Though the presidential campaigns take most of Americans' focus during election cycles, there are hundreds of other races at the federal, state, and local levels across the country, including a handful of races that could shape the future of U.S. gambling.
Here is an overview of the five most important races impacting legal sports betting, iGaming, and more up for determination on this fall’s ballot:
Presidential Election
Possible outcomes: Minnesota sports betting, expanded Texas gambling
The upcoming presidential election will shape a wide swath of U.S. policy and gambling is no exception. Though it's far from the top of mind for most voters, the 47th president of the United States will indirectly, and perhaps intentionally, shape gambling policy.
If Kamala Harris wins the presidency, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz will resign his office to serve as vice president. That will make incumbent Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan Minnesota's new chief executive, a move that could boost the state’s tribal gaming stakeholders.
Minnesota tribal gaming leaders have lauded Walz for his favorable policies toward Native American interests. Flanagan, who would be the nation’s first female Native American governor, helped shape and lead many of those policies, which are expected to continue under her potential governorship. This could mean new gaming opportunities on tribal lands, including sportsbooks at Native American casinos, as well as tribal-run mobile books statewide.
Texas will be the big focus for online sports betting legalization in 2025, DraftKings CEO Jason Robins said during today's earnings call
— Ryan Butler (@ButlerBets) May 3, 2024
Meanwhile, a Donald Trump victory could, inadvertently, accelerate gambling in Texas.
Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick has been an outspoken gambling opponent, thwarting sports betting and casino legalization efforts in his role as the powerful president of the state Senate. He has also been a prominent Trump supporter in conservative media and would be a leading contender for a cabinet or other executive-level role if the former president returns to the White House.
Texas has long been a gambling holdout, but without Patrick blocking increasingly popular legislation, gambling expansion in the nation’s second-largest state could be closer than ever.
Minnesota Legislature
Possible outcomes: Expanded Minnesota tribal gaming
Besides the potential for a new governor, Minnesota could also see new parties control both chambers of the state legislature.
Minnesota is one of the few states with elections this upcoming cycle that could see the controlling party lose power. The state’s Democrat-affiliated Democratic-Famer-Labor Party technically controls the state Senate by one seat and the 134-member House by six. A special election will determine control of the Senate, while every House member is up for election this fall, giving Republicans a chance for control.
Minnesota's 2025 sports betting hopes will be shaped not just by Gov. Tim Walz and this year's presidential election but the state's down-ballot races; the lone Senate district race up for election will determine control of the chamber; all 134 House seats are also on the ballot
— Ryan Butler (@ButlerBets) August 7, 2024
If the DFL holds both chambers, there could be a clearer pathway to legal sports betting through Minnesota’s gaming tribes, especially if Flanagan takes office. Democrats have supported a tribal-exclusive model in recent years, but have not been able to pass legislation over GOP opposition.
Republicans have backed a more expansive sports betting market that could incorporate the state’s horse tracks and potentially charitable organizations. Republican control of one or both chambers could force Democrats to compromise their position; or, more likely, prolong the stalemate that has prohibited legal sports betting.
Missouri Ballot Measure
Possible outcomes: Missouri mobile and retail sportsbooks
Missouri’s sports betting ballot measure would bring mobile and retail sportsbooks to the Show Me State, ending years of legislative logjams and bringing legal wagering to the home of some of the nation’s most prominent pro sports teams.
Recent polling has shown support near the 50% threshold required to bring legal wagering via a straightforward yes-or-no vote on the upcoming ballot. Still, even supporters worry that conservative, anti-gambling opposition could make this a closer race than they hoped.
Missouri has the chance to become the first - and likely only - state to legalize sports betting this year; a referendum will be on this year’s ballot that will allow voters to approve mobile and retail sportsbooks in the state
— Ryan Butler (@ButlerBets) August 13, 2024
The measure is being boosted by pro teams such as the St. Louis Cardinals and Kansas City Chiefs as well as DraftKings and FanDuel. Notably, the state’s casinos have been less vocal, in part due to a regulatory structure they worry could give the aforementioned sports betting market share leaders another leg up.
Proponents are also monitoring a lawsuit that threatens to retroactively deny legal sports betting or strip the legalization question from the ballot entirely. While advocates believe the lawsuit is frivolous, it could underscore the opposition that remains for legal gambling, especially outside the Kansas City and St. Louis metros.
Virginia Casino
Possible outcomes: A fifth Virginia casino, curtailed iCasino chances
Virginia voters could approve the state’s fifth brick-and-mortar casino at the polls this November. It could, with the same vote, handicap its chances at online casino gambling.
Petersburg, Virginia voters will be able to approve a resort-style casino. It would join Hard Rock in Bristol, Caesars in Danville, BetRivers in Portsmouth, and a future Boyd Gaming-run property in Norfolk. Richmond had been set for the final casino, but voters in Virginia’s capital rejected the property – twice.
I am far from the first person to put this together, but the pending Cordish Gaming casino in Virginia is going to present another big obstacle in another potential online casino gaming state
— Ryan Butler (@ButlerBets) May 8, 2024
If approved, casino operator Cordish Group will have the rights to develop a facility in Petersburg, about a 30-minute drive from Richmond. The company is one of the industry’s most vociferous iGaming opponents, meaning it could present a powerful voice against potential future online casino gaming expansion in the Commonwealth.
Arkansas Casino
Possible outcomes: A fourth Arkansas mobile sportsbook, iCasino
After years of litigation, a voter-approved casino is set to open in Arkansas’ Pope County. It will have to survive one more challenge.
A measure on this year’s ballot is seeking to repeal the authorization for the Pope County casino approved by voters in 2018. The original casino faced years of financial, logistical and legal hardships before the Cherokee Nation earned the right to manage the property. Now Oklahoma’s Choctaw Nation, which lost the rights to manage the property, is largely funding the campaign to, once again, stop the new facility.
ICYMI: Arkansas could be positioned for a 4th mobile sportsbook after state regulators last week awarded a gaming license to Cherokee Nation Entertainment for a Pope County casino; Arkansas' current mobile sportsbooks are BetSaracen, Betly and Oaklawn Sports
— Ryan Butler (@ButlerBets) July 2, 2024
The Cherokees have argued this is nothing more than a rival casino operator trying to stop competition. The Choctaws have argued that this measure gives Arkansas voters in Pope County the right to keep or reject the casino; though the 2018 initiative was supported by a majority of voters statewide, it was not backed by a majority in Pope County.
Arkansas’ three other casinos offer individually-branded online sports betting apps. Some gambling stakeholders have also pushed for them to be able to offer online slots and table games as well. Should the Pope County property remain, it too would be eligible for an online sportsbook and potential iCasino platform.
