A lot can change in a month. Just ask Kamala Harris.
About a month ago, the vice president was in line to be the Democratic running mate of a president, Joe Biden, who was an underdog of +500 or longer on the oddsboard to win this November's presidential election.
Harris was priced at +750 at bet365 on July 14, the day after an assassination attempt on Republican Donald Trump in Pennsylvania.
But as former U.K. prime minister Harold Macmillan once said: "Events, dear boy, events."
A historic chain of events in July shook up US election odds and elevated Harris to the Democratic nomination. And now, on the backs of those events and some favorable polling, Harris has been elevated to the betting favorite for the presidential election at several online sportsbooks in the Canadian province of Ontario, where such wagering is legal.
Odds for the U.S. presidential election have tightened at regulated sportsbooks in Ontario. Opinions vary as well.
— Geoff Zochodne (@GeoffZochodne) August 8, 2024
Kamala Harris is as short as -125 to win (at Fitzdares). Trump is also priced as short as -125 (at Betano). Others, such as Pinnacle, have it all square. pic.twitter.com/qyMgJ92cWn
As of Thursday morning, Harris was a -118 favorite at bet365 to win in November, with Trump's odds out to -106. At Fitzdares in Ontario, Harris was a -125 favorite and Trump was priced at -115. Moreover, at Bet99, Harris was a -125 fave, while Trump's odds were -115.
The market is not in lockstep, though. At BetMGM, Harris and Trump were priced equally at -111. At bwin, both candidates were -110 to win the White House. Pinnacle, meanwhile, was offering Trump -108 to win the presidential election, while pricing the "Field (any other candidate)" at -108 as well.
However, at Betano, Trump was still the favorite, sitting at odds of -125 Thursday morning, while Harris had shortened to -111.
The tightening of odds for the presidential election reflects the tightening in public opinion polling. RealClearPolitics' poll average showed Harris leading as of Thursday morning, at 47.6%, with Trump close behind at 47.1%.
Despite positive reactions from Democratic voters online following Tuesday's announcement, Kamala Harris' presidential election odds were unchanged after selecting Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate.@ButlerBets has more ⤵️https://t.co/muX4CsaVZi
— Covers (@Covers) August 6, 2024
Harris and the Democrats have managed to gain momentum recently with the change in candidate and the recent selection of Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as the veep's running mate. The Democratic National Convention later this month in Chicago could give the party’s prospects this November another boost.
That said, now that the Democrats have firmed up their top of the ticket, Republicans have a clear idea of who to target. Those attacks have already begun, including Trump's VP pick, Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance, accusing Walz of "stolen valor" in connection with the latter's military service.
But, for the moment, the Democrats are riding high, and the election has become much more of a 50-50 proposition than the clear advantage once held by the Republicans and Trump when facing the prospect of another Biden campaign.
