Vice President Kamala Harris finds herself in a close tie with Donald Trump, at least when it comes to betting odds. Historian Allan Lichtman, who has correctly forecast the winner of every presidential election since 1984 except for Al Gore's loss in 2000, has chosen Harris as the candidate to beat.
"Kamala Harris will be the next president of the United States - at least that's my prediction for the outcome of the race," Lichtman claims in a seven-minute video for the New York Times.
Despite this, the candidates are tied entering the first weekend of September – exactly where the odds have remained for the past two weeks.
| Candidate | Odds to win 2024 US election at  |
Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
 Kamala Harris |
-110 | 52.3% |
 Donald Trump |
-110 | 52.3% |
Latest US Presidential Election odds updates 2024
Trump was listed as the slight favorite in early August, but his lead evaporated following a surge of Harris support. Not even a boost from former Presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. – who announced in late August he would abandon his presidential campaign to offer his support to Trump – has stemmed the blue tide.
The question now is whether Harris will see any odds traction with the return of Biden, who has kept a low profile since formally withdrawing from the 2024 presidential race July 21 He'll join Harris for a Labor Day rally in Pittsburgh.
With the U.S. election now just nine weeks away, here are the election betting odds for the 47th president of the United States.
2024 US presidential election odds
To give context to the next election odds, we've provided the implied probability along with each candidate's odds of becoming the next president of the United States in 2024.
| Candidate | Odds to win 2024 US election at |
Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| Kamala Harris |
-110 | 52.3% |
| Donald Trump |
-110 | 52.3% |
| JD Vance |
+8,000 | 1.2% |
| Michelle Obama |
+8,000 | 1.2% |
| Nikki Haley |
+10,000 | 1% |
| Hillary Clinton |
+15,000 | 0.7% |
| Tim Walz |
+15,000 | 0.7% |
| Gavin Newsom |
+20,000 | 0.5% |
| Gretchen Whitmer |
+20,000 | 0.5% |
 Bernie Sanders |
+20,000 | 0.5% |
Odds courtesy of bet365 as of Sept. 5, 2024. Implied probability in betting is the likelihood of an event occurring as inferred from the odds offered by a sportsbook or the market.
Favorites to win the 2024 US presidential election
Shortly after the 2020 inauguration, Harris was atop the presidential odds board at +350, with Biden close behind at +400, and Trump in third place at +650.
Those odds have seen frantic movement since. Harris is now as low as -110 and Trump is at -110 following a flurry of wild developments impacting the race. No other candidate is within striking distance from an odds perspective, with JD Vance and Michelle Obama next in line at +8,000.
Kamala Harris' odds of winning the 2024 US presidential election
With Biden's drop out, the most straightforward transition for the Democrats was to pivot to Vice President Harris. The transition went smoother than Harris or many Democrats could have dreamed. She secured critical party support within 48 hours, allowing her to quickly pivot to the general campaign.
However, Harris had a rocky tenure as VP and struggled to break ground with her two biggest projects: border migration and national voting reform. She might be better on the debate podium than Biden, but she's also even less liked, with her approval rating sitting at just 38.4% before the President exited the race. That said, the number has jumped substantially since Biden bowed out with her approval rating at 43.8% in the latest FiveThirtyEight polling data.
Harris saw another boost now after settling on a running mate: Minnesota Governor Tim Walz. Her decision kicked off a four-day tour of battleground states and the potential for more positive momentum heading into the Democratic National Convention. The closing vice president odds had Walz at -300 in the hours leading up to the announcement, well ahead of Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro (+225), who had been the consensus favorite in the proceeding weeks.
Donald Trump's odds of winning the 2024 US presidential election
Anyone who thought Trump would fade away after losing the 2020 election was wrong. Trump capitalized on discontent toward Biden's first term to position himself as high as a -250 favorite after the first debate, the failed attempt on his life, and a stirring speech at the Republican National Convention.
It wasn't so much that Trump impressed in the debate. His rants featured many of the grievance politics and lies that have made him such a divisive figure. However, he at least displayed the enthusiasm that has won him support, while Biden's performance lived up to the nickname of "Sleepy" Joe Biden that Trump bestowed upon him during the last election cycle.
That said, it hasn't been all smooth sailing for Trump, who has seen his odds rise and plummet over the last few years. We've seen his odds peak at plus money on multiple occasions, especially when legal troubles reared their heads and rivals within the GOP gained steam. However, Trump proved his MAGA brand of politics is in lockstep with Republican voters when he destroyed the other GOP candidates in the primaries without even bothering to take part in the debates.
He has also sidestepped the brunt of legal damage despite facing four trials. His legal team has managed to push most of those trials until after the election, and while he was recently found guilty of 34 charges in his New York hush money trial, his odds only briefly shifted to +120 before immediately bouncing back to -150 and getting even shorter from there.
His biggest obstacle to the presidency may be himself. With Harris upending the race, Trump has been unable (or unwilling) to adjust accordingly.
Robert Kennedy Jr.'s odds of winning the 2024 US presidential election
Robert Kennedy Jr withdrew from the 2024 presidential race on Aug. 23. What had seemed like a potentially competitive bid a year earlier steadily became an impossible longshot.
The 69-year-old scion of the prestigious Kennedy family, Kennedy emerged as a dark horse last year when he announced he would run for the Democratic Party nomination. He surged up to +900 on the presidential odds board following interviews with Joe Rogan and Piers Morgan, but it soon became apparent that many of his supporters were conservative-leaning and he had no chance of actually winning the party leadership.
After plummeting in polls, RFK Jr. announced in October that he would run as an independent. Considering that no third-party candidate has even come close to being competitive in an election (Ross Perot gaining 19% of the popular vote in 1992 was the best showing from an independent in the last century), it was a long-shot campaign to begin with.
Things didn't get easier for RFK Jr. A series of bizarre media appearances followed by Harris' galvanizing early campaign erased whatever momentum he had. By the time he dropped out his odds were as high as +15000 at some sportsbooks, trailing multiple candidates who weren't running for office.
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More US election odds
2024 presidential election popular vote odds
Odds courtesy of bet365 as of Sept. 5, 2024.
The winner of the popular vote has failed to secure the presidency just twice since 1888: George W. Bush finished just over 538,000 votes behind Al Gore in 2000, while Trump came up nearly 2.9 million votes shy of Hilary Clinton's tally in 2016.
2024 presidential election key battleground odds
Noted political analyst Nate Silver has identified six states expected to have the largest impact on whether one of the candidates will secure the 270 electoral college votes necessary to win the election. Here's a look at the latest betting across those six battleground states:
| State | Kamala Harris |
Donald Trump |
|---|---|---|
| Pennsylvania | -120 | -120 |
| Michigan | -188 | +137 |
| North Carolina | +137 | -188 |
| Wisconsin | -175 | +125 |
| Georgia | +137 | -188 |
| Arizona | +120 | -163 |
Odds courtesy of bet365 as of Sept. 5, 2024.
2024 presidential election Democratic candidate closing odds
| Nomination Winner | |
Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| Kamala Harris | -10,000 | 99% |
| Michelle Obama | +3,300 | 2.9% |
| Hillary Clinton | +5,000 | 2% |
| Gavin Newsom | +10,000 | 1% |
| Gretchen Whitmer | +15,000 | 0.7% |
Harris was a monumental favorite from the moment Biden withdrew.
Winning party odds
| Party | |
Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| Democratic | -110 | 52.3% |
| Republican | -110 | 52.3% |
| Independent | +10,000 | 1% |
Odds courtesy of bet365 as of Sept. 5, 2024.
Gender of next presidential election winner
| Gender | |
Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| Male | -334 | 77% |
| Female | +240 | 29.4% |
Not only has the United States never had a female president, but only one had even secured a party nomination before Harris — Hillary Clinton, who lost to Trump in 2016.
US presidential election winners
| Year | Winner | Electoral votes | Popular % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1789 | George Washington | 69 | NA |
| 1792 | George Washington | 132 | NA |
| 1796 | John Adams | 71 | NA |
| 1800 | Thomas Jefferson | 73 | NA |
| 1804 | George Washington | 162 | NA |
| 1808 | James Madison | 122 | NA |
| 1812 | James Madison | 128 | NA |
| 1816 | James Monroe | 183 | NA |
| 1820 | James Monroe | 231 | NA |
| 1824 | John Quincy Adams | 84 | 30.9 |
| 1828 | Andrew Jackson | 178 | 56.0 |
| 1832 | Andrew Jackson | 219 | 54.2 |
| 1836 | Martin Van Buren | 170 | 50.8 |
| 1840 | William Henry Harrison | 234 | 52.9 |
| 1844 | James K. Polk | 170 | 49.5 |
| 1848 | Zachary Taylor | 163 | 47.3 |
| 1852 | Franklin Pierce | 254 | 50.8 |
| 1856 | James Buchanan | 174 | 45.3 |
| 1860 | Abraham Lincoln | 180 | 39.3 |
| 1864 | Abraham Lincoln | 212 | 55.0 |
| 1868 | Ulysses S. Grant | 214 | 56.7 |
| 1872 | Ulysses S. Grant | 286 | 55.6 |
| 1876 | Rutherford B. Hayes | 184 | 48.0 |
| 1880 | James A. Garfield | 214 | 48.3 |
| 1884 | Grover Cleveland | 219 | 48.5 |
| 1888 | Benjamin Harrison | 233 | 47.8 |
| 1892 | Grover Cleveland | 277 | 46.1 |
| 1896 | William McKinley | 271 | 51.0 |
| 1900 | William McKinley | 292 | 51.7 |
| 1904 | Theodore Roosevelt | 336 | 56.4 |
| 1908 | William Howard Taft | 321 | 51.6 |
| 1912 | Woodrow Wilson | 435 | 41.8 |
| 1916 | Woodrow Wilson | 277 | 49.2 |
| 1920 | Warren G. Harden | 404 | 60.3 |
| 1924 | Calvin Coolidge | 382 | 54.1 |
| 1928 | Herbert Hoover | 444 | 58.0 |
| 1932 | Franklin D. Roosevelt | 472 | 57.3 |
| 1936 | Franklin D. Roosevelt | 523 | 60.2 |
| 1940 | Franklin D. Roosevelt | 449 | 54.7 |
| 1944 | Franklin D. Roosevelt | 432 | 53.3 |
| 1948 | Harry S. Truman | 303 | 49.4 |
| 1952 | Dwight D. Eisenhower | 442 | 54.9 |
| 1956 | Dwight D. Eisenhower | 457 | 57.4 |
| 1960 | John F. Kennedy | 303 | 49.7 |
| 1964 | Lyndon B. Johnson | 486 | 51.1 |
| 1968 | Richard M. Nixon | 301 | 43.4 |
| 1972 | Richard M. Nixon | 520 | 60.7 |
| 1976 | Jimmy Carter | 297 | 50.0 |
| 1980 | Ronald W. Reagan | 489 | 50.4 |
| 1984 | Ronald W. Reagan | 525 | 58.8 |
| 1988 | George H.W. Bush | 426 | 53.4 |
| 1992 | Bill Clinton | 370 | 43.0 |
| 1996 | Bill Clinton | 379 | 49.2 |
| 2000 | George W. Bush | 271 | 47.9 |
| 2004 | George W. Bush | 286 | 50.7 |
| 2008 | Barack Obama | 365 | 52.9 |
| 2012 | Barack Obama | 332 | 50.9 |
| 2016 | Donald Trump | 304 | 46.0 |
| 2020 | Joe Biden | 306 | 51.3 |
Only three US Presidents have received 60% or more of the popular vote since the metric was recorded. They include Warren G. Harding in 1920 (60.3), Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1936 (60.2), and Richard Nixon in 1972 (60.7).
US presidential election trends
- Only 38% of presidents have won consecutive elections since 1900.
- The average age of the president at inauguration is 55.
- A candidate has won the popular vote but lost the election five times in US presidential election history.
- James Buchanan is the only bachelor to be elected president.
2024 US presidential election key upcoming dates
| Date | Event |
|---|---|
| November 5, 2024 | Election Day |
Betting on the election in the United States
US states do not allow for election betting in an effort to protect election integrity and the democratic process. Legal betting sites in the United States don’t offer election odds to Americans.
Betting on the US election from Canada
Canadians have plenty of options when it comes to placing wagers on the US election. The top political betting sites on our list are permitted to offer election odds within the regulated Ontario sports betting marketplace, along with all other Canadian provinces. Additionally, bettors in other countries can bet on the U.S. election.
US election betting odds FAQs
Yes. Some betting sites provide odds on the U.S. presidential election, but betting on elections is not legal in the United States and state-regulated books do not offer these odds.
Kamala Harris leads at -125 odds while Donald Trump has even odds at +100.
Betting odds are one of the indicators of public sentiment regarding the outcome of elections. When people place bets on political events, they are expressing their opinions and predictions based on the information available to them at the time. However, while betting odds can provide insights into public sentiment, they are not infallible predictors. Political events are complex, and unexpected developments can occur, leading to shifts in public opinion. Additionally, betting odds are influenced by the amount of money wagered on each outcome.
Betting odds for a presidential election are a way of expressing the probability of a particular outcome happening. The odds represent the bookmakers' assessment of the likelihood of a candidate winning, and are presented in different formats, including fractional odds, decimal odds, and moneyline odds. lower odds indicate a higher likelihood of winning, while higher odds suggest a lower probability. It's important to note that odds can change based on betting activity, polling data, and various other factors. They reflect the bookmakers' assessment of the situation and the balance of bets placed by the public.
