Thursday sees another tasty Premier League clash as Leeds welcome Aston Villa to Elland Road, with new manager Jesse Marsch ready to make his home bow. Can Aston Villa ruin the party and push Leeds further towards relegation, or will Leeds be able to get a hugely important three points?
Don’t miss our Leeds vs. Aston Villa picks and predictions.
Leeds vs Aston Villa match odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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Leeds vs Aston Villa betting tips
Predictions made on 3/8/2022 at 4:10 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Leeds vs Aston Villa game info
• Location: Elland Road, Leeds, England
• Date: Thursday, March 10, 2022
• Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
• TV: Peacock, DAZN
Leeds vs Aston Villa betting preview
Weather
It’s going to be a miserable day in Leeds, with the skies cloudy, although that should clear just before kickoff. Fortunately, there’ll be no rain, and temperatures in the lower-50s should be fine for both sets of players.
Injuries
Aston Villa: Lucas Digne LB (Questionable), Ezri Konsa Ngoyo CD (Questionable), Marvelous Nakamba CM (Out), Carney Chukwuemeka CM (Out).
Leeds: Liam Cooper CB (Out), Diego Llorente CB (Questionable), Kalvin Phillips CM (Out), Tyler Roberts ST (Out), Leo Fuhr Hjelde LB (Out).
Leeds vs Aston Villa predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Side analysis
Despite this game being tucked away on a Thursday, it can’t be overstated how important this is to Leeds in particular. Aston Villa are sitting comfortably in the middle of the table. It would take something absolutely extraordinary to see them relegated but they’re 12 points behind the European slots, which realistically puts them out of contention.
The table doesn’t paint such a calm picture for Leeds though, and their supporters will be very worried about their Premier League future. With that Saudi cash injection, it looks like Newcastle are probably safe. Norwich, and to a lesser extent Watford, look like they’re probably going down but Burnley, Everton, Leeds and Brentford all sit within six points of each other and there are valid reasons why any of those four could get relegated.
Leeds’ American revolution started in earnest on Saturday with a 1-0 loss to Leicester. It was a promising performance for Jesse Marsch’s first in the dugout, but ultimately, they left without a point to show for it. The game was fairly close and there were periods in which Leeds looked the most likely to score. They took more shots, but only four of 19 were on target, which perhaps isn’t a surprise when Dan James, not a traditional striker, is leading the line.
They soaked up Leicester’s pressure and generally limited their attempts in front of the goal. Marsch has instantly improved their defense, although that’s probably not too difficult of an achievement. The fullbacks did still get up the pitch and join in attacks, but it was noticeable that they weren’t quite so gung-ho as they were under Marcelo Bielsa.
One of the lynchpins of Bielsa’s style — speed on the break — was still very much present, and the midfield and attack did a great job getting up the pitch, but they do lack real quality there. The lack of quality was also noticeable with the defending for Leicester’s goal being very poor. Marsch is likely going to set his team up in a 4-2-3-1 once again, and there’s a chance we might see Patrick Bamford, who was on the bench at the weekend. Dan James’ pace can cause problems, as we saw against Leicester, but his lack of final product is a concern.
Steven Gerrard will have his Aston Villa team set up in a 4-3-1-2, and is likely to keep the same starting lineup who put four goals past Southampton on Saturday. Both of his front two, Danny Ings and Ollie Watkins, found themselves on the scoresheet then, as did Phillipe Coutinho, who sits behind in the hole and creates. Gerrard has had many plaudits since arriving in the midlands but some of the hyperbole probably got a bit too much after a good start.
Now that the hype has died down, we can see Aston Villa for what they are: a well-organized team packed with quality, who can, on their day, give everyone in the Premier League a good game. The quality that they have in the attacking positions is very impressive, especially when you consider the strength in depth that’ll likely see Leon Bailey, Bertrand Troare, and Emi Buendia on the bench.
Even without Konsa and Digne, this Villa defense is stronger than Leeds and the team is now well balanced, with a talented backline and an exciting attack. It's a tough game to call although I’m still not a believer that this Leeds team has enough quality to stay up. Aston Villa have immense quality and the depth to make changes if Gerrard’s initial tactics aren’t working.
The draw could be good value at +250, and double chance on draw/Villa is the safe option at -225 but I’m leaning toward backing Aston Villa at +150.
Prediction: Aston Villa (+150)
Over/Under analysis
The Under has landed in 53.8% of Villa’s games on the road, but that’s slightly flawed given it includes some heavy defeats before Steven Gerrard took over. If you look at Villa’s past six away games they’ve had three or more goals on just one occasion.
Given how Jesse Marsch will be setting up his team, and Villa’s recent road record, the +110 on offer for Under 2.5 goals is absolutely huge value.
Prediction: Under 2.5 Goals (+110)
Best bet
No team has conceded more goals than Leeds with 61, but their past performances under Marcelo Biesla are almost irrelevant. Bielsa treated defending as an afterthought, but Marsch is aware that it’s the area he most needs to improve this team on. Their issue will also include scoring enough goals to survive while also keeping it tight at the back.
All of that bodes very well for Under 2.5 goals in this game. Given how Marsch will be setting up his team, and Villa’s recent road record, the +110 on offer for Under 2.5 goals is absolutely huge value. Don’t overthink it, grab that price.
Pick: Under 2.5 Goals (+110)
