Aston Villa vs Tottenham Picks and Predictions: "You're a Wizard, Harry"

Saturday sees an interesting battle in the Premier League with Aston Villa vs. Tottenham Hotspur. Both clubs are in a battle for European competition next season. Spurs entered the weekend sixth in the Premier League table, with Aston Villa two spots back and just three points behind.

With Unai Emery’s Aston Villa in great form, can they use their home advantage and stake a claim for European competition next season? Don’t miss our Aston Villa vs Tottenham Hotspur betting picks and predictions for Saturday, May 13.

Aston Villa vs Tottenham best odds

Aston Villa vs Tottenham picks and predictions

We’ve got six Premier League games on Saturday, but the pick of the bunch has to be Aston Villa vs. Tottenham Hotspur. These two clubs are in a battle to play in Europe next season, whether that’s the Europa League or Europa Conference League. 

Just three points and two places separate the two teams. Spurs won their most recent game, a 1-0 victory over Crystal Palace, but that was their first win in five matches. Aston Villa had been in great form over the past few months but just as we’ve reached the crunch point of the season, they’ve hit the proverbial iceberg, losing two games on the bounce.

The two clubs have had very different seasons but now are pretty much in the same place in the Premier League. The biggest difference has been both teams’ management. Aston Villa hired Unai Emery after sacking Steven Gerrard and his approach has reinvigorated the club. We’ve seen Emery’s success in his native Spain and even if a spell in charge of Arsenal didn’t work out, it’s clear that he’s a truly elite coach. He’s made the team a more cohesive unit, both in attack and defense. 

Tottenham’s season has been defined by cycling through managers. First, they sacked Antonio Conte and then they hired Cristian Stellini as caretaker before sacking him and handing the keys to Ryan Mason until the end of the season. Spurs, unlike Aston Villa, are a team who don’t know what they want in a manager and are unable to find the coach that they need.

Sometimes you don’t need a truly elite coach if you have a superstar in your team. Tottenham are fortunate that they have this in Harry Kane. We’ve got so used to seeing his brilliance in the Premier League that we’ve really begun to take it for granted. Kan’s the focus of our best bet, where we’ll be backing him to score at +140.

The miraculous, unbelievable season of Erling Haaland has perhaps made Kane’s season go under the radar. We’ve got so used to Haaland hat-tricks in that Man City superteam that Kane scoring 26 league goals in 35 Premier League games is an afterthought — and it really shouldn’t be.

Harry Kane at +140 to score against Villa simply has to be our best bet of the game. His goal tally shows he has scored 74% as many goals as Premier League games played. Throughout the season he’s averaged 3.5 shots per game.

Most importantly is Kane’s form. Frankly, it’s red-hot. In his past 11 games for club and country, he’s scored 10 goals, blanking just twice. This is a striker who, despite the struggles of his team, still manages to take the chances he gets and find the back of the net. When the ball falls to Harry Kane, you see him scoring more often than not. 

The odds imply a 41.7% chance that Kane scores, but his goal record shows that it should be higher. Likewise, if you look at his expected goals per 90 minutes it’s on 0.6, a stat which again indicates that the +140 odds are too big. 

When the odds are that big and not priced right, you have to bet on them and be confident that Kane offers value for Tottenham on Sunday.

My best bet: Harry Kane to score (+140 at FanDuel)

Aston Villa vs Tottenham side analysis

Emery will send his Aston Villa team out in a 4-2-3-1 and it’s served him well this season. The central defensive pairing of Tyrone Mings and Ezri Konsa has been a revelation this season and far better than many had thought, with Mings previously looking like a player on his last legs. 

Alex Moreno and Ashley Young offer experience at fullback and World Cup-winning Emi Martinez is a solid goalkeeper. The Douglas Luiz and John McGinn pivot in midfielder provides the platform for Villa’s attacking talents. We’ll probably see Leon Bailey and Jacob Ramsey on the wings, but Emiliano Buendia has been exceptional behind the front man, and as for Ollie Watkins, he’s become one of England’s best strikers this season and has validated Emery’s decision to offload Danny Ings.

Spurs’ 3-4-3 is well known at this point and Ryan Mason has continued using the formation that Conte preferred for such a long period, most likely because the player pool is best suited to it. We’ll have three at the back with Cristian Romero orchestrating the backline, Pedro Porro and Ben Davies at wingbacks and dropping in to make it five at the back when they’re in defense. Oliver Skipp and Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg will be in the engine room of midfield. Up front, it’s business as usual with Harry Kane down the middle and any two from Dejan Kulusevski, Richarlison, and Son Heung-Min on either side of him.

It's hard to pick a winning team here and I’d personally stay away from the moneyline markets, but if I were forced to choose, I’d back a draw at +270.

Aston Villa vs Tottenham Over/Under analysis

The Total Goals market sees Over 2.5 goals as the most likely option at odds of -132, with the Under at +115. I don’t have a strong lean, but if forced I’d probably take the bigger price on offer with the Under.

That said it’s worth looking at the numbers to decide your best move here. Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52.9% of Aston Villa games at Villa Park, and has been a winning bet in five of the nine Premier League games at the stadium in 2023. 

The Over has also been prevalent for Spurs this season, especially on their travels, where we’ve seen 58.8% of their games hitting the mark of three or more goals. Six of nine games on the road in 2023 have seen three or more goals. Notable we’ve seen a combined 22 goals in their past four away games.

Aston Villa vs Tottenham game info

Aston Villa vs Tottenham key injuries

Aston Villa: Matty Cash RB (Questionable).
Tottenham: Rodrigo Bentancur CM (Out), Hugo Lloris GK (Out), Clement Lenglet CB (Questionable), Ryan Sessegnon LB (Questionable).

Aston Villa vs Tottenham recent form

Teams	Last five matches
Aston Villa	W-D-W-L-L
Tottenham	L-L-D-L-W

Aston Villa vs Tottenham weather

Temperatures will be around 60 degrees at kickoff, after a day with clear skies.

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