Benfica vs Inter Milan Picks and Predictions: Benfica Fills the Net

The Champions League enters the quarterfinal stage on Tuesday, and Benfica hopes to take a big step towards being one of the final four teams in contention when they host Inter Milan. 

Unbeaten thus far in the competition, the Portuguese side will be hoping to replicate their group stage results where they beat an Italian side twice. Meanwhile, the Nerazzurri will be desperate to end a six-match streak in all competitions without victory, and attempt to secure at least one piece of silverware this campaign.

Can the Eagles continue their high-flying ways, or will Inter spoil the party at the Estadio da Luz? Let’s jump right into our Benfica vs Inter Milan picks and predictions for Tuesday, April 11. 

Benfica vs Inter Milan best odds

Benfica vs Inter Milan picks and predictions

Benfica are a well-oiled machine, capable of pouring on pressure and piling up goals in the blink of an eye. In fact, their 23 goals scored through eight matches in the Champions League trail only Napoli in terms of scoring output. I'm going with Benfica to score multiple goals as my best bet for Tuesday’s match.

Unlike some teams who rely on just one player to be the primary goal scorer, Benfica are getting goals from all areas of their attack. They’ve scored multiple goals in 10 of their 12 Champions League fixtures this season — including their four qualifiers before the proper tournament — and just three of those 10 saw multiple goals scored by the same player.

While it would’ve been easy for their season to be derailed by the sale of star midfielder Enzo Fernandez to Chelsea in January, the side has barely missed a beat. They defeated Club Bruges by a 7-1 aggregate in the Round of 16, including a 5-1 win at home in the second leg where they didn’t concede until the final minutes.

Inter Milan can’t win of late, but they’re not conceding many goals. However, they haven't been facing many multi-faceted attacks. When they have, they’ve often looked to be at sixes and sevens. That’s been doubly so in Champions League play, especially on the road. 

Two goals allowed at Bayern followed a trip to Barcelona in which they conceded three times. In fact, Inter’s defense has been breached for multiple goals in 10 of their 20 away matches this season, including lowly Spezia and Monza in Serie A play. They managed to miraculously keep a clean sheet at Porto in the last round, somehow advancing despite an xG against of 1.87 on the day. 

They won’t replicate that feat in Portugal on Tuesday. The attack of Joao Mario, Rafa, and Goncalo Ramos will be far too much for Inter’s struggling defense, who will be without Milan Skriniar, to keep at bay.

They couldn’t keep Salernitana from breaching their defense late in Friday’s match and I see no reason why Benfica won’t enjoy even more success, so I’m very happy to get Over 1.5 team goals at positive odds. 

My best bet: Benfica team total Over 1.5 (+138 at FanDuel)

Benfica vs Inter Milan side analysis

One could be worried to see Benfica’s injury list containing names like Goncalo Guedes and Julian Draxler, but they've been playing without both midfielders for a bit now and should be fine without them. However, there could be some concern at the back, with Nicolas Otamendi suspended for the match.

Nevertheless, Benfica will be riding high having won five of six at home in Champions League including qualifiers, and with the loss to Porto on the weekend being the first time they’ve lost at home all season in any competition, It’s why they’re favored on the 3-way line — albeit at positive odds.

Inter Milan will be without Skriniar in defense, while midfielder Hakan Calhanoglu also misses out due to an injury in midfield. Romelu Lukaku will also likely return to the bench after failing to score against Salernitana at the weekend.

Their 1-1 draw saw their winless run go to six matches. Away from home, they’ve also gone six straight without a win, losing two in that span. In fact, they’ve lost as many matches this season away from the San Siro as they’ve won. In Champions League play, they’ve won just once and conceded five goals in four matches.

Inter are struggling to score at the moment, with a total of three goals in six matches. More importantly, they’re not keeping clean sheets, with only four shutouts in 20 away fixtures. Benfica are capable of scoring in bunches and are near unbeatable at home. Back the hosts to get the win at plus money. 

Benfica vs Inter Milan Over/Under analysis

There is value in the Over 2.5 market if you’re bold enough to chase it. Benfica’s last seven matches at home have seen six go past that mark, as have 16 of their 21 matches in all competitions at home. Nine of their last 15 at all venues have gone Over as well. 

Inter’s inability to score, however, could be why the Under wins and why it’s so heavily expected by the betting public. Just once in their last six away has the total gone past two goals, with two of those matches being scoreless draws. In their last 13 matches at all venues, the Under 2.5 has come through on 11 occasions. In nine of those 13 matches, only one side has even scored.

For that reason, I would stay away from the total in this match. I love Benfica to find the back of the net twice, but the third goal is the tricky one. Inter can’t be relied upon to score at the moment, and I’m not sure Benfica will want to push for a third if they get that 2-0 lead. Instead, stick with my best bet or play something live.  

Benfica vs Inter Milan game info

Benfica vs Inter Milan key injuries

Benfica: Goncalo Guedes F (Out), Julian Draxler M (Out), Nicolas Otamendi D (Out). 
Inter Milan: Milan Skriniar D (Out), Hakan Calhanoglu M (Out). 

Benfica vs Inter Milan weather

Tuesday’s conditions in Lisbon will be gorgeous, with mid-60s expected at kickoff and temperatures in the upper 50s towards the end. No rain is in the forecast and the skies will be very clear, although there will be some wind gusts into the 20 mph range. 

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