The Champions League is back and the quarterfinal stage sees two former European Champions meet. Benfica dismantled Ajax to reach this stage and have the honor of hosting Liverpool, who beat Inter Milan.
Will Liverpool be able to take a lead back to Anfield or will Benfica take advantage of their home crowd and claim a famous victory? Let's find out in our Benfica vs. Liverpool tips and predictions.
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Benfica vs Liverpool match odds
Benfica vs Liverpool betting tips
- Prediction: Liverpool ML (-255)
- Prediction: Over 2.5 goals (-162)
- Best bet: Ramos to get booked (+370)
Predictions made on 4/4/2022 at 10:50 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Benfica vs Liverpool game info
• Location: Estadio da Luz, Lisbon, Portugal
• Date: Tuesday, April 5, 2022
• Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
• TV: DAZN, Paramount+
Benfica vs Liverpool betting preview
Weather
There’ll be rain earlier in the day but by the time the game kicks off, it’ll be grey and cloudy with temperatures just about 50 degrees.
Injuries
Benfica: Lucas Verissimo CB (Out), Rodrigo Pinho FW (Out), Adel Taarabt CM (Questionable).
Liverpool: None.
Benfica vs Liverpool predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Side analysis
From the second you hear that famous music you know the Champions League is back and Tuesday sees the quarterfinals start in earnest. Benfica welcome Liverpool to Estadio da Luz for the first leg of their clash. The bookies are confident in Liverpool securing a place in the semifinals and it’s hard to argue with.
Liverpool are currently second in the Premier League — just one point behind Man City — and they’re battling the current champions every step of the way. With the exception of perhaps Bayern Munich, it’s hard to argue that those two clubs are the best on the planet right now. Liverpool have been nothing short of incredible, losing just twice in the Premier League and conceding just 20 goals while scoring 77.
Beating Liverpool is going to be a huge ask for Benfica, especially when a good Champions League run has covered up a poor year, domestically. Porto are 12 points clear of them in the Primeira Liga and in a battle with Sporting for the league title, leaving Benfica some way back in third. They did brilliantly to qualify for the latter stages of the competition, especially after being drawn into a Group with Bayern Munich and Barcelona, but it’s fair to ask whether their success was in part down to Barcelona’s poor form before Xavi took over as manager. A 3-2 aggregate victory over Ajax got them to this stage but, again, you have to ask whether Ajax is truly an elite European team anymore.
When Benfica met Bayern Munich in their group — a fair comparison with Liverpool due to both teams being amongst the best three in Europe — they lost 4-0 and 5-2, respectively. There’s a reason why the bookmakers have Benfica at big odds and Liverpool's the smart bet here, even though I wouldn’t personally bother at best odds of -255.
Jurgen Klopp’s team plays the game the right way and has been praised by neutrals. They’ll line up in their favored 4-3-3 and we should see a number of players return to the starting nine after the victory over Watford over the weekend. Trent Alexander-Arnold, Fabinho, Sadio Mane, and Luis Diaz all started that game on the bench and you’d think all four will slot back in on Tuesday. The Liverpool trio of Diaz, Mane, and Mohamed Salah is one of the most fearsome in the game and will cause serious problems for Benfica.
With Nicolas Otamendi and Jan Vertonghen — neither being good enough for a top Premier League team anymore — at the heart of Benfica’s defense, you have to think Diaz, Mane, and Salah will feast with their pace and guile causing significant problems for that aging duo.
Benfica's hopes will revolve around Adel Taarabt, the mercurial star now sitting deeper than his days in England and having a great final chapter to his career. If Taarabt, alongside Julian Weigl, can break up Liverpool’s play and get the ball forward to the front two then they have a chance.
Liverpool are heavy favorites for a reason and based on recent performances, you’d have to think they're a banker. You can never be too confident in this competition though, so perhaps it’s worth sitting this bet out and focusing on other markets to bet the game.
Prediction: Liverpool moneyline (-255 at DraftKings)
Over/Under analysis
Liverpool were fortunate enough to rest some of their best players last weekend and they’ll be hungry to put this game to bed in the first leg so they can potentially rest players in the second leg at Anfield. Liverpool have scored more goals than anybody else in the Premier League and at a domestic level, a massive 66.7% of games have had Over 2.5 goals.
Benfica took a thrashing on both occasions they faced top-tier opposition in Bayern Munich in the group stages and I wouldn’t be shocked to see the same happen again. At a domestic level, they’ve had Over 2.5 goals in 64.3% of their home games. Over 2.5 goals scored seems like the most obvious play.
Prediction: Over 2.5 goals (-162 at FanDuel)
Best bet
With a Liverpool victory feeling more like a formality than a real betting opportunity, we need to be a bit creative to find an angle to wager. The one that leaps out to me is backing a Benfica player to get a booking against this impressive Liverpool team.
Across both legs, Benfica got just three bookings but one player got a yellow card in both matches: Goncalo Ramos. The 20-year old Portuguese forward has come through the youth system at the club and operates behind Darwin Nunez. He’s grown into a starter and looks to have an exciting future. That said, he looks like a possible hothead.
In just 14 domestic starts, he's picked up three yellows, while his five Champions League games — only two of which were starts — saw him get booked twice. When he operates behind the frontman, it will leave him in a position where he'll try to stop Liverpool from forming attacks. But with excellent midfield options like Fabinho and Thiago Alcantara, there’s a chance he may end up doing something rash.
At +370, Ramos is a great price to find himself getting booked. If you’re waiting for lineups to be announced, then it’s also worth considering Julian Weigl if Ramos does not start. The German will be playing in the engine room for Benfica and should have a very tough day’s work. It might even be worth putting both in a same-game parlay at +1400, but let's keep it simple here and take Ramos at +370.
Pick: Goncalo Ramos to get booked (+370 at FanDuel)
