Borussia Dortmund vs PSV Eindhoven Predictions and Picks: Breaking Down the Yellow Wall

There’s a huge Champions League game between Borussia Dortmund vs. PSV Eindhoven in the Champions League this Wednesday, March 13th. The first leg of this Round of 16 tie finished 1-1 in the Netherlands and now the teams will do battle in Germany to for the right to secure a spot in the next round.

Will home advantage give Dortmund the edge or will PSV secure a famous win?

Join me as I dive deep into the Champions League odds and offer my best free soccer picks for Borussia Dortmund vs PSV Eindhoven.

Borussia Dortmund vs PSV Eindhoven best odds

Borussia Dortmund vs PSV Eindhoven picks and predictions

The Champions League Round of 16 has reached its decisive stage this week with second-leg games and on Wednesday we’re being treated to Borussia Dortmund vs PSV Eindhoven at Signal Iduna Park. It’s a tie that's on a razor’s edge after finishing 1-1 in the first leg in the Netherlands. That game saw Dortmund take a 24th-minute lead through Donyell Malen before PSV talisman Luuk de Jong converted a penalty in the 56th minute to level the scores, which is how it finished. PSV dominated the game, with 14 shots to Dortmund’s eight, giving up nearly half the number of fouls and bossing possession too.

That first game was an interesting one to watch and despite PSV now playing on the road and not in front of their home fans I took a huge amount of positives from how they played the first time out, which has informed my best bet for this game being backing Draw or PSV in the Double Chance market at -141.

For full disclosure, I don’t usually like betting on anything under -130 but after what we saw in the first leg there’s real value to be had on not backing the favorites here. Dortmund is priced at +110, a price that feels wrong to me. They’re fourth in the Bundesliga, six points off third place, and unlikely to catch them. As a team, they simply don’t look as coherent or as dangerous as they have in previous years. Given that they’ve lost Erling Haaland and Jude Bellingham in consecutive summers that shouldn’t be too shocking but the reality is that they aren’t that good currently. They’ve won just over half their league games domestically this season, with eight draws and four losses, the most recent of which was just three games ago.

Compare that with PSV who are playing at a hugely high level. They’re yet to lose a game in the Eredivisie this season, and while I’m more than happy to admit that as a league It isn’t as good as the Bundesliga, they are doing it in style. They’ve won 22 of 25 games, scored 80 goals, 17 higher than Feyenoord in second place, and given up just 13 goals, the lowest total in the league by a margin. They’ve lost just one game all season and that was to Arsenal in the Champions League, a group they still managed to finish second in.

Dortmund is without Nico Schlotterbeck who is a big loss in defense and that’s only going to benefit PSV and Luuk de Jong, who is having another good season. This team is far better than people think, something backed up by their performances this season and in the first leg, whereas we know this Dortmund team is not among the best Dortmund teams of recent seasons.

I’m not bullish enough on PSV to suggest that they win this, although there’s a real chance, and the draw also stands a huge chance of landing. However, if you put the draw and away win together you’re covering two of the three eventualities, which even at -141 feels like value given what we’ve seen from both clubs this season.

My best bet: PSV double chance — win/draw (-141 at TonyBet)

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Borussia Dortmund vs PSV Eindhoven same-game parlay

PSV double chance — win/draw

Luuk de Jong to score

Both teams 1+ card

+333 at bet365

You already know why we’re betting Draw/PSV on the Double Chance market but in addition to that we’re also including a leg for Luuk de Jong to score. The Dutchman has had another big season for PSV and already has 22 league goals for the club, not only that but he’s found the back of the net three times in six Champions League games so far. He’s now 33-years old but age hasn’t dampened his reading of the game and his movement still allows him to make good runs and read crosses, which combined with his finishing and aerial ability often results in goals.

To round off the Same-Game Parlay we’re going to back both Dortmund and PSV to get a booking in the game. It’s a simple wager but given the importance of this game, and with the scores level after the first leg, it’s all poised for a tense second game. PSV have averaged a booking in every league game, despite waltzing the league so far, and roughly two bookings a game in the Champions League, where they’ve met a different class of team. Meanwhile Dortmund have 45 bookings in 25 Bundesliga games and 11 in seven Champions League games. There will be cards here.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Borussia Dortmund vs PSV Eindhoven side and Over/Under analysis

We’ve covered the moneyline for Dortmund vs PSV above and the best way to bet it, so we’re going to avoid going into that again here and focus on the Total Goals market.

Over 2.5 goals comes in at -164, a certainty with the bookies, while Under 2.5 goals goals clocks in at +139. The first leg finished with two goals and it wouldn’t be a shock if this game did too. Just one of Dortmund’s seven Champions League games so far has hit the Over so far, while it’s landed three times in seven games for PSV. We’re likely to see a cagey game here and one that should remain tight, for that reason you’re better off taking the bigger odds of +139 when the data doesn’t really back up why Over 2.5 goals is as short as -164.

Borussia Dortmund vs PSV Eindhoven game info

Borussia Dortmund vs PSV Eindhoven key injuries

Borussia Dortmund: Nico Schlotterbeck CB (Out), Sebastien Haller STR (Quedstionable)
PSV Eindhoven: Noa Lang FWR (Out)

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