The fourth round of the FA Cup sees Bournemouth looking to continue a run in the tournament as the Premier League side hosts Championship club Swansea City on Thursday. Our soccer betting odds have the Cherries heavily favored to win.
The Cherries were throttled 4-0 by Liverpool in their last fixture, but have been playing well the past two months. Before that defeat, they reached this round of the competition by staging a comeback over Queens Park Rangers, storming back from a 2-0 halftime deficit. They'll hope to end a three-match home losing streak in the competition.
Swansea City sits nine points above the drop zone in the EFL Championship, but their 44.9 xGA is the third-best mark in the league. They’ve taken just one victory from their last seven away fixtures despite leading in four of them. They hit the road again to Vitality Stadium, hoping to beat the Cherries after 12 straight winless attempts.
Our Bournemouth vs. Swansea City free betting picks for Thursday’s FA Cup fixture explain why that’s unlikely to happen, despite what should be a competitive matchup.
Bournemouth vs Swansea best odds
 Bournemouth |
Swansea | |
|---|---|---|
| -334 | Moneyline | +880 |
| +500 | Draw | +500 |
| Over 2.5 (-112) | Total | Under 2.5 (-107) |
Odds courtesy of TonyBet on January 25, 2024.
Bournemouth vs Swansea picks and predictions
Bournemouth are in strong form at the moment despite their defeat at Liverpool. Defending the attack they faced is always difficult, but having multiple injuries in defense didn’t make things easier.
That loss is one of only two the Cherries have suffered over their last 10 matches, with the other coming away at Tottenham. In that span, they’ve enjoyed wins over Manchester United and Newcastle in addition to a draw against Aston Villa.
A key reason for that success has been the form of striker Dominic Solanke, who has eight goals in his last nine matches. Bournemouth have scored 19 goals in that span, despite having just one against Liverpool and Tottenham combined.
What Bournemouth hasn’t enjoyed many of are clean sheets. They’ve managed just six through their first 24 matches.
For Swansea, a clean sheet has been just as elusive. They’ve picked up just seven after 31 fixtures, and only two of those have come away from home — both of which occurred before the end of October. That’s despite changing managers at the start of this month.
Their 3-1 defeat to Southampton this past weekend ended a four-match unbeaten run in which they kept two clean sheets at home, but could only manage a pair of 2-2 draws away.
In fact, Swansea has conceded nine goals over their last three away matches, and eight of their 14 away excursions have seen them cough up multiple goals with six ending in defeat.
Each team comes into this fixture banged up. Bournemouth is missing multiple players, especially at fullback. That’s going to be an issue against a Swansea side that will want to run at them, and it’s hard to see Bournemouth keeping a clean sheet.
Swansea manager Luke Williams is not one to sit back, and he’s going to try to go for goals. That leads to his team conceding — and often. They’ve already conceded five over their last two matches, and his previous club Notts County in League Two was allowing nearly two goals per contest.
That said, I fully expect Bournemouth to win the match. They’re overwhelming favorites on the 3-way line, but they possess enough quality in attack to overwhelm their visitors despite conceding one or two themselves.
We’re going to combine a victory in regulation with both teams finding the scoresheet. TonyBet is offering this play in their combo markets, and at +165 odds, it’s a strong value given Bournemouth’s odds on the 3-way line.
My best bet: Bournemouth to win + both teams to score (+165 at TonyBet)
Bet on soccer at TonyBet
One of Canada’s favourite sportsbooks for soccer, join TonyBet, which offers a 100% deposit match (up to $350) for new bettors!
Not available in Ontario.
Bournemouth vs Swansea same-game parlay
Bournemouth to win
Both teams to score: Yes
Dominic Solanke to score
Harry Darling Over 0.5 shots
Solanke is one of the leading scorers in the Premier League this season, and he’s due for a goal. He’s not scored in his last two, having missed Bournemouth’s match with QPR, and he’s racking up 0.62 xG per 90 minutes.
There’s a possibility he doesn’t start, but Bournemouth won’t play again until late next week so I expect a stronger side here. I like him to find the back of the net against a Swansea defense that’s allowed the shortest shot distance per attempt in the Championship this season.
It’s rare to see a fullback leading a team in shots taken, but Harry Darling is doing just that for the Swans. He’s averaging 1.8 shots per 90 and has attempted at least one in 10 of his last 11 matches.
Given Bournemouth’s concerns at the fullback position, I like him to bomb down the wing on the counter and get at least one effort off during the match.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Bournemouth vs Swansea side and Over/Under analysis
The 3-way line makes it clear who the public and oddsmakers expect to win. You’ll have to lay juice of -330 or higher to back the home side. The draw is as high as +500, with a Swansea victory available for up to +1,000 at FanDuel.
There’s a slight value on the draw, especially if Solanke doesn’t start. I don’t expect a lot of starters to be kept out by Andoni Iraola, especially after seeing his side fall behind 2-0 in the third round with heavy rotation.
Bournemouth has reached the fifth round just three times in the past 35 tournaments, and they’re safely above the drop zone at the moment. I’m backing him to try to make a run and start his strongest side possible.
Those expecting to play the standard 2.5-goal total will be in for a surprise when they see the Over priced at -225 or higher. You’re going to need to use the 3.5-goal total today, which is juiced to the Under with -145 the best price on offer. The Over is offering odds of up to +110.
I’d stay away from both numbers and instead look at the Asian market. The Over 3.25 is priced at -115 and presents both a fair price and protection against a 2-1 scoreline. I do expect we’ll see at least four goals, but I don’t know if the price is fair enough for it.
There have been 3+ goals in each of Bournemouth’s last six matches, with the winning team scoring at least three in each. In Swansea’s last seven away fixtures, there have been 3+ goals scored six times, with five matches seeing four or more.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
Bournemouth vs Swansea game info
| Location: | Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth, England |
| Date: | Thursday, January 25, 2024 |
| Time: | 2:45 p.m. ET |
| Weather: | 54 F, 16-32 mph winds, 7% POP, 85% humidity |
Bournemouth vs Swansea key injuries
Bournemouth: Max Aarons D (Out), Tyler Adams M (Out), Ryan Fredericks D (Out).
Swansea: Sam Parker M (Out), Josh Key D (Out), Josh Ginnelly M (Out).
Stay updated with the latest picks, odds, and news! Tap the 
to add us to your favorites on Google News to never miss a story.
