Brighton vs Arsenal Picks and Predictions: Gunners Head Into 2023 Top of the Table

It feels good to have the Premier League back, and Saturday gives us a great clash of Brighton vs. Arsenal. The Seagulls are still in the top half of the table and have dreams of European qualification. The visitors, Arsenal, are top of the league and will head into 2023 there regardless but they’ll want to win here and lay down a marker.

This is a huge game and the final match on Saturday’s Premier League slate. Don’t miss our Brighton vs. Arsenal picks and predictions.

Brighton vs Arsenal best odds

Brighton vs Arsenal picks and predictions

Arsenal are five points clear of Man City but with Pep Guardiola’s team looking like the best team in Europe and Erling Haaland scoring for fun, it’s essential that Arsenal don’t drop points, because you can be confident that City won’t be.

Brighton will play a 4-2-3-1 as we saw in their 3-1 victory over Southampton earlier in the week. It’s a formation that we’ve seen Arsenal play a lot this season, but on Monday it looked like they played more of a 4-3-3 with Martin Odegaard slightly deeper and the two wide players getting closer to Eddie Nketiah, who is now in the middle of the attack with Gabriel Jesus sidelined for a long period. 

Brighton are capable, having won three of their last five, but you can’t escape the feeling that this is a club who are vastly overachieving. Arsenal are perhaps overachieving slightly but their performances are slightly more understandable and given their brilliant record, I’d expect them to come away from this short road trip with three points. 

At +110 you’re getting great odds on the Arsenal win and it’s the best bet for this game.

My best bet: Arsenal moneyline (+110 at bet365)

Brighton vs Arsenal side analysis

Brighton have welcomed back the bulk of their World Cup stars, and it’s Ecuador’s Moises Caicedo and Belgium’s Leandro Trossard who are key. Caicedo is one of the Premier League’s best defensive midfielders and it’ll be up to him to break down that Arsenal attack and get the ball forward. Trossard was one of Belgium’s best performers in a poor campaign but he’s now back on domestic duty and needs to get back to goalscoring ways. 

For Arsenal, it’s a familiar lineup. Four of the back five write themselves, with the keeper Aaron Ramsdale a lock, as are Ben White, William Saliba, and Gabriel in defense. 

In midfield, it’s the Thomas Partey and Granit Xhaka combination once again, although Odegaard dropped deeper against West Ham. That allowed Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Martinelli to push higher and get closer to Nketiah, who found the back of the net last time out.

Brighton vs Arsenal Over/Under analysis

The sportsbooks have this as a close call with Over 2.5 marginally shorter odds than Under 2.5. I’d lean towards backing the Under for two reasons. Firstly, I’m not sure Arsenal are quite as lethal without Jesus in the lineup, and secondly, the trends point us towards this being lower scoring.

Under 2.5 has only landed in 40% of Brighton’s games overall but at the Amex it’s as high as 57.1%, which shows just how much better the team are when they’re at their own stadium. The trends also back this up for Arsenal. 

The Gunners have seen Over 2.5 in every single game at the Emirates but when they’re on the road, the Under comes out on top, with fewer than three goals in 62.5% of games.

Brighton vs Arsenal game info

Brighton vs Arsenal key injuries

Brighton: Jakub Moder CM (Out), Danny Welbeck STR (Questionable), Alexis MacAllister CM (Questionable).
Arsenal: Emile Smith-Rowe CAM (Out), Gabriel Jesus STR (Out), Reiss Nelson FWR (Out), Takehiro Tomiyasu RB (Questionable).

Brighton vs Arsenal recent form

Teams	Last five matches
Brighton	L-W-W-L-W
Arsenal	D-W-W-W-W

Brighton vs Arsenal weather

It’ll be a wet day in Brighton, with temperatures in the low-50s.

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