The CONCACAF Nations League semifinals get underway on Thursday as Canada takes on Mexico at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California.
Both teams can taste the finals in this one-leg winner-take-all fixture, but my Canada vs. Mexico predictions favor the in-form Canadians to qualify.
Find out why in my free betting picks for Thursday, March 20.
Canada vs Mexico picks and predictions
My best bet: Canada to qualify (-117 at TonyBet)
My analysis
Before we get into breaking down this game, let me do a little housekeeping regarding my best bet.
This is not a bet on Canada moneyline. Those odds are +160 and would require them to win inside of 90 minutes only. While I do think that's a very real possibility, I am playing it safe and taking them "to qualify", which means if they win in extra time or penalties, we still win our bet.
Now, as we look at this game from a tactical perspective, Canada has advantages in key areas on the pitch. They are also in great form, having won four of their last five fixtures (one draw) in all competitions, keeping clean sheets in three of them. They have also lost just one of their last seven matches played on American soil, which was to Lionel Messi and Argentina in the Copa America semifinals.
These two nations hooked up in a friendly back in September, and while that ended in a nil-nil draw, Mexico showed very little by way of attacking prowess — which was the case in their extremely disappointing Copa America campaign.
El Tri had to overturn a 2-0 quarterfinal whole vs. Honduras to get to this point in the competition, which is why I have no faith in their leaky defense.
With Canada putting out a very familiar and cohesive starting XI, I give them the advantage against a Mexico side trying to find rhythm.
Canada vs Mexico same-game parlay (SGP)
Canada moneyline
Over 1.5 goals
Jonathan David to score
We do not have the ability to add the "to qualify" market to this SGP, so we will take Canada on the moneyline instead.
I like what Canada can do when they attack and move bodies forward. There is no better person to lead the line than Jonathan David, who is now Canada's all-time leading scorer with 31 goals.
He's in great form for Lille, having netted three goals and one assist over his last five games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Canada vs Mexico odds
- Moneyline: Canada +160 | Mexico +154
- Draw: +210
- Over/Under: Over 2.5 ( +108) | Under 2.5 (-164)
Canada vs Mexico side and Over/Under analysis
- Canada is unbeaten across their last five games in all competitions, with eight goals scored and just two conceded.
- Mexico has two wins and two losses across their last four games in all competitions and has seen just one team score on the night in each of those four contests.
- The total sits at 2.5, juiced to the Under at -164. I expect this line to shorten as each team's Starting XI is leaked.
How to watch Canada vs Mexico
| Location | SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA |
| Date | Thursday, 3-20-2025 |
| Time | 10:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | Paramount+ |
| Weather | Clear conditions. |
Canada vs Mexico key injuries
Canada: Richie Laryea (Out).
Mexico: No key injuries to report.
Not intended for use in MA.
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