Chelsea vs Everton Picks and Predictions: Blues Bash Everton at Stamford Bridge

The ever-congested Premier League schedule in December continues on Thursday in London, as a moribund Everton team travel to Stamford Bridge to face Chelsea. 

The Toffees suffered yet another defeat over the weekend in a flat performance against Crystal Palace, while Chelsea won in the dying moments against Leeds to rebound from only their second defeat of the season.

Here are our free soccer picks and predictions for Chelsea vs. Everton, with kickoff on December 16. 

Chelsea vs Everton match odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

Compare EPL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Chelsea vs Everton betting tips

• Prediction: Chelsea (-468)
• Prediction: Under 3 (-143)
• Best bet: Chelsea win and clean sheet (-140)

Predictions made on 12/15/2021 at 3:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Chelsea vs Everton game info

• Location: Stamford Bridge, London, England
• Date: Thursday, December 16, 2021
• Time: 2:45 p.m. ET
• TV: NBC Sports, DAZN

Chelsea vs Everton betting preview

Weather

Clouds but very little rain or wind are forecast for London on Thursday night as Everton and Chelsea clash. Temperatures at kickoff are expected to be around 50 degrees Fahrenheit.

Injuries

Chelsea: N'Golo Kante CM (Questionable), Trevoh Chalobah CB (Questionable), Ben Chilwell LB (Out), Mateo Kovacic CM (Out).
Everton: Lucas Digne LB (Questionable), Allan CM (Questionable), Richarlison ST (Out), Seamus Coleman RB (Out), Andros Towsend RW (Out), Dominic Calvert-Lewin ST (Out), Tom Davies CM (Out), Yerry Mina CB (Out).

Chelsea vs Everton predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Side analysis

We don't need to waste much time here. Chelsea are among the best teams in the world with a squad more than deep enough to navigate the December fixtures. They've lost only twice this season, both times to Top 4 teams, and have drawn three others. On their day, they can beat anyone in the world — even on an off day, they can handle a team in as poor of form as Everton.

Everton's reprieve from misery was brief, as a shocking 2-1 win over Arsenal 10 days ago was followed by a 3-1 loss to Palace. They have now taken just five points out of a possible 30 in their last 10 games as, on form, they continue to look like relegation fodder. Worse still, as the fixture list mounts, so too does their injury list (so much so that they recently parted ways with their head athletic trainer). 

Chelsea have averaged 2.4 goals and 1.9 expected goals per game this season, both of which are the third-most in the league, despite a slow start from Romelu Lukaku and the need to consistently juggle their lineup. Everton, meanwhile, are averaging 1.3 goals and xG per game, while also being haunted by injuries to irreplaceable pieces. 

In defense, Chelsea have conceded 0.7 goals and 1.04 xG per game — with over half of their goals allowed this year coming over the past three games. Everton, on the other hand, are allowing 1.75 goals and 1.4 xG per game, as manager Rafa Benitez struggles to settle on a backline that works.

No matter which way you look at it, Chelsea are vastly superior and will take all three points on Thursday. 

Prediction: Chelsea (-468)

Over/Under analysis

We immediately lean toward the Under here, as an already deflated Everton attack has given us even less of a reason to back them to score. So, it's on Chelsea to top three goals on their own. 

The Blues do not quite hit three goals per game so far in the Premier League season, with their per-game production of 2.4 goals actually exceeding their xG. That is helped by their league-leading five penalties awarded, all five of which have been converted.

For as good as they are going forward and creating goalscoring opportunities, they've had to rely heavily on the full squad with no player scoring more than Mason Mount's six goals this season. Until Romelu Lukaku rounds into form, it's going to need to continue to be a full team effort.

That full team effort is more than enough to punish most teams and win, with such a stellar defensive record, but it doesn't lead to massive goal outputs. Take the Under.

Prediction: Under 3 (-143)

Best bet

Everton are in a bad way ahead of their trip to London, due to both form and injuries. 

Dominic Calvert-Lewin's long-term injury has kept him out but he's now joined by Richarlison and Andros Towsend, who have been two of their three best attackers this season. All that is left for Everton to depend on is Demarai Gray, who has been superb on the wing, and Salomon Rondon, who has been incredibly poor up top.

Everton are already toward the bottom of the league in most goalscoring metrics but they're now in worse shape than ever. The players sidelined account for over 50 percent of their goals, a third of their assists, and nearly half of their expected goals. Aside from a moment of individual brilliance from Gray or a set piece, it's difficult to see where any goals will come from.

Chelsea are the best bet to win here but we can get better value by taking them to win with a clean sheet.

Pick: Chelsea win and clean sheet (-140)

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