Chelsea vs Luton Town Picks and Predictions: Second-Half Surge

This Friday, we have a big game under the lights with Chelsea hosting Luton. It’s a new-look Chelsea who have shown glimpses of progress already this season, but have equally shown their flaws. They face a newly-promoted Luton team who have looked out of their depth so far.

Can Chelsea put another three points on the board or will Luton get their first points of the season? Don’t miss our Chelsea vs. Luton tips and predictions.

Chelsea vs Luton Town best odds

Chelsea vs Luton Town picks and predictions

Chelsea have had an interesting couple of months. Under Todd Boehly’s ownership, they’ve had a huge turnover in players. They’ve sold a lot of their underperforming players, or those with expiring contracts, and managed to recoup a lot of money, that they’ve seemingly been intent on spending. It’s a bold transfer strategy and one that feels both random and, at times, quite risky.

If a number of these transfers don’t work out, the club could be in serious trouble. Despite an injury to new striker Christopher Nkunku, the season started well with a 1-1 draw to Liverpool. That raised expectations that Pochettino could have this Chelsea team firing very quickly but it was followed up with a 3-1 loss to West Ham last weekend. There’s clearly quality in this team but they’ve yet to get the recipe right.

Luton, meanwhile, have only played one game in the Premier League because their stadium renovations weren't finished in time to get them up to regulation. That means the only evidence we have to base our best bet on is their 4-1 defeat to Brighton. However, there’s some good reasoning for the best bet, which is for the second half to have the most goals, which we can get at +100.

First, Luton actually performed fairly well in that opening half at Brighton, with the team going into the halftime break down just one goal. However, they shipped three goals and scored one themselves in the second half. Two of those goals came in the final five minutes and it goes to show that perhaps the team doesn’t have the fitness or experience to compete for the full 90 minutes at this level.

They’ll go into Friday with a game plan, looking to be defensively strong and compact against Chelsea. That bodes well for our bet and I can’t see Chelsea scoring more than one goal in that first half. 

In the second half, the game will become more open as Luton tire and Chelsea can use their far superior squad depth to break the opposition down and score more. Quality should tell in this game the longer it goes, much like it did in Luton’s trip to Brighton. 

My best bet: Second half to have the most goals (+100 at FanDuel)

Chelsea vs Luton Town same-game parlay

Most goals in second half (+100)

Nicolas Jackson to score anytime (+105)

Luton Over 2 cards (-125)

+550 at bet365

In addition to using our best bet, we’ll be backing Chelsea’s new striker Nicolas Jackson to get on the scoresheet. The 22-year-old Senegalese forward has impressed in both of his games so far. He’s yet to score but he’s looked dangerous and caused opposition defenses problems with his pace.

He’s taken three shots per game so we can’t be far from his first Chelsea goal, especially given that he scored 12 La Liga goals last year in 26 appearances, 10 of which were from the bench. He’s also played 180 minutes so far this campaign, so we shouldn’t be at risk of an early substitution limiting his playing time. He can face a tired Luton backline in the backend of the second half.

Our final leg in this is for Luton to get Over 2 cards. We saw them get two against Brighton but we could see more here given the cauldron that Stamford Bridge will be under the lights. These players will want to impress against one of the Premier League’s big boys in Chelsea and I think we’ll see three players get their names in the referees' book.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Chelsea vs Luton Town spread and Over/Under analysis

I expected Luton to put up a fight in the Premier League this season and was shocked by how easily they got beaten by Brighton in their opening game. However, it’s worth noting that this Brighton side really is one of the best in the league and that it was an away game. Once Luton get back playing at home, they’ll be able to use that formidable atmosphere to their advantage. That won’t be the case in this game, though, where they’ll be the away team again. The best odds you’ll get on Chelsea to win are -420, and although I’m confident they’ll win, I simply can’t recommend backing them at those prices.

If you think Luton have a chance, then the draw is available at +600 or even a Luton win at +1,200. Although we saw West Ham turnover Chelsea last Sunday, I cannot see a way either of those results happen here, so I’d really recommend that you don’t place those bets, and focus on other markets.

The total goals market has Over 2.5 at -186 and Under 2.5 at +162. I think we’re likely to see Over 2.5 here but the vig is at least somewhat prohibitive. If we see a lot of goals, then you’d have to imagine Chelsea are scoring them and you’d be wiser to bet on anytime goalscorers for the home team. The +105 on Nicolas Jackson to score is far more appealing than -186 on Over 2.5 when you’d expect him to be on the scoresheet if Chelsea score a number of goals. 

Chelsea vs Luton Town game info

Chelsea vs Luton Town key injuries

Chelsea: Reece James RB (Out), Christopher Nkunku STR (Out), Benoit Badiashile CB (Out), Wesley Fofana CB (Out), Armando Broja STR (Out), Trevoh Chalobah CB (Out), Carney Chukwuemeka MID (Out).
Luton Town: Reece Burke DEF (Out), Dan Potts DEF (Out), Gabriel Osho MID (Out), Jordan Clark MID (Out).

Chelsea vs Luton Town recent league form

Teams	Recent Premier League Form
Chelsea	L-D
Luton Town	L

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