Chelsea vs Newcastle Predictions and Picks: Who Will Progress to EFL Cup Semis?

The EFL Cup returns this week with Chelsea and Newcastle meeting on Tuesday at Stamford Bridge.

Both managers — Mauricio Pochettino and Eddie Howe — would love to earn their first trophy for their respective clubs, but the first step is getting through to the semifinals.

Both teams come into this with plenty of injuries and suspensions but one team will progress. Don’t miss our free betting picks for Chelsea vs. Newcastle to find out who.

Chelsea vs Newcastle best odds

Chelsea		Newcastle
-129	Moneyline	+320
+290	Draw	+290
Over 2.5 (-141)	Total	Under 2.5 (+110)

Odds courtesy of TonyBet on December 17, 2023.

Chelsea vs Newcastle picks and predictions

The Carabao Cup has reached the quarterfinal stage and amongst the three games on Tuesday is Chelsea vs. Newcastle. Neither Mauricio Pochettino nor Eddie Howe have won anything with their clubs as of yet but Chelsea and Newcastle fans are expecting silverware soon and what better time than this season.

In truth, neither Chelsea nor Newcastle come into this game in the best of form... they both won their Premier League games this weekend to break two-game losing spells. To make things even harder to predict, there are a lot of injuries for both sides — a total of 21 potential players ruled out, 12 of those for the away side and nine for Chelsea.

That not only robs us of seeing both Chelsea and Newcastle at their best but it also makes it harder to pick a winner when you don’t know exactly who’ll play. This uncertainty around who will play is one of the main reasons for my best bet, which is for both teams to score at -139.

Cup games tend to go one of two ways, you either see a glut of goals or both teams tighten up and try to avoid conceding. I think in this case we’re likely to see goals. They’ve scored a combined 64 goals in the league this season and crucially have several injuries at the back.

Chelsea fans saw Christopher Nkunku for the first time at the weekend, even though he didn’t make it off the bench. This could be a chance for the Frenchman to make his debut for the club and he’d add a goal threat they haven't had this year.

They're also lacking defenders, with first-choice fullbacks Reece James and Ben Chilwell both likely to miss out as well as Wesley Fofana who would be starting at the back if fully fit.

Newcastle welcomes back Sven Botman to their backline at the weekend for the first time since September but they’re still without Nick Pope in goal and most likely without Fabian Char and Kieran Trippier. This makes them far weaker defensively and I can see Chelsea scoring against what it usually a good backline.

Newcastle are more than capable of finding the back of the net when they’re on their travels. In eight road games, they’ve only drawn a blank three times and have scored 14 goals in the other five games. Likewise, Chelsea have scored 15 goals in their nine home games in the league.

These are two teams with defensive injuries and talented attacking players. With a spot in the semis of the Carabao Cup at stake, I think we’re likely to see both teams on the scoresheet here.

My best bet: Both teams to score — Yes (-139 at TonyBet)

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Chelsea vs Newcastle same-game parlay

Both teams to score — Yes

Anthony Gordon to be booked

Chelsea to quality

+600 at bet365

First up, we’re backing both teams to score. We’ve detailed the exact reasons why above but this is a knockout game that both teams will be desperate to win. What bodes well for us is that both sides have plenty of injuries at the back but are generally pretty healthy in attacking positions

Next, we’re going to back Anthony Gordon to get booked. For my money, he’s been Newcastle’s best player this season but his major issue has been with his temperament, where he’s already picked up six yellow cards in just 16 league games. That’s an issue and he can lose his discipline very quickly.

Finally, we’re going to back Chelsea to qualify. I’m not sure if they’ll manage to win inside 90 minutes but I think they have enough about them combined with the home advantage to secure a passage to the semifinals.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Chelsea vs Newcastle side and Over/Under analysis

Chelsea are favorites for this game at -137 with Newcastle at +340 and the draw at +285. I don’t understand why Chelsea are such big favorites here and I’d argue Newcastle offer the better value even though I suspect Chelsea will win. 

You can back goals here by backing both teams to score at -139 as we have above or back it not to happen at +100. Alternatively, you can back Over 2.5 goals at -133 or Under 2.5 goals at +100.

I’d rather back the BTTS than the Over because you'll likely need both teams to score anyway if you have the Over.

Chelsea vs Newcastle game info

Chelsea vs Newcastle key injuries

Chelsea: Robert Sanchez GK (Out), Marc Cucurella LB (Out), Wesley Fofana CB (Out), Trevolah Chalobah CB (Out), Reece James RB (Out), Noni Madueke FWR (Out), Ben Chilwell LB (Questionable), Romeo Lavia CM (Questionable).
Newcastle: Nick Pope CB (Out), Matt Targett LB (Out), Joe Willock CM (Out), Elliot Anderson CM (Out), Jacob Murphy FWR (Out), Harvey Barnes FWR (Out), Javier Manquillo LB (Out), Sandro Tonali CM (Out), Lewis Hall LB (Out), Fabian Schar CB (Questionable), Joelinton CM (Questionable), Alexander Isak (Questionable), Kieran Trippier (Questionable).

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