Chelsea vs Real Madrid Picks and Predictions: Both Teams Primed to Find Back of Net

Today sees the second-leg matchup between Chelsea and Real Madrid to reach the Champions League semifinal. The Spanish club won the first leg 2-0 and outplayed Frank Lampard’s Chelsea team. The Londoners are only two goals down on aggregate and in front of their home fans there’s a chance they could get back into this quarterfinal. 

Will we see a historic comeback or will Real Madrid progress with ease? Don’t miss our Chelsea vs. Real Madrid picks and predictions.

Chelsea vs Real Madrid best odds

Chelsea vs Real Madrid picks and predictions

Chelsea slumped to a 2-0 deficit in the first leg at Santiago Bernabeu but in truth, it could have been worse. Frank Lampard’s team saw Ben Chilwell sent off 59 minutes in and they played a third of the game with just 10 men. Chelsea only had seven shots all game with just three on target — as they were largely outclassed by Real Madrid — who had 18 shots with 10 on target.

While Real Madrid have looked out of sorts in La Liga this year, they looked like their old selves in the first leg of this tie with Karim Benzema and Vinicius Junior tearing Chelsea apart. To get away with just a two-goal defeat was fortunate for Chelsea.

When picking the best bet for this game I toyed with the idea of suggesting betting on Real Madrid, who at +150 could offer good value, but given Chelsea’s need to go out and attack, it felt risky. Vinicius Junior is doubtful for this game, and the Brazilian was the best player on the pitch in the first leg with his pace and directness caused huge problems for Chelsea.

The one thing we can be sure of is that Chelsea needs to attack. With that in mind, we’ll be betting on Over 2.5 goals in the game and for both teams to score, which you can grab at +110. 

This pick is largely based on the potential game script. We know Chelsea will have to throw players forward and try to score and we know that Real Madrid have exceptional attackers who could punish the Londoners on the counterattack.

I’m expecting Chelsea to score at least one here and for the Spanish side to get at least one goal too, as they use their pace on the counter to punish Chelsea.

My best bet: Over 2.5 goals and both teams to score (+110 at bet365)

Chelsea vs Real Madrid side analysis

As mentioned above, this is a very hard game to pick the winner. I’m fairly confident in Real Madrid but they can qualify for the next round with a draw or a 1-0 loss, so I struggle to back them to win. Chelsea are the team with the pressure on them and although I think they’ll score, I don’t think they’re cohesive enough to score enough goals to reach the semifinal of the Champions League.

It's really hard to work out exactly which team Frank Lampard will pick given he’s changed things around in his games so far, however, we’ll know how he’ll send out his Chelsea team, and that’s 4-3-3. We can be confident that he’ll pick the experience of Thiago Silva at the back, most likely with Wesley Fofana alongside him.

Reece James will play on the right and Marc Cucurella will play on the left with Ben Chilwell suspended. In midfield, we’ll see Enzo Fernandez and N’Golo Kante, and one other. Up front, we’ll have Joao Felix down the middle with Kai Havertz doubtful.

Raheem Sterling will likely play on one side of Felix and I’m expecting Mason Mount to get his first start under Lampard, with the England star a favorite of the manager during his first spell at the club.

Real Madrid’s 4-3-3 will match up with Chelsea. Eduardo Camavinga will again be a makeshift left back and that’s an area Chelsea will look to attack. He’ll probably be alongside David Alaba, Eder Militao, and Dani Carvajal at the back, the same four we saw in the first leg.

With the brilliant Vinicius Junior unlikely to start we should see Federico Valverde moved forward alongside Benzema and Rodrygo, which will leave space for Aurelien Tchouameni to partner Toni Kroos and Luka Modric in the middle.

Chelsea vs Real Madrid Over/Under analysis

Given that it makes up part of my best bet for Chelsea vs Real Madrid, it won’t be a surprise that Over 2.5 goals is the way that I’d go in terms of betting on total goals.

Chelsea’s games this season have largely been low scoring, but the majority of those were under Thomas Tuchel or Graham Potter. We don’t yet have a big sample size for Frank Lampard, especially in a game when we know they have to attack.

Real Madrid have had Over 2.5 goals in 58.6% of their domestic games this year, with 53.3% of the road games hitting the Over too. You can’t forget that last time Real Madrid were in the United Kingdom back in February, they beat Liverpool 5-2. Take the Over here.

Chelsea vs Real Madrid game info

Chelsea vs Real Madrid key injuries

Chelsea: Armando Broja ST (Out), Kalidou Koulibaly CB (Out), Carney Chukwuemeka CM (Out), Ben Chilwell LB (Out), Kai Havertz FWR (Questionable), Ruben Loftus-Cheek CM (Questionable).
Real Madrid: Ferland Mendy LB (Out), Vinicius Junior FWR (Questionable).

Chelsea vs Real Madrid weather

A cloudy day in London will see temperatures around 50 degrees when this game kicks off at 8 p.m. local time.

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