Chelsea did what they needed to do to gain the upper hand in a Champions League semifinal tie with Real Madrid, but can the Blues contain the Spanish powerhouses yet again this week?
The answer to that question will ultimately determine which team advances to the championship as Chelsea hosts Real Madrid on Wednesday. The English Premier League stalwarts battled Madrid to a 1-1 draw at Santiago Bernabeu Stadium and can advance outright with a scoreless draw or a victory.
They come in as narrow favorites against a Madrid team that faces an uphill battle in its quest to win the Champions League crown for the fifth time in the past eight years.
These are our favorite Champions League bets for Chelsea vs. Real Madrid on May 5.
Chelsea vs Real Madrid odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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Premier League sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonBack on April 27, DraftKings pegged Chelsea a +105 favorite, Real Madrid a +270 underdog and Draw +245. Chelsea quickly slid to +128, then Monday got back near the opener at +106. As of 12:30 p.m. ET on game day, the three-way moneyline is Chelsea +125/Real Madrid +230/Draw +230, wuth Real Madrid leading the way at 48 percent of bets/62 percent of money. Chelsea is getting 44 percent of bets/34 percent of tickets, and Draw is landing 8 percent of bets/4 percent of money. The total opened at 2.5 (Under -275), and that Under price got as low as -127 this morning before edging up to -134. The Under is taking 51 percent of bets/71 percent of cash.
Check out the full line movement for this gameChelsea vs Real Madrid betting preview
Injuries
Chelsea: Mateo Kovacic M (Out).
Real Madrid: Lucas Vazquez S (Out), Dani Carvajal D (Out), Raphael Varane D (Out), Sergio Ramos D (Doubtful), Ferland Mendy D (Doubtful), Marcelo Vieira D (Doubtful), Federico Valverde M (Doubtful).
Betting trend to know
Chelsea have gone Under 2.5 goals allowed in 17 of their last 19 games.
Moneyline pick
We liked the draw in this space a week ago, and it came to fruition thanks to strong defensive play from both clubs. Chelsea own a slight edge by virtue of the away goal they scored, and have been unrelenting at home since the start of the calendar year. They've allowed just seven goals in their past 14 home matches – five of those coming in a loss to West Bromwich Albion on April 3.
That might be too much for Real Madrid to overcome, given their recent offensive woes. The most prolific team in Champions League history has been blanked in three of its previous six matches, with multi-goal efforts against middling La Liga clubs Cadiz and Osasuna making up the majority of the offensive output over that span.
Chelsea are on a strong run at the moment, kicked off with a statement win over a Manchester City team they might very well meet in the Champions League final. We don't see them faltering on home turf in their biggest game of the year.
PICK: Chelsea (+115)
Over/Under pick
We don't need to go into great detail to explain our pick here. Chelsea have been one of the most consistent Under options in all of European domestic soccer over the past two-plus months, having finished below the 2.5-goal threshold in 17 of their previous 19 games across all competitions, and in each of their last six Champions League matches dating back to Dec. 8.
Few teams on the planet can control the play on their home turf like Chelsea, and while Real Madrid are full value for their spot in the semifinals, they don't have the offensive firepower to make this one a shootout. We like the Under again Wednesday.
PICK: Under 2.5 (-150)
First half prop pick
We didn't hit on just how incredible Chelsea have been at home since Thomas Tuchel took the reins as manager. All five of the goals they've allowed in 11 home games over that stretch came in that inexplicable effort vs. West Brom, meaning that Chelsea have racked up clean sheets in each of the other 10 games in London under his watch.
Chelsea will be content to use the counterattack to generate pressure against Real Madrid, while the visitors might be satisfied with being a little more tactical in the early going before increasing the pressure if they're tied or trailing going into the break. In other words, there are plenty of reasons to believe that his game will go into the half with no goals on the board.
PICK: Under 0.5 first half goals (+162)
Chelsea vs Real Madrid betting card
- Chelsea (+115)
- Under 2.5 (-150)
- Under 0.5 first half goals (+162)
Picks made on 5/03/2021 at 5:00 p.m. ET
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