Argentina didn’t concede a goal as they rolled through Copa America’s Group A, allowing just six shots on target. Now they’ll face their toughest test of the competition with an in-form Lautaro Martinez taking pressure off an attack that may not have Lionel Messi in the starting XI.
Find out why Martinez will be the man to watch in my Argentina vs. Ecuador prediction for Thursday, July 4, and be sure to stay up to date with the Copa America 2024 odds.
Argentina vs Ecuador picks, predictions, and betting tips
My best bet:
Lautaro Martinez 2+ shots on target (+150 at Betano)
My analysis
Of the eight teams to advance from the group stage, only Canada had a higher xGA than the 3.4 mark teams posted against Ecuador. And that’s concerning, given Canada were in a group with Argentina.
Ecuador faced the third-most shots in the group stage, allowing 41 attempts over three matches (20 from Mexico alone). They were fortunate only 12 reached the goalkeeper, especially when only 13 of them were blocked.
Mexican striker Santiago Gimenez had five shots in their meeting, and If Ecuador allows Lautaro Martinez to get the ball in similar positions, it’s going to be a very long night for the underdogs.
Just one of Gimenez's efforts was on goal, but he put another just over the bar and hit the post with a third. He had three shot attempts within eight yards, and all five came inside the penalty area.
Martinez is the Golden Boot leader right now in Copa America with four goals, and is an extremely accurate shooter. He’s put multiple shots on goal in all three matches and has tested the keeper with seven of his nine shots in the competition. He leads an attack that has put a tournament-high 23 shots on target thus far.
What makes this most impressive is he didn’t start the first two matches. In fact, he played less than 20 minutes against Canada and Chile and still managed multiple efforts on goal while bulging the back of the net in each.
Martinez has scored in four straight matches for La Seleccion and should get the start here. Bank on him to get multiple shots on target against a very leaky Ecuadorian back line at a price far too high given his talents.
Lionel Messi odds, prop for today
My best bet
Over 0.5 assists (+182 at Betano)
My analysis
I must preface this by saying Lionel Messi is not a lock to start, which means his prop bets could be voided. He’s 37 years old, and muscular injuries aren’t the easiest to recover from at that age — especially a thigh or groin issue such as his.
Before he got hurt, Messi was quite influential in Argentina’s attack, as can be expected. While he didn’t manage a goal in the group stage for the first time in his career, he did notch an assist in the 2-0 win over Canada.
Messi's 1.18 expected assists per 90 minutes lead the tournament, and he was unfortunate not to notch another one against Chile. He wasn’t himself in the second half after picking up the knock, but he still created four shots from set pieces and created five chances in total.
It’s quite impressive he had 0.9 xG for the match despite having just one touch inside the Chilean penalty area. He’s been dropping deeper to get on the ball and impact play, and should he start, I expect that to continue.
With his creativity and vision, and the lethal finishers playing around him, he’s priced quite well to get an assist here at +182.
Argentina vs Ecuador same-game parlay (SGP)
Lautaro Martinez 2+ shots on target
Lautaro Martinez anytime goalscorer
Argentina Over 5.5 corners
Argentina’s 24 corner kicks led all teams in the group stage. Only Jamaica and Chile conceded more corners than Ecuador, who saw their opponents attempt 18 set pieces from the corner flag. With Ecuador likely sitting back and looking to hit on the counter, it’s hard to see Argentina not earning at least six corners here.
Martinez is going to get quality looks, and if I’m backing him to test the keeper at least twice, I’d be foolish not to back him to score. Four goals from seven shots on target is an outstanding return, and he takes his game to another level with the national team. He’ll punish Ecuador for allowing him to get free in the penalty area the way Gimenez should have.
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Argentina vs Ecuador odds
| Argentina | Ecuador | |
|---|---|---|
| -200 | Moneyline | +825 |
| Over 2.5 (+140) | Total | Under 2.5 (-175) |
| +305 | Draw | +305 |
Odds courtesy of Betano on 7-3
Argentina vs Ecuador game info
| Location: | NRG Stadium, Houston, TX |
| Date: | Friday, July 5, 2024 |
| Time: | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
Not intended for use in MA.
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