With maximum points and a quarterfinal date on deck, Argentina can ring the changes on Saturday as they take on Peru in Miami.
Though it hasn’t exactly been smooth sailing for the Albiceleste in Group A, Lionel Messi & Co. edged past Canada and Chile – and they enter this final group fixture as big favorites in the latest Copa America odds, even with Messi expected to sit out.
Only a win and a big swing in goal difference can save Peru from elimination, and that’s a massive long shot for a team that’s been blanked in both games so far. These nations have been solid defensively, but my Argentina vs Peru predictions call for goals in this June 29 clash.
Argentina vs Peru picks, predictions, and betting tips
My best bet:
Over 2.5 goals (+118 at Betano)
My analysis
Lionel Scaloni has hinted at resting key starters and turning to his backups this weekend. That squad rotation is set to include Messi, who was hampered by a thigh issue in the previous contest against Chile.
But Argentina still have the potential to overwhelm a limited Peru team – and I’m taking these tasty odds for Saturday’s showdown to serve up at least three goals.
Even the most optimistic Peruvian supporter would surely acknowledge that their team is just playing for national pride at this point. While a lack of firepower in the final third continues to haunt Peru, they outshot Canada 9-5 on Tuesday and may have no choice but to adopt a more adventurous approach here.
But this pick is really a bet on the Argentina forwards to have a big night. Though the goals haven’t flowed as freely as expected for the World Cup champions in the Copa America group stage, this is a terrific opportunity to flip that script.
Of course, the Argentine second-string XI still features plenty of marquee names. We could see Lautaro Martinez, Alejandro Garnacho, Exequiel Palacios, and Valentin Carboni all log minutes here – and they will all be hungry to stay in Scaloni’s plans for the knockout rounds. Messi is so often the chief creator for the Albiceleste, but other playmakers are capable of stepping up.
We saw with Portugal in a meaningless final group game at Euro 2024 that a revamped line-up and a fearless opponent can spell trouble. But I don’t see Peru pulling off the kind of upset that Georgia produced.
If Jorge Fossati’s Peru team contributes to the scoring here, that just feels like a bonus for this prop. Beyond that, I’m counting on the Argentina attack to do the heavy lifting and secure a comfortable win.
Lionel Messi odds, prop for today
My best bet
Anytime goal (+120 at Betano)
My analysis
All the signs point to Messi getting a break here ahead of the quarterfinals, and Argentina would be wise not to take any chances with the minor injury he picked up against Chile.
That said, if he gets even a short cameo as a sub, Messi will be eager to open his goal account for the tournament, and this anytime scorer prop would offer some decent value.
Argentina vs Peru same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 2.5 goals
Lautaro Martinez anytime goal
Alejandro Garnacho anytime assist
Julian Alvarez has had the first crack at partnering Messi in attack at this tournament, but Lautaro Martinez’s performances off the bench are creating some selection conundrums for Scaloni ahead of the quarterfinals.
Martinez has scored off the bench in both outings so far, including the late winner to sink Chile. If he gets the start on Saturday and sees extended minutes, I like the odds for the Inter Milan man to make it a three-game goal streak.
I see Garnacho seizing his chance this weekend too. It will require some slick passing and clever movement to unlock the Peru backline, and the Manchester United winger is never shy about taking on defenders.
Coming off a season with six assists for the Red Devils, Garnacho is a prime candidate to lay on a goal for a team-mate here.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Argentina vs Peru odds
| Argentina | Peru | |
|---|---|---|
| -192 | Moneyline | +670 |
| Over 2.5 (+118) | Total | Under 2.5 (-143) |
| +295 | Draw | +295 |
Odds courtesy of Betano on 6-27
Argentina vs Peru game info
| Location: | Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, FL |
| Date: | Saturday, June 29, 2024 |
| Time: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| Weather: | Humid but rainy conditions |
Not intended for use in MA.
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