Uruguay are poised to make a deep run at Copa America 2024, and they can stay on course for the quarterfinals with a win over Bolivia on Thursday.
The Uruguayans pulled away late for a 3-1 victory over Panama in their Group C opener, and Marcelo Bielsa’s men are big favorites again here in the latest Copa America odds, with the Bolivians coming off an underwhelming 2-0 loss to Team USA at the weekend.
The formbook and FIFA rankings point to a Uruguay win, but I’m keeping an open mind in my Uruguay vs. Bolivia predictions below.
Uruguay vs Bolivia picks, predictions, and betting tips
My best bet:
2 or 3 total goals (+115 at Betano)
My analysis
Uruguay’s pursuit of a record 16th Copa America crown is up and running — and if anyone is going to stand in the way of an Argentina-Brazil final, the Uruguayans still look the likeliest nation to crash the party.
These teams’ opening fixtures told us plenty about where they’re heading. Uruguay piled on the pressure against Panama, but it took 85 minutes to establish a 2-0 lead, while Bolivia had 39% of the possession against Team USA and were outshot 20-6.
I see a similar approach from the Bolivians here, with a 3-1-4-2 formation that quickly becomes a back five, and a willingness to sit back until counter-attacking opportunities present themselves. That wasn’t enough to grind out a result against the USA, and I don’t see the underdogs withstanding the Uruguay attack either.
However, I’m not rushing to predict a hugely lopsided scoreline, especially after the Uruguayans only hit the target with seven of their 20 attempts last time out. With that in mind, these plus-money odds for either two or three total goals jump out to me.
Bolivia are unlikely to offer a sustained attacking threat, even if they make some changes after being shut out on Sunday, so this is set up for Uruguay to see plenty of the ball and – with some patient probing – create enough scoring chances to put the total in this range.
The Uruguayans certainly have the quality to capitalize in the final third. Darwin Nunez is on a hot streak for La Celeste and he’ll be backed by the craft of Federico Valverde, Maximiliano Araujo, and Facundo Pellistri as they try to unpick a stubborn Bolivia defense. Bielsa can also call on veteran Luis Suarez off the bench.
It hasn’t been a high-scoring tournament so far and Uruguay left it late to put the game beyond doubt against Panama, but I don’t see this descending into a total stalemate. Instead, I’m casting the net wider with this prop which centers around final scorelines of 2-0, 2-1, or 3-0.
Uruguay vs Bolivia same-game parlay (SGP)
2 or 3 total goals
Darwin Nunez anytime goalscorer
Uruguay first-half moneyline
The Uruguay attack largely rests on Darwin Nunez’s shoulders these days, and he’s been delivering, with five goals so far in the CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying group.
Nunez also netted a hat-trick in a warm-up outing against Mexico and was on the scoresheet again against Panama. I see that deadly form continuing on Thursday and his anytime goalscorer prop is an easy pick for my SGP. Though he’s still searching for his best form at Liverpool, Nunez is a different proposition in a Uruguay jersey.
The Uruguay first-half moneyline feels like solid value, too. Despite seeing Brazil and Argentina struggle to make inroads in the first half of this tournament, I’m counting on La Celeste’s front three and a lively midfield to get off to a strong start.
Bolivia trailed 2-0 at half-time in their opening game in Group C and a sluggish start allowed Team USA to score inside five minutes. A hungry Uruguay team is well-placed to make a similar early impact against an opponent that’s ranked 84th in the world and is coming off a rough first outing.
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Uruguay vs Bolivia odds
| Uruguay | Bolivia | |
|---|---|---|
| -667 | Moneyline | +2,600 |
| Over 3.5 (+110) | Total | Under 2.5 (-133) |
| +725 | Draw | +725 |
Odds courtesy of Betano on 6-26.
Uruguay vs Bolivia game info
| Location: | MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ |
| Date: | Thursday, June 27, 2024 |
| Time: | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| Weather: | Clear, dry conditions, with temperatures in the high 70s. |
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