Uruguay vs Canada Prop Picks & Best Bets: Low-Scoring Affair Expected in Third-Place Game

Prop bet #1: Seeing zeros

Canada are expected to rotate their side heavily, based on comments made this week by manager Jesse Marsch. That means that likely either Cyle Larin or Jonathan Davis — and perhaps both — will not be on the pitch.

That will make it even tougher for a Canadian side that simply lacks scoring bite. Despite having nearly twice as many penalty area touches as Argentina, they failed to score in the semifinal for the third time in their five matches at Copa America. 

Meanwhile, Uruguay have scored just one goal in their last three matches after scoring eight in the first two group-stage fixtures. Darwin Nunez is misfiring at the worst time, and his 33% accuracy on non-blocked shots is the fourth-worst mark among all goalscorers in the competition. 

Uruguay have conceded just two goals in this competition. Colombia’s first-half tally was enough to win the semifinal, while Panama got a consolation goal in the 94th minute in the opening match of the tournament for both sides.

Both of these managers employ a high-tempo defensive style that lends itself to disrupting the flow of the match. In fact, Marsch took over at Leeds United when Bielsa was fired two seasons ago, as their styles were that similar. 

In the 10 matches these sides have played at Copa America, only two have seen both teams find the back of the net. Venezuela and Canada drew 1-1 in the quarterfinals, with the Canadians advancing on spot kicks. 

This match feels like a 1-0 or 2-0 final, but I could even see it being scoreless after 90 minutes. One team may find the back of the net, but at least one won’t.

Prop: Both teams to score - No (+105 at Betano)

Prop bet #2: How low can you go? 

Not only will the rotation cause Canada’s front line to change, but I expect it will lead to them taking time to get accustomed to one another. That won’t be easy against a Uruguay defense that has been among the best in the tournament. 

Despite playing Brazil and Colombia in the knockouts, Uruguay has allowed less than eight shots per 90 minutes of play. They’re also conceding just 2.44 shots on goal per 90, both marks being among the best three of any team.

On the flip side, Canada are averaging just 9.19 shots per 90 minutes, and 16 of those shots against Venezuela. While they did manage 10 shots against Argentina, three of those came in the final four minutes of the match. 

Only Colombia and Panama have reached double-digit shots, and Uruguay limited Brazil to just seven. Half of Colombia’s shots came late when Uruguay was throwing everyone forward looking for an equalizer.

This Uruguay team presses more than any Canada has faced and will make things very difficult for them in attack. Without Alphonso Davies there to help launch the counter, Canada’s going to see more of their counter-attacks stifled than usual.

This will help keep their shot total lower, as will the energy-sapping heat and humidity in Charlotte as players lose their legs. 

Prop: Canada Under 9.5 shots (-133 at Betano)

Prop bet #3: Tackle it together

This matchup features two teams who love to pressure and play aggressively, and that should lead to plenty of tackles. Add in the fact that many of the starters for both sides could be rested, and you have a recipe for even more opportunities to win the ball.

Uruguay has attempted 95 tackles in the competition, second-most behind only Canada. The Canucks have registered 103 tackles so far, winning 65 of them for the third-best tackle percentage of any nation in the competition.

However, Canada haven’t been very good at keeping the ball once they win it. Their opponents have registered 92 tackles, with only Colombia conceding more overall. They've also given up possession on 63% of those tackles, the fourth-worst mark in Copa 2024.

These two teams play a similar style — so much so that when Uruguay manager Marcelo Bielsa was fired by Leeds two seasons ago, it was Marsch who they appointed to replace him. They’re going to smother each other in the midfield, and the rotation will help Canada in that aspect.

Their 15 tackles against Argentina were by far their fewest, and Marsch said they simply ran out of legs. Prior to that, they had at least 21 in every match and 26 or more in three of those contests. That includes 31 against Venezuela in the quarter-finals.

Uruguay have attempted at least 19 tackles in every match, and had 35 against Bolivia and 29 against Colombia. If they reach those numbers here, then the Over hits easily. 

Prop: Over 42.5 tackles (-115 at Betano)