It wasn't pretty at times, but Canada find themselves in their first-ever Copa America quarterfinals, and my Canada vs. Venezuela predictions fancy their chances at reaching the semis.
Standing in their way is a Venezuela side who was the beneficiary of some lucky breaks along the way in the group stage.
Given the current Copa America odds, Canada seems to be the sharp side as they've gone from underdogs to favorites ahead of kickoff.
Find out which betting markets to attack for this July 5 fixture.
Venezuela vs Canada picks, predictions, and betting tips
My best bet:
Canada to qualify (+100 at Betano)
My analysis
I don't want to take away anything from Venezuela ahead of this quarterfinal fixture vs. Canada, as finishing with a perfect record in group-stage play is a feat they should be proud of.
However, let's break down how they got there. Venezuela were the beneficiary of an early red card in the opener vs. Ecuador and still needed two late goals to secure all three points. In the second game, they were vastly outplayed by Mexico but managed to slot home a penalty in the 59th minute to win 1-0. And in the finale, against an already eliminated Jamaica side, they played loose and put three past a bad team.
The betting market seems to agree as Venezuela opened as +162 favorites with Canada at +210, but money has been trickling in on the Red and White. Canada is now the betting favorite at +180 on the moneyline, as well as 'to qualify' at -111.
As for Canada, yes, they have just one goal in three matches, but the body of work they've shown through three games is something worth fighting for. This is a team that traded chances with Argentina in the opener, and if they were a bit more clinical, they could have pulled away with a result. They also created plenty vs. Peru and Chile in two extremely hard-fought 90-minute battles.
If we look at the emotional factor, Canada should rally around Tajon Buchanan who broke his tibia in training prior to this match. That "do it for Tajon" mentality could be the extra spark Canada needs to get through this game and onto the semifinals.
Jonathan David odds, prop for today
My best bet
Over 0.5 shots on target (-143 at Betano)
My analysis
I'm going back to the well here with Jonathan David Over 0.5 shots on target, and we're getting a bit of a discount this time around.
If Canada wants to succeed, they're going to need their star players to be their star players. We see it time and time again with the likes of Lionel Messi, Vinicius Junior, and Darwin Nunez all stepping up for their countries when the chips are down.
David is an elite striker, one that finished behind Kylian Mbappe in Ligue 1 scoring last year. This is a player who already has a goal this tournament, and with a game I believe will be more open and free-flowing than most would think, asking your star striker to register a shot on target should not bet a big ask.
I'll take him here vs. a Venezuela side that has given up 12 shots on target in three matches.
Venezuela vs Canada same-game parlay (SGP)
Canada to qualify
Jonathan David Over 0.5 shots on target
Venezuela Under 1.5 goals
I am going to keep this SGP short and to the point by combining my best best and David prop while adding Venezuela Under 1.5 goals.
This is a Venezuela side that outside of two games this tournament, had scored two or more goals in just one of their last 12 matches in all competitions.
The bounces have been going their way, but I believe that ends here.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Venezuela vs Canada odds
| Venezuela | Canada | |
|---|---|---|
| +187 | Moneyline | +180 |
| Over 2.5 (+140) | Total | Under 2.5 (-175) |
| +190 | Draw | +190 |
Odds courtesy of Betano on 7-5.
Venezuela vs Canada game info
| Location: | AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX |
| Date: | Friday, July 5, 2024 |
| Time: | 9:00 p.m. ET |
Not intended for use in MA.
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