There’s no room for error on June 24 when Croatia faces Italy, as they face a “win or go home” scenario following a heartbreaking tie against Albania.
Putting balls by the Italian Gianluigi Donnarumma won't be an easy task however, which is why his save total is the topic of my Croatia vs. Italy predictions. Find out more in my Euro 2024 picks ahead.
Croatia vs Italy picks, predictions, and betting tips
My best bet:
Gianluigi Donnarumma Over 2.5 saves (-125 at Betano)
My analysis
Spain rolled to a 3-0 win over Croatia in their Matchday 1 fixture, but Croatia actually posted a higher xG (2.38) than Spain (2.01). The reason they didn’t score was the phenomenal play of Spanish keeper Unai Simon, who made five saves on the day.
In their second match against Albania, the Vatreni again underperformed their xG, posting just two goals despite a 2.68 xG from 22 total shots. That’s because of eight saves made by Thomas Strakosha, who kept Albania in the match long enough for them to steal a point and put Croatia on the verge of elimination.
Enter Gianluigi Donnarumma: The only reason Spain scored a solitary goal in Italy’s second match was because Gigi stood on his head. While he didn’t officially earn the award, he put in a Man of the Match performance with eight saves.
Croatia have already posted 38 shots with 15 on target, both totals eclipse what they attempted in the last European Championship group stage. But they’re not finishing their chances and are starting to shoot from all angles, even if they’re not high-quality chances.
Seven of the eight saves Strakosha made for Albania came from efforts with a combined 0.52 xG, while three of Simon’s five saves for Spain saw just 0.23 xG in total. Given Italy’s outstanding defense, and the fact a draw sees them through in second place — barring an Albania win over Spain — the Azzurri can sit back and force Croatia into taking more low-quality attempts.
Donnarumma has made at least three saves in 11 of his last 13 matches against teams participating in Euro 2024, including the two this year. Unless he just has an awful day and stops nothing, I don’t picture a scenario where Gigi won’t make at least three saves.
Croatia will be desperate, and he’ll see plenty of chances to reach that plateau. Getting him at this price is exceptional value, and I recommend grabbing it before the odds become less favorable.
Croatia vs Italy same-game parlay (SGP)
Gianluigi Donnarumma Over 2.5 saves
Next team to score: Italy
Draw
Eighteen of Italy’s last 26 goals in all matches have come in the first 45, and while they’ve also conceded first in both of their matches so far, one of those came from a horrific mistake in the opening minute. After that, they didn’t concede another shot on goal vs. Albania.
Croatia have conceded the first goal in both their group-stage matches, and their situation will force them to throw bodies forward. I like Italy to find the first goal here against an old and tired Croatian side that will leave gaps in the back.
I’m not usually one for betting trends but draws are an exception. There are certain fixtures where there’s just something that happens when two teams meet. Their styles mesh perfectly, players seemingly can’t finish chances, and things ultimately end in a stalemate. This is one of those fixtures.
Croatia have never lost in eight meetings between these clubs, but they’ve also split the spoils five different times. Each of the last three have ended with a 1-1 scoreline, and I think this ends more along the lines of 2-2, but that should be enough to send Italy through in second place.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Croatia vs Italy odds
| Croatia | Italy | |
|---|---|---|
| +240 | Moneyline | +137 |
| Over 2.5 (-110) | Total | Under 2.5 (-110) |
| +225 | Draw | +225 |
Odds courtesy of Betano on 6-22.
Croatia vs Italy game info
| Location: | Leipzig Stadium, Leipzig, Germany |
| Date: | Monday, June 24, 2024 |
| Time: | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
| Weather: | Sunny, lows 70s with no chance of rain |
Not intended for use in MA.
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