Euro 2024 Group D Odds, Predictions, and Betting Guide

We are just days away from the start of Euro 2024, and the winner of Group D is likely to play a key role in determining who lifts the trophy.

France are second-favorite to win the competition per the Euro 2024 odds, and the World Cup runners-up are hoping to beat the Netherlands to win the group.

Austria will hope to play spoiler and find enough points to qualify as one of the best third-place finishers while Poland — without their talisman Robert Lewandowski — will be hoping just to survive.  

Join me as I break down the best betting angles ahead of Euro 2024.

Euro 2024 Group D odds to advance

France are heavy favorites to advance at -2,500 but at just -175 to win the Group, will face stiff competition from the Netherlands (+285). Austria (+630) and Poland (+1,450) are rightful outsiders. 

Country	To advance	To win group
France	-2,500	-175
Netherlands	-417	+285
Austria	-161	+630
Poland	+192	+1,850

Odds courtesy of Betano as of 6-11

Euro 2024 Group D best bet

Kylian Mbappe 5+ tournament goals (+145 at Betano)

Kylian Mbappe did everything he could in the 2022 World Cup Finals, including bagging a hat trick vs. Argentina. 

The goals gave Mbappe eight for the competition, despite starting just six of the seven matches. And while two came from the spot in the final, those were the only two penalties France earned the entire tournament — meaning he was routinely putting them home from open play.

Mbappe is in fine form, and finished out his final season with PSG by leading them to the Champions League semis. He notched 35 goals across 41 matches in Ligue 1 and Champions League while setting up seven others. 

He outperformed his combined 29.0 xG in the two competitions, and that’s not counting his nine goals during Euro qualifying for France. Mbappe started seven of France’s eight matches, and once again was a force. 

The striker scored six goals from open play and three more from the penalty spot. He scored a goal every 4.1 shots and attempted more than five shots per 90 minutes. He was the leading force behind a French attack that recorded 29 goals. That includes five goals in two matches against the Dutch — four of which were scored by Mbappe.

Mbappe is the market leader in the Euro 2024 top goal scorer odds, and five of the last seven top scorers at the European Championships have scored five or more goals. Look for Mbappe to eclipse that mark as France makes a run to the final. 

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Euro 2024 Group D team previews

France (-175 to win group)

With the deepest squad in the tournament, France looks to continue their decade of dominance. They arguably have a Top 5 player in the world at every position, and rolled through their qualifiers conceding just three goals in eight matches while scoring 29 and taking 22 of 24 possible points.

Those qualifiers included two matches against the Dutch, whom they defeated 4-0 and 2-1. They have five different forwards who can contribute, one of the best backlines in the world, and are odds-on favorites to top the group. 

France will look to limit goals and hit on the counter-attack and should defeat Austria and Poland with ease. I will be surprised if they don’t take all nine points on offer.

Netherlands (+285 to win group)

The Dutch should qualify with ease, but they’re not going to be a pushover for France. They conceded just seven goals in qualifiers, with France scoring six of them. But they have some promising young players in attack, and they’re spoiled for choice in central defense with the likes of Virgil van Dijk, Nathan Ake, Matthijs de Ligt, and Micky van de Ven. 

The Netherlands reached the World Cup quarter-finals where they made a valiant comeback to force extra time against Argentina but eventually lost on penalties. They’re good value to make another run here, but manager Ronald Koeman is going to need to get his tactics right and figure out a midfield that can provide reliable performances.

Austria (+630 to win group)

The loss of David Alaba is a massive one for Austria and manager Ralf Rangnick. The Real Madrid defender is out until after the summer with a torn ACL, and the Austrian captain has been a key playmaker and the main cog in helping them build from the back.

Marcel Sabitzer and Konrad Laimer can pick up the playmaking slack, but Austria needs to find a reliable goal contributor at striker if they’re to find enough points to reach the knockout stages. Still, they finished just one point behind Belgium in their qualifying group, the only team to defeat Austria in their last 14 matches.

Poland (+1,850 to win group)

Poland are fortunate to even be in the competition, qualifying only after defeating Wales via penalties in a play-off match. But what slim hopes they had of pulling off an upset took a massive blow just before the tournament, as veteran striker Robert Lewandowski was ruled out of the opener against the Netherlands with a torn biceps muscle.

This leaves Poland without their leading scorer in terms of both Euro qualifying and all-time. There is hope he could return for the second match against Austria, but it might simply be a bridge too far for the Poles. He will have to hope from the sideline that his team can find a way to steal results without him.

Goalkeeper Wojciech Szczesny gives them tested steel between the posts, but like many in the team he's nearing the end of his international career. The likes of Krzysztof Piątek and Piotr Zielinski must take a big step forward in Lewandowski's absence. That said, Poland have been serial underperformers in the past, and navigating this group without their star striker makes it difficult to see that trend changing. 

Euro 2024 Group D players to watch

Kylian Mbappe (France/Real Madrid*)

Mbappe is arguably the best player in the world right now, and he will try to join an elite group of players who have lifted both the World Cup and the Henri Delaunay Trophy. He was named the Young Player of the Tournament at the 2018 World Cup as he scored four goals, but failed to score a single goal in four matches at the 2020 Euros. 

Mbappe is on fire right now, and he has something to prove after his poor performance three years ago. He will need to be locked in if France are to claim victory in this competition.   

Mbappe — Top goal scorer (+450 at Betano)

Xavi Simons (Netherlands/RB Leipzig)

Simons is a gifted playmaker who registered 11 assists in the Bundesliga this season for RB Leipzig, the second-most in the league. He ranked fourth in the league in chances created and scored eight goals as well. He’s extremely fast, adept at pressing and winning the ball, and could be the playmaker the Dutch have desperately needed. 

Simons — UEFA Young Player of the Tournament (+900 at Betano)

Antoine Griezmann (France/Atletico Madrid)

At 33 years old, Griezmann is entering the final years of a decorated international career and is coming off a season where he registered 22 goals and seven assists for Atletico Madrid. He started all eight matches for France in qualifiers with a goal and assist, and he tied for the tournament lead with three assists at World Cup 2022. 

With defenses keying on Mbappe and his pace not what it used to be, Griezmann could become France’s most important playmaker. 

Griezmann — Top assistman (+1,700 at Betano)

Euro Cup Group D schedule

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