Italy opens their defense of the European Championships on Saturday when they host Albania at the BVB Stadion in Dortmund.
The Azzurri followed up their Euro 2020 victory by failing to qualify for World Cup 2022; they hope to show that result was just a fluke. They’ve unfortunately been drawn into the Group of Death, but Albania offers a chance to start with three points. With that said, Albania’s no pushover, having won their qualifying group and possessing a very staunch defense.
Our Italy vs. Albania predictions and Euro 2024 picks explain why that defense should lead to profitability for bettors.
Italy vs Albania picks and predictions
My best bet:
Under 2.5 (-128 at Betano)
My analysis
The Under 2.5 being priced at -128 is better than the -145 odds I’ve projected it at. For me, that’s enough of an edge that I’m willing to pay a bit more juice than usual.
That’s because of how these two teams play, and what's at stake in this opening match of group play for each side. Italy knows they cannot afford to lose this match if they want to advance from the toughest group in the tournament, while Albania knows hitting on the counter is the best way for them to pull off an upset.
And Albania has that ability. This is a team that likes to play direct, playing long balls either to their tall striker Armando Broja of Chelsea for knock-downs to dynamic wingers like Jasir Asani, or via diagonal passes down the wings. They’re also adept at hitting from long range, with five of their 14 goals from qualification scored from outside the box.
However, Italy’s 3-5-2 formation will help negate a lot of that counter-attacking ability and will help keep Albania pinned in as they look to break down the underdog’s low block. Much of what Italy’s done of late under Luciano Spalletti is based on interchanging play on the wings, with attacking fullbacks.
While it’s entertaining, it makes it tougher for the Azzurri to break down the center of a compact defense when they lack a true central playmaker. That’s a big reason why they’ve managed just five goals in their last five matches, including friendlies.
Making matters more concerning is the fitness of midfielder Nicolo Barella, who's training individually while battling a thigh muscle issue and is a doubt for the match. Without him, the Italians will play even more cautiously and methodically, limiting the opportunities for goals in either direction.
Italy should find a way through, most likely via in-form striker Gianluca Scamacca, but nothing’s guaranteed against an Albanian defense that conceded just four goals in eight qualifying matches. I see them winning 1-0 or perhaps 2-0, but either way, bank on a low-scoring affair.
Italy vs Albania same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 2.5
Jasir Asani 2+ shots
Gianluca Scamacca 1+ shots on goal
Standing 6-foot-4, Scamacca offers a threat in the air as well as on the ground. According to Opta, the Azzurri rank sixth among the 53 teams who participated in Euro qualifications in xG per 100 corners taken.
When Albania counters, Asani is going to be the man Italian defenders must quickly locate. He’s happy to shoot from any distance, and he’s taken 2+ shots in five straight matches for Albania.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Italy vs Albania odds
| Italy | Albania | |
|---|---|---|
| -238 | Moneyline | +725 |
| Over 2.5 (+105) | Total | Under 2.5 (-128) |
| +340 | Draw | +340 |
Odds courtesy of Betano on 6-15.
Italy vs Albania game info
| Location: | Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund, Germany |
| Date: | Saturday, June 15, 2024 |
| Time: | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
| Weather: | 61F, Wind 9-22 mph, POP 7% |
Not intended for use in MA.
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