The first semifinal of Euro 2020 is set, with Italy continuing their fabulous run of form with a decisive win in the quarterfinals to put an end to Belgium's underwhelming golden generation.
Italy's win in Munich meant they would be joining Spain at Wembley on Tuesday, July 6, after Spain had gotten past 10-man Switzerland in penalties earlier on Friday.
Which of these two European powerhouses will return to the Euro finals? Read on for our tips and predictions.
Game info
• Location: Wembley Stadium, London, England
• Date: Tuesday, July 6, 2021
• Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN, TSN
Italy vs Spain betting tips
- Italy (+160)
- Under 2.5 (-163)
Read on for complete analysis
Italy vs Spain match odds
Italy: +160
Spain: +190
Draw: +210
Total: 2.5
Over 2.5: +130
Under 2.5: -163
Odds as of July 2, 2021, at 5:40 p.m. ET.
Euro 2020 sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonItaly opened as a +150 favorite on Saturday at BetMGM Nevada, with Spain a +200 underdog and Draw +210 on the three-way moneyline. At 1:15 p.m. ET, less than two hours before the match, Italy is into +145, while Spain and Draw haven't moved. "We need Spain or Draw. We're a loser with Italy," BetMGM Nevada's Jeff Stoneback said. "There are four times more tickets written on Italy than Spain, and money is six times more on Italy." Spain and Draw are both seeing nominal ticket and money count. The total opened at 2.5 (Under -155) and is now 2 (Over -130). "Ticket count is 3/1 and money 5/1on the Over, but not a whole lot of tickets or money," Stoneback said. For Euro championship futures purposes, BetMGM also needs Spain, the book's best outcome among the four teams remaining, while Italy is a small futures loser.
Italy vs Spain betting preview
Weather
By kickoff on Tuesday, afternoon rain will have gone away, leaving some clouds and temperatures expected around 60 degrees Fahrenheit with 75 percent humidity.
Key injuries
Italy: Alessandro Florenzi (Questionable), Leonardo Spinazzola (Out).
Spain: No injuries to report.
Matchup
| Italy | Spain | |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | World Ranking | 6 |
| 11 | Goals For | 12 |
| 2 | Goals Against | 5 |
| 2-1 vs. Belgium | Previous Game | 1-1 vs. Switzerland (3-1 in penalties) |
| Marco Verratti | Player to Watch | Pedri |
Italy vs Spain predictions
Moneyline pick
On the back of an outstanding quarterfinals performance, Italy are right back where they were after the group stage as an obvious contender to win Euro 2020. An underwhelming Round of 16 win over Austria, easily their least convincing of the tournament, was followed by a decisive win over Belgium to send the No. 1 team in the world home.
Italy's defensive bona fides were shown in the win over Belgium, as the Red Devils tried unsuccessfully to use a clever tactical shift. In theory, Belgium's approach of having striker Romelu Lukaku drift wide and isolate against a very attacking full-back in Leonardo Spinazzola, while talisman Kevin De Bruyne played through the middle, was brilliant. However, excellent Italian organization won the day, with goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma coming up with a few timely stops for his part.
Going forward, they were equally encouraging. Despite the worst game of the tournament from striker Ciro Immobile, Italy created 1.7 expected goals, as Lorenzo Insigne was able to cut inside as often as he liked (which is very often) and Federico Chiesa's long overdue addition to the starting lineup provided a boost.
While Italy ride a superb performance into the semifinals, it's a different story for Spain. After netting 10 times in two matches, the lethargic Spain team that began the tournament returned against Switzerland. Spain mustered just 1.02 expected goals in 90 minutes against Switzerland and, despite playing a man up for over half an hour, did not show much urgency at all before the two teams reached penalties.
Though Spain snuck through into the semifinals despite allowing their quarterfinal to reach penalties, they're unlucky to now meet an Italy side that has been the better team from the first whistle at Euro 2020.
PREDICTION: Italy (+160)
Over/Under pick
Obviously, with a trip to the final on the line, semifinals of major tournaments are often cagey affairs. Of the 10 World Cup and Euro seminals since 2010, only three have topped 2.5 goals in 90 minutes, with two pushed Over due to injury-time consolation goals, and the other coming in Brazil's famous 7-1 loss to Germany in 2014.
Italy's defensive record in recent history speaks for itself, with just two goals conceded in over 1,000 minutes. Despite conceding a penalty which was converted, their performance in the defensive half against Belgium was possibly their most impressive of the tournament. Belgium tried to use Lukaku and De Bruyne's world-class movement and intelligence off the ball to exploit Italy, but they rarely found success in doing so.
Expect Italy to lockdown their defensive half yet again and advance to the final of Euro 2020 in a low-scoring game.
PREDICTION: Under 2.5 (-163)
Picks made on 7/2/2021 at 7:30 p.m. ET
Euro 2020 betting sites
As a signature tournament for the most popular sport in the world, almost every online sportsbook and betting site will offer odds for Euro 2020. Check out the best soccer betting sites available where you live.
