After narrow opening game losses, there’s no margin for error for Poland or Austria as they collide in Berlin on Friday – and the fitness of Robert Lewandowski looms over this big Group B clash.
With Lewandowski sidelined by a thigh injury, the Poles slipped to a 2-1 defeat against the Netherlands on Sunday, but their sharpshooter returned to training this week and is likely to feature here.
Though Austria are coming off a 1-0 loss to France, Ralf Rangnick’s men enter as favorites in the latest Euro 2024 odds and will still believe they can qualify. I break down their chances in my free Poland vs Austria predictions and Euro 2024 picks for this June 21 showdown.
Poland vs Austria picks, predictions, and betting tips
My best bet:
Over 2.5 (-105 at Betano)
My analysis
The reality for both Poland and Austria is that a draw on Friday would leave an uphill task to qualify with tricky final group games on deck. So I expect an open game at Olympiastadion Berlin fueled by two teams chasing the three points.
The Over on 2.5 total goals comes at a good price, and that’s where I’m looking for my best bet, especially after the encouraging news on Lewandowski. Poland were on the back foot without their top marksman against the Netherlands, but Nicola Zalewski carried a threat on the left wing and Adam Buksa, who put the Poles ahead, deputized admirably up front.
They’ve also been a magnet for high-scoring games. Four of Poland’s last five games have served up at least three goals, and they had seven shots on target on Sunday despite a defense-first approach.
But this pick is equally about Austria’s ability to make an impact in the final third. Rangnick’s men pushed France hard in their opening contest, shading possession and matching Kylian Mbappe & Co. with three shots on target. If they had been a little more clinical, an upset was on the cards.
While the Austrians have trended towards tighter games, they piled up goals in a 6-1 victory over Turkey in March, powered by Michael Gregoritsch’s hat-trick, and found the net 17 times in their eight qualifying games for this tournament.
With an emphasis on the high press, Austria can be just as dangerous without the ball, and they haven’t been shut out in consecutive games since September 2022.
Given the way the Group B table looks so far, this is essentially a must-win game for both nations, and it would be a big surprise if it turns into a cagey stalemate. I’m counting on both teams to create chances.
Poland vs Austria same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 2.5
Christoph Baumgartner anytime goal
Austria moneyline
I’m expecting goals in this high-stakes battle, and Christoph Baumgartner is among the likeliest Austria scorers in their talented front four.
He had scored in five straight games for his country entering Euro 2024 and missed a golden chance to extend that streak against France on Monday.
Baumgartner’s midfield runs are a big part of the Austrians’ gameplan and I’m backing the RB Leipzig man to deliver again. It certainly helps that Poland only have two clean sheets from their past eight contests.
I’m also padding my SGP with the Austria moneyline. Their 4-2-3-1 formation gives Konrad Laimer and Marcel Sabitzer freedom to impact the game in the final third, and Rangnick has the option of using the unpredictable Marko Arnautovic off the bench again or as a starter.
The Austrians only lost once in their Euro 2024 qualifying campaign, and they feel like a safer play on Friday with question marks over how many minutes Lewandowski can get through. Poland’s dismal recent record at the European Championships is a consideration too – they’ve won just two of their last 13 games on this stage.
It’s also worth remembering that Michal Probierz’s men could have been on the end of a rout at the weekend if the Dutch had taken their first-half chances.
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Poland vs Austria odds
| Poland | Austria | |
|---|---|---|
| +255 | Moneyline | +122 |
| Over 2.5 (-105) | Total | Under 2.5 (-118) |
| +240 | Draw | +240 |
Odds courtesy of Betano on 6-20.
Poland vs Austria game info
| Location: | Olympiastadion Berlin, Berlin, Germany |
| Date: | Friday, June 21, 2024 |
| Time: | 12:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FS1 |
| Weather: | Scattered thunderstorms, temperatures in high 70s |
Not intended for use in MA.
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