Everton vs Manchester United Predictions and Picks: Everton Begin the Climb

While Manchester United is a big draw, the biggest storyline heading into this game is how Everton responds after being deducted 10 points for Fair-Play violations. Our EPL predictions expect the Toffees to come out fired up and collect three points.

Sam Farley - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Sam Farley • Betting Analyst
Nov 24, 2023 • 15:28 ET • 4 min read
Dominic Calvert-Lewin Everton EPL
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Sunday’s final Premier League game between Everton and Man Utd is an interesting one that is set to be one of the stories of the weekend, regardless of the result. For once it isn’t Man Utd’s struggles that are the main headline, but rather Everton’s 10-point deduction and how they’ll react to it.

Based on the circumstances and EPL odds, this could be a seriously feisty game, so strap yourselves in for a wild ride. Don’t miss our Everton vs Manchester United EPL predictions to find out.

Everton vs Manchester United best odds

EPL predictions for Everton vs Manchester United

Sunday’s biggest and most important Premier League game sees Everton welcome Manchester United to Goodison Park. It’s going to be full of TV cameras and journalists looking to see the reaction of Everton fans after the Premier League deducted 10 points from the club for breaches of financial fair play.

That 10-point deduction has forced Everton back into the relegation zone where they entered the weekend 19th, level on four points with Burnley but ahead down to a superior goal difference. They are only two points behind Luton who now sit in safety in 17th. In truth, you imagine that Everton should still be safe. They looked far improved this season under Sean Dyche and if they maintain those levels they’ll fight their way out of this.

So impressed have I been with Everton that I’m backing the boys in blue to get the three points on Sunday and pick up three important points. Firstly, pre-reduction Everton had only seven points less after 12 games than Manchester United. That speaks to Everton’s improvements, they have only conceded 17 goals this season, a number that only two teams in the bottom half have a better record than.

It also speaks to the failures at Man Utd. After 12 games they’ve scored 13 goals, the lowest tally of any top-half Premier League team by some margin and worryingly five of the other six teams in European qualification spots have at least double the amount of goals scored. Defensively they’ve allowed 16 goals, not a terrible return but still somewhat less than the teams at the top of the table.

More worrying for United is what seems like discontent from players towards Erik ten Hag. Since arriving at Old Trafford he’s done a lot to ensure that his authority isn’t challenged, Including selling Cristiano Ronaldo and his recent fallout with Jadon Sancho, but there are continuing stories that the likes of Raphael Varane are unhappy at the club. The players don’t look like they’re fighting together as a unit, which is a big contrast to what we are going to see from Everton on Sunday.

We’ve seen Sean Dyche say that he thinks the punishment was disproportionate and we know that this feeling of being ill-treated will help Dyche galvanize the squad more and bring them together. It’s certainly got the fanbase together and that’s going to give the players a huge advantage. It’s already been confirmed that the Premier League is so concerned by the reaction from fans that they won’t be broadcasting live crowd noise from the ground on Sunday.

If the atmosphere is as hostile and fierce as they are expecting, and I believe it will be, then it’s going to give Everton a huge boost, and crucially make it a nightmare for Man Utd. We’ve seen from this Man Utd team that they’re mentally weak and I believe that they’ll crumble if Goodison Park becomes a caldron of hate and anger. At +160 you’re getting a big price on an Everton win, especially when Man Utd has been so poor all season. I feel like it’s a great wager for the big game.

My best bet: Everton moneyline (+160 at TonyBet)

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Everton vs Manchester United same-game parlay

Everton moneyline

Dominic Calvert-Lewin to score

Amadou Onana to be booked

Our Same-Game Parlay for Everton vs Man Utd comes in at +1400 so let’s get stuck straight into it.

As always we’re starting with our best bet for the game which is for Sean Dyche’s Everton to take the three points. They’ve been impressive at times this season, which Man Utd certainly haven’t been. However, the main reason for backing Everton isn’t one that I can back up with stats and figures, it’s a pure hunch. I’m certain that the noise around the points deduction will ensure the game is heated and the atmosphere will help a galvanized Everton take the three points.

Secondly, we will back Dominic Calvert-Lewin to score. He’s managed to stay fairly fit this season and started seven games and is set to be up front on Sunday. He’s only bagged three goals this year but let’s focus on what we know about DCL, he is a fantastic striker when he is on the field. He’s big, and physical and will be a handful for a banged-up Man Utd backline. He has a reach chance of scoring here and for Everton to win I think he will.

To wrap up the SGP we’re backing Belgian midfielder Amadou Onana to get booked. He’s only had one card in 11 Premier League games this season, but we can’t forget that last year he picked up nine in 33 Premier League games. With everything surrounding this game, I think we’ll see Onana get his name back in the referee's book.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Everton vs Manchester United side and Over/Under analysis

I’m backing Everton to win at +160 here but if you have a strong lean either way on the result then there’s good value to be had. The draw is available at a big +250 and the away win at +150 if you fancy Erik ten Hag’s men to deepen Everton's woes.

You can get -154 on Both Teams to Score which feels very short to me. As does the Over 2.5 goals at -125. I think you’re getting a better price in backing Under 2.5 at +100, with this game primed to be quite tight and low-scoring.

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Everton vs Manchester United game info

Location: Goodison Park, Liverpool, England
Date: Sunday, November 26, 2023
Time: 11:30 a.m. ET
TV: Peacock Premium, fubo TV, Sling Blue, Hulu + Live TV
Weather: Text

Everton vs Manchester United key injuries

Everton: Seamus Coleman RB (Out), Dele Alli CM (Out), Andre Gomes CM (Out), Amadou Onana CM (Questionable)
Manchester United: Lisandro Martinez CB (Out), Tyrell Malacia LB (Out), Casemiro CM (Out), Christian Eriksen CM (Out), Jadon Sancho FWR (Out), Andre Onana GK (Questionable), Luke Shaw LB (Questionable), Rasmus Hojlund STR (Questionable), Jonny Evans CB (Questionable), Aaron Wan-Bissaka RB (Questionable)

Everton vs Manchester United recent league form

Teams Recent Premier League Form
Everton Everton W-D-W-L-W
Manchester United Manchester United W-W-L-W-W

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Betting Analyst

Sam is based in the United Kingdom, where he grew up living and breathing soccer, before discovering - and playing - a different kind of football at the University of Bristol. He’s worked in the media covering soccer and the NFL for the better part of a decade, and has been a regular on the Matchbook NFL Podcast. His work has also appeared in a wide range of publications including The Telegraph, The Independent, VICE, and MSN.

The search for great betting value is a daily one, and Sam always hunts out big prices with a particular focus on player props. Sam’s best advice for bettors is to track their bets on a spreadsheet, that way you can keep an eye on your P&L but also the types of bets and sports that you are most successful in. He also recommends using a variety of different sportsbooks, with bet365, Betfair and Paddy Power amongst his favorites.

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