Two of the biggest stars in MLS will meet on Saturday when Inter Miami hosts New York Red Bulls at Chase Stadium.
My Inter Miami vs. New York Red Bulls predictions are backing NYRB to find the back of the net against Miami early in what should be an exciting match.
Inter Miami vs New York Red Bulls picks and predictions
My best bet:
New York Red Bulls Over 0.5 goals first half (+124 at TonyBet)
My analysis
Inter Miami’s enjoying a three-match win streak, but they’ve not made things easy for themselves. In fact, they’ve had to dig out of a hole each time.
Tomas Chancalay’s first-minute strike for New England last weekend proved to be nothing more than consolation in a 4-1 win for Inter Miami, but it was the third match running that Miami trailed inside of six minutes.
While they haven’t always trailed early this season, conceding in the first half has been an issue for Inter Miami. And it hasn’t mattered if they have a full-strength squad or are heavily rotated or whether they’re playing in front of friendly fans or not. They’ve now seen their defenses breached before the referee blew for halftime in eight consecutive matches.
I’m betting on the New York Red Bulls to run that streak to nine straight matches when the teams meet on Saturday. The Red Bulls have lost just once in their six away matches this season. They’ve also found the back of the net in the first 45 in four of their last five road fixtures.
In fact, they’ve had better first-half results away from home so far in 2024, with just three 1H tallies in six matches.
Red Bulls put four past Miami at home earlier this season, with Lewis Morgan opening the scoring just three minutes into proceedings. Morgan would add a second just minutes after half, opening the floodgates as the Herons were humiliated with Messi relegated to watching from the sidelines.
The Red Bulls have changed their tactics from last year, shifting from a team with a pressing high line to a side that is more dangerous on the counter-attack with Emil Forsberg pulling the strings. That’s one of Miami’s biggest weaknesses and a big reason why they continue to concede early.
With Miami likely pressing as they seek some revenge combined with the absence of Jordi Alba through injury, I’ll happily bet on another first-half goal for NYRB with +124 odds on the table.
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Lionel Messi odds
There’s wide variance on Messi player props, so make sure you shop around. He’s priced between -120 and -155 to score anytime, with multiple goals priced between +330 and +380.
It’s a similar story with shots. Messi to have 5+ shots can be had between -125 and -155, while 3+ shots on target varies from +150 to +225.
Inter Miami vs New York Red Bulls Same-Game Parlay (SGP)
New York Red Bulls team total Over 0.5 1H
Inter Miami team total Over 0.5 first half
Lionel Messi anytime goalscorer
Messi’s been on a tear since returning from injury. He’s scored in four straight and assisted in each of the three consecutive wins, with a total of six goals and three assists in the month of April.
I also like both teams to find the back of the net before halftime. The Herons have scored before the break in four of their last five matches, while New York’s last five matches have seen them concede first-half goals on three occasions.
Miami will be out for blood in front of their home fans, and I don’t see New York’s defense withstanding for a full half.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Inter Miami vs New York Red Bulls odds
Inter Miami vs New York Red Bulls live odds
Inter Miami vs New York Red Bulls opening odds
- Moneyline: Inter Miami -111 | New York Red Bulls +235
- Draw: 260
- Over/Under: Over 2.75 (-118) | Under 2.75 (-118)
Inter Miami vs New York Red Bulls side and Over/Under analysis
- Inter Miami are favored at -105, with little movement over the past week. Red Bulls are second favorite, while some late money has been coming in on the draw at +280.
- Red Bulls have drawn three straight fixtures, while Miami is on a three-match winning run.
- The total has shifted to 3.0, with the Under seeing the majority of the juice at -135.
- There have been 3+ goals in eight of Miami’s last nine matches and 4+ in four straight.
Inter Miami vs New York Red Bulls game info
| Location: | Chase Stadium, Fort Lauderdale, FL |
| Date: | Saturday, May 4, 2024 |
| Time: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Apple TV |
| Weather: | Temp: 81 F, Wind: 13-25 mph, POP: 1%, Humidity: 65% |
Inter Miami vs New York Red Bulls key injuries
Inter Miami: Jordi Alba D (Out), Federico Redondo M (Out), Serhiy Kryvtsov D (Out), Diego Gomez M (Out).
New York Red Bulls: Noah Eile D (Out), Peter Stroud M (Out), Serge Ngoma F (Doubtful).
Not intended for use in MA.
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