Inter Milan vs AC Milan Picks and Predictions: Time to Finish

Inter Milan will take the pitch this afternoon at the San Siro hoping to eliminate their cross-stadium rivals AC Milan from the Champions League after a 2-0 win a week ago.

The second leg of the Derby Della Madonnina semifinal features the Nerazzurri holding on to a 2-0 aggregate lead that easily could’ve been more. Milan will consider themselves fortunate they weren’t completely put to the sword after conceding two goals inside the opening quarter of an hour. They're also thankful VAR took away a potential penalty that could’ve added to the misery.

Inter is on a tear, whereas their rivals suffered a humiliating 2-0 defeat to a Spezia side facing relegation. Does that mean we should expect more of the same today? Or is there a comeback up the Rossoneri's sleeves?

We break down how the action should be wagered on in our free Inter Milan vs AC Milan picks and predictions for Tuesday, May 16.

Inter Milan vs AC Milan best odds

Inter Milan vs AC Milan picks and predictions

Inter and Milan will duke it out in front of a fired-up San Siro crowd for the fifth time in this 2022-23 campaign. Inter will be the home team during the second leg, and therefore will have three-fourths of the tickets for the stadium, making it overwhelmingly bathed in black and blue.

Black and blue could describe how badly battered Milan’s players felt after their 2-0 loss to Spezia on Saturday due to criticism from their own supporters. The Milan players spoke at length pitchside following the final whistle, and their traveling supporters laid into them. A partially rotated squad fell to a Spezia side that entered the weekend in the relegation zone and had earned just one victory in its previous 17 matches.

Now Milan must regroup and find a way to make history. A club has overcome a multi-goal semifinal second-leg deficit just once, and nothing Inter has shown over the past few weeks gives any indication they’re going to capitulate to their rivals. Inter haven’t even allowed Milan to score a goal during their last three meetings this season, and their clean sheet in the first leg is one of five the club has kept in its last seven matches.

Inter defeated Sassuolo 4-2 over the weekend, giving them seven wins on the trot in all competitions. They led 3-0 before conceding twice during the final half-hour, but Romelu Lukaku’s brace sealed all three points. He’s one of three strikers playing well for Inter right now, giving manager Simone Inzaghi plenty of options against Milan.

Milan have never gone four straight matches against their bitter rivals without scoring, and they were unfortunate to not cut the deficit in half. They finished with a 0.90 expected goal (xG) mark, but it took them too long to get creative. The Rossoneri clearly missed winger Rafael Leao, and manager Stefano Pioli gave fans hope when he announced on Sunday that the star will likely be ready to go after returning to training that morning.

I expect AC Milan to find the scoresheet, perhaps more than once. But it’s not going to matter if they can’t hold Inter scoreless. The Nerazzurri are simply playing too well at this point in the season, and it's tough to envision them falling apart. Milan is showing nothing to indicate they’ve got what it takes to spoil their rival’s party.

I could play it safe and take Inter to win outright, but I’m feeling bold. That’s why my best bet is to pair the two items we’re about to go more in-depth on – Inter's moneyline, and a match total of more than 2.5 goals. Let's put them together in a same-game parlay that pays out quite handsomely.

My best bet: Inter Milan win and Over 2.5 goals SGP (+250 at DraftKings)

Inter Milan vs AC Milan side analysis

Their 2-0 win last week was Inter’s seventh straight, and during that spell they outscored their opponents by a stunning 21-3 margin. They’ve won four straight at the San Siro, including the “away” first leg, and Inter is unbeaten in its last five matches. Defenders Milan Skriniar and Dalbert continue to be absent. But regardless of who Inzaghi starts up top, he’s going to boast nearly the same XI as he did a week ago.

Milan are struggling at the worst possible time. Their loss to Spezia saw them drop four points adrift of Inter for the fourth and final Champions League spot next season, and it’s unlikely they’ll be able to make up that ground with only three matches left. Leao’s availability will be key to them getting any hope of pulling off a historic comeback. But losing midfielder Ismael Bennacer in the first leg is a massive blow as well, while Junior Messias is doubtful after also coming off injured.

Inter have kept a clean sheet in the last three meetings with Milan, and in five of their previous six. They’ve outscored Milan 8-3 across their four clashes this season, and it’s unlikely the club slips up here. Don't pass up the opportunity to get Inter right now at plus odds to win outright.

Inter Milan vs AC Milan Over/Under analysis

You’d expect me to be on the Under in this match given Inter’s defensive prowess lately. The public is backing that play at a price of -130 or worse across the board.

But I’m going the opposite direction. Milan have nothing to lose on Tuesday, and they can’t exactly sit back and try to make plays late with a two-goal hole to climb from. Not that it really matters to begin with, as they’ve been outscored 4-0 over their last two matches.

Leao’s return makes them much more dangerous going forward, and he'll link up with Theo Hernandez down the left flank. Inter will look to hit them on the counterattack in the space the French fullback vacates, which should lead to some scoring opportunities.

Milan’s last 10 matches have all gone Under the 2.5 goal mark, but Inter has been scoring at will lately. Five of their previous eight matches have gone Over the 2.5 goal tally, and Inter scored at least three goals on their own in each of those outings. Milan’s desperation should result in a more open affair than many seem to expect, so I’ll take the value on the Over here.

Inter Milan vs AC Milan game info

Inter Milan vs AC Milan key injuries

Inter Milan: Milan Skriniar D (Out), Dalbert D (Out)
AC Milan: Rafael Leao F (Probable), Ismael Bennacer M (Out), Junior Messias M (Doubtful).

Inter Milan vs AC Milan weather

There could be wet playing conditions on Tuesday night. Temperatures will be in the mid-60s at kickoff, but there’s a 33% chance of rain that increases as the match goes on.

Should extra time be needed, it would likely be a wet one. Winds shouldn’t impact play much, with gusts no higher than 10 mph.

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