The CONCACAF Nations League quarterfinals are here, and one of the most intriguing ties pits the surging Jamaicans against a talented Canada team searching for a new identity.
Building on a run to the last four at the Gold Cup this summer, the Reggae Boyz have hardly missed a beat since then, with three wins and a draw in the Nations League group stage, including a 4-1 victory over Grenada.
It’s a very different story in the Canadian camp, with John Herdman’s exit as manager followed by a 4-1 thumping at the hands of Japan last month – and Canada’s seeding meant they didn’t have to go through the qualifying stage to reach the Nations League knockout rounds.
Read on for our free Jamaica vs Canada picks and predictions ahead of this November 17 showdown.
Jamaica vs Canada best odds
 Jamaica |
 Canada |
|
|---|---|---|
| +202 | Moneyline | +120 |
| +219 | Draw | +219 |
| Over 2.5 (+115) | Total | Under 2.5 (-175) |
Odds courtesy of TonyBet on November 16, 2023.
Jamaica vs Canada picks and predictions
A lot has changed for Jamaica and Canada since their last meeting in World Cup qualifying in March 2022. The Canadians cruised to a 4-0 win that day, but there hasn’t been much smooth sailing for Alphonso Davies & Co. over the past 12 months. Meanwhile, the Jamaicans have closed the gap with an impressive run of results, headlined by a strong showing at the Gold Cup.
But even with these teams trending in somewhat different directions, they share a common strength: their attackers. Jamaica’s attack continues to pose problems with a mix of pace and power. Demarai Gray, Shamar Nicholson, and Leon Bailey all made an impact in Nations League action last month and will have key roles again on Friday.
Though the Canadians looked out of sorts against Japan in October, they’ve scored in four of their last five games and will always be dangerous as long as Davies, Cyle Larin, and Jonathan David are on the field together.
I expect both teams to be in scoring form in Friday’s first leg, and I love the BTTS odds. The Reggae Boyz found the net 10 times in their four Nations League group games to qualify for the quarterfinals but only kept one clean sheet.
Though there’s a second leg on Tuesday to think about, I don’t expect that to alter the respective game plans. Neither team is really set up to take a cautious approach, and good things happen when they’re on the front foot.
It could be a long night for defenders at Independence Park, and I’m betting both teams will find a way through.
My best bet: Both teams to score - Yes (-107 at TonyBet)
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Jamaica vs Canada same-game parlay
Both teams to score - Yes
Over 2.5
Alphonso Davies anytime scorer
The BTTS prop taps into the goal threat presented by both nations in this quarterfinal battle, and I’m dialing that up a notch by adding the Over 2.5 total goals prop in this SGP.
It ties back to the same argument that we should get an open, attacking first leg — and it’s easier to trust the teams’ proven forwards than the shakier defenses.
I’m also adding the Davies anytime goalscorer prop. Larin and David have both struggled for goals at club level this season, so I’m turning instead to Davies, who gets to play in a more advanced position in a Canada jersey than he does with Bayern Munich.
The Canadians’ ability to spring forward and counter-attack so effectively often stems from Davies driving midfield runs down the left wing, and I’m taking the odds for him to get on the scoresheet on Friday.
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Jamaica vs Canada side and Over/Under analysis
This quarterfinal matchup stands out as a potential thriller between two evenly matched teams with dynamic options in the final third. The Canadians are tagged as slight favorites but you could certainly make the case that Jamaica bring a bigger attacking threat in their current form.
After all, the Jamaicans' last loss at Independence Park came back in January 2022, and Heimir Hallgrimsson’s men are unbeaten in the five games they’ve played since the Gold Cup semifinal defeat against Mexico.
Meanwhile, Canada have just a single win from their last six fixtures — and that came against Cuba in July. Interim boss Mauro Biello got off to a rough start with the lopsided loss to Japan, and there’s significant work ahead to revive a promising group that deservedly got the global spotlight at the 2022 World Cup.
I’ve already picked the BTTS prop and added the Over on 2.5 total goals to my SGP, so I’m all-in on there being scoring chances at both ends.
Neither defense has provided many reasons to think they can get the upper hand in this tie, and both managers can turn to reliable attackers off the bench too.
Jamaica vs Canada game info
| Location: | Independence Park, Kingston, Jamaica |
| Date: | Friday, November 17, 2023 |
| Time: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Fubo |
| Weather: | Rain, 30 degrees Celsius, 33 KM/h winds |
Jamaica vs Canada key injuries
Jamaica: Text.
Canada: Text.
