Juventus vs PSG Picks and Predictions: The Old Lady Gets Dropped

Despite their vastly different standings in the Group H table, both Juventus and PSG have something important to play for when they meet Wednesday in their final Champions League group-stage match. The visitors must win in order to ensure they claim first spot in the group, while the hosts need a win and help to secure a place in the Europa League knockout rounds.

Can the Old Lady salvage their campaign by staying alive in Europe? Or will the Parisians avoid the dreaded second pot in the upcoming knockout stage draw? Find out in our Juventus vs PSG picks and predictions for Wednesday, November 2.

Juventus vs PSG best odds

Juventus vs PSG picks and predictions

Juventus did everything they could to steal a win on Matchday 5 to keep alive their hopes of advancing to the Champions League knockout round. Down 4-1 to Benfica, they mounted a ferocious comeback but ultimately fell short in a 4-3 defeat. As such, the Old Lady will be absent from the Round of 16 for the first time in nearly a decade.

However, not all hope is lost. While they reside last in the group at the moment, they can still salvage a spot in European competition. Juventus needs a victory and a draw or loss from Maccabi Haifa to qualify for the Europa League knockout stages, or they need a draw and a Maccabi Haifa defeat. Any other combination of results would see their European hopes dashed. 

Given that they currently sit seventh in Serie A, this could be their only route to European football next season. Juventus have kept three straight clean sheets in the league, ending a spell that saw them claim just one win in five Serie A outings. However, it’s been feast or famine for the side as they’ve either shut out their opponent or been shut out themselves in seven of their last nine matches.

Juventus has real injury problems coming into this match, with forwards Dusan Vlahovic and Matias Soule both out. They will also be without key midfielders Weston McKennie, Angel di Maria, and Leandro Paredes. 

As for the visitors, PSG need a win or a draw combined with either a Benfica draw or loss to clinch the top spot in the group and to ensure their place in Pot A for the knockout draw. The Parisians are rolling at the moment, winners of four straight, including a 7-2 win over Maccabi Haifa last week. 

They were involved in a 4-3 thriller at the weekend against Troyes, as Lionel Messi, Kylian Mbappe, and Neymar all found the back of the net. Each member of the trio has scored in each of the last two matches, and at least one of them has done so in five straight. Neymar will not score in this match, however, as he picked up a suspension due to yellow card accumulation.

PSG are unbeaten this season in all competitions and have led at halftime in 14 of their 19 matches. They have also failed to score in the opening 45 minutes just twice. On the other hand, Juventus have scored in only nine of their 17 matches this season before halftime, and in just five of their last 12. That includes failing to score against PSG until the second half — a match they trailed in at halftime.

Juventus has trailed at the interval in three of their five Champions League group stage matches, and have been outscored 8-3 in the opening stanza. Given PSG’s need to get a result and the injury woes of the Old Lady, I like the visitors to once again lead at the half over the hosts.

My best bet: PSG -0.5 first-half Asian handicap (+120 at bet365)

Juventus vs PSG side analysis

Juventus have won their last three at home in all competitions, and have lost just once in eight home matches — their 2-1 defeat to Benfica. They’ve lost four of their five matches in the competition on the whole, with only a 3-1 win over Maccabi Haifa to their credit.

PSG have yet to taste defeat this season across all competitions and have dropped points just four times in 19 fixtures. Two of those matches were a pair of 1-1 draws with Benfica. Away from home, they’ve claimed victories in seven of their nine matches, with a win and a draw in Champions League on the road.

PSG are overwhelming favorites in the three-way market, with even a draw paying more than three to one. The market shifted quite a bit in PSG’s favor following the weekend’s results, and I see no reason to bet on Juventus in any way, given their concerns in attack and midfield and the form of the visitors.

Juventus vs PSG Over/Under analysis

Juventus have kept three clean sheets in a row in Serie A but gave up four goals last week to Benfica. They’ve managed four clean sheets in their eight home matches across all competitions, but none in the Champions League, home or away. They’ve been outscored 11-8 and have scored one or fewer goals in three of their matches. In addition, they’ve conceded at least two goals in four of their five matches.

PSG have been held scoreless just once away from home this season in all competitions, a match that saw them play the entire second half with 10 men. They’ve kept clean sheets in three of their last four matches on the road, and have scored at least three goals in three straight. However, in the Champions League, they’ve scored two or fewer goals in three of their five fixtures.

The total for this match is closer to 3.0 than the typical 2.5 according to the juiced odds. Juventus has seen four of their five Champions League matches reach that number, and it’s been reached in every PSG match in the competition not played against Benfica. That includes the 2-1 PSG win over Juventus in the reverse fixture.

Juventus vs PSG game info

Juventus vs PSG key injuries

Juventus: Paul Pogba M (Out), Dusan Vlahovic F (Out), Angel di Maria M (Out).
PSG: Neymar F (Suspended), Danilo Pereira D (Doubtful).

Juventus vs PSG recent form

Teams	Last five matches
Juventus	1-4-0
PSG	3-0-2

Juventus vs PSG weather

Conditions on Wednesday evening will be dry and clear, with temperatures in the mid-50s. No rain is expected and winds will be minimal.

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