Liverpool has one foot in the Champions League semi-finals as it welcomes Benfica to Anfield but will the Portuguese team manage to pull off something special and shock the world? At times it threatened Jurgen Klopp’s Liverpool in the first leg and will be hoping that it can go even further this time.
We break down Wednesday’s big Champions League clash between Liverpool vs. Benfica on April 13 in our free Champions League betting picks and predictions.
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Liverpool vs Benfica match odds
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Liverpool vs Benfica betting tips
Predictions made on 4/11/2022 at 7:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Liverpool vs Benfica game info
• Location: Anfield, Liverpool, England
• Date: Wednesday, April 13, 2022
• Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
• TV: DAZN, Paramount+
Liverpool vs Benfica betting preview
Weather
It’ll be a dry but cloudy day in Liverpool with the sun occasionally poking through the clouds. When this game kicks off at 8 p.m. local time temperatures will be around 50 degrees.
Injuries
Liverpool: No injuries to report.
Benfica: Lucas Verissimo CB (Out), Rodrigo Pinho ST (Out).
Liverpool vs Benfica predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Side analysis
Liverpool returned from the Estadio da Luz with a 3-1 lead and although away goals no longer count it has a two-goal cushion that leaves it heavy favorites to qualify. Is there anything Benfica can do to shock the world and earn a place in the semifinals of the Champions League?
To put it simply Liverpool is -20,000 to qualify for the next stage in the Champions League and if you’ve watched it play this season you’ll know exactly why, especially when it's sitting on a two-goal lead.
Fresh from an epic 2-2 battle with Man City on Sunday, Liverpool is now back in European competition against Benfica. Benfica played admirably at times in the first leg after initially starting slowly and looking like the game was going to get away from it.
Nelson Verissimo will likely set his team up in a 4-2-3-1 but it's clear that it’ll have to go on the offensive early in this game if it has any hopes of clawing back that two-goal deficit. A lot of its hopes rest on the shoulders of Darwin Nunez, with the 22-year-old Uruguayan now one of the hottest properties in the game.
The talented striker has 29 goals in 34 games for Benfica this season and the big clubs are starting to circle him, with Manchester United the latest big club to have been linked with a summer move. He found the net in the first leg and since then added another three goals to his tally in a sensational performance on the weekend as Benfica beat Belenenses.
He’s scored in each of his past four games and Verissimo will be hoping that continues. He’s quick and agile with his dribbling a major threat but one which Virgil van Dijk would be confident of defending against.
Benfica will need its aging pair of former Premier League defenders, Nicolas Otamendi and Jan Vertonghen to perform better in this game than in the first. Although the duo has plenty of experience they’re aging and don’t quite have the yard of pace that they did previously.
Losing pace is always a worry for a defender but when you’re facing Liverpool it becomes critical with its attack simply electric when in full flow. The thought of Luis Diaz, likely to be recalled to the starting XI, running at them will have the Benfica defense nervous.
There’s been some speculation that Klopp could reshuffle his team a little to rest players following that tough Man City game but it would be a risk to do that at this stage of the Champions League and I don’t believe he’d take that risk.
I’m confident that Liverpool will win this one but the odds of -350 don’t really make me want to bet it and there are far more attractive bets on the table.
Prediction: Liverpool (-350 at Bet365)
Over/Under analysis
We know all about the firepower that this Liverpool team possesses and its ability to find the back of the net but it goes into this game with a comfortable two-goal lead on aggregate. It just needs to be smart and calculated and see this tie out.
The Reds needs to control the game and score when given chances to put it beyond Benfica’s grasp and I think that's possible to do. I don’t think we’ll see a particularly high-scoring game with a likely score of 1-0 or 2-0 for Liverpool and ultimately I think it’ll do enough to secure the game and progress to the next round of the Champions League, without wanting to run its players into the ground any more than needed.
At odds of +205 the Under 2.5 goals market looks really generous and is well worth a small wager.
Prediction: Under 2.5 goals (+205 at FanDuel)
Best bet
Often in these Champions League games, we expect fireworks. The better teams are usually heavy favorites and the sportsbooks set their odds with the expectation of lots of goals.
The reality is that when you reach the business end of the Champions League, or indeed any other cup tournament, teams can often be more defensive and cautious choosing to be conservative rather than push to score more.
With that in mind, I think there is huge value in the halftime/fulltime market, notably backing there to be a draw at halftime and for Liverpool to be winning at fulltime.
I’m expecting the game to start fairly slow before more gaps appear in the second half but odds of +350 are so attractive with a draw in the first half followed by Liverpool going on to win being a very real possibility.
Pick: Draw/Liverpool (Halftime/Fulltime) (+350 at FanDuel)
