After a testing start to February on and off the pitch, Manchester City are under pressure to get their title challenge back on track against Aston Villa on Sunday.
City are coming off a disappointing 1-0 loss to Tottenham last weekend, despite 65% of the possession, and were rocked this week by more than 100 charges from the Premier League over alleged financial irregularities.
As for Villa, they’ve climbed to mid-table after finishing January with back-to-back wins but fell apart last time out, losing 4-2 at home to Leicester.
We’re setting the stage for this key Sunday, February 12 matchup with our free Manchester City vs. Aston Villa betting picks and predictions.
Man City vs Aston Villa best odds
Man City vs Aston Villa picks and predictions
This game has “City backlash” written all over it. The stakes are high in the title race and Pep Guardiola’s men missed a huge opportunity to close the gap on leaders Arsenal, who lost against Everton at the weekend. A curious team selection against Tottenham didn’t help, with Kevin De Bruyne among those left on the bench.
I expect a response from the defending champions on Sunday, with a likely return to the team’s tried-and-tested 4-3-3 formation. That would be good news for Erling Haaland, who barely had a sniff last weekend and missed the creative spark that De Bruyne brings to the team.
A Villa defense that collapsed against Leicester last weekend should be no match for City if they’re in the mood. Unai Emery’s side produced one of the more embarrassing defensive performances of the season, with the kind of self-inflicted errors that could prompt a shake-up at the back.
That should be music to City’s ears. While it’s easy to focus on the hosts’ lackluster performance at Tottenham, don’t forget that they ended January in style with a comfortable win over Wolves — thanks to a Haaland hat-trick — and a statement FA Cup victory against Arsenal.
But the City moneyline offers such short odds here that the value just isn’t there as a single bet, so I’ll be pairing it with BTTS to give it more juice. Villa have scored in all seven games since the post-World Cup restart and they could trouble a City defense that looks vulnerable without Ruben Dias, who was left on the bench last weekend.
My best bet: Manchester City to win + BTTS (+175 BetMGM)
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Man City vs Aston Villa side analysis
As you might expect, City are big favorites — they’re at home, with a major talent edge and a painful loss to shake off. After the week they’ve had, the defending champions really need to quiet some of the noise with an emphatic win here.
Villa will be no pushovers, though. They’ve won at Tottenham and Southampton in their last two away games — and, with the exception of the calamitous outing against Leicester, they’ve looked a steelier team since Emery took charge. Ollie Watkins and Emi Buendia have been at the heart of Villa’s best moments at the other end of the pitch, with Watkins finding the net in each of the last two games.
Keep in mind that the hosts have had the edge over Villa in recent years — a trend that should continue here. Prior to their 1-1 draw back in September, City had won the previous seven meetings. It also feels ominous for Villa that Haaland, sitting on 25 Premier League goals this season, has been shut out in his last two outings.
Man City vs Aston Villa Over/Under analysis
City’s firepower is no secret, even though Guardiola’s men haven’t clicked into top gear over the past few weeks with all the rest and rotation. If Villa defend like they did last time out, this scoreline could get out of hand in a hurry. Given the circumstances, I see City flying out of the traps and the odds for the hosts to lead at half-time and full-time are worth a look.
The numbers suggest we should get a bagful of goalscoring chances. Prior to the Tottenham game, City’s last three league games had each featured three or more goals — and I like the Over 2.5 goals here too, despite the short odds. The Haaland-De Bruyne connection should give Villa fits defensively, and Guardiola has a bench overflowing with talent to keep the attack fresh.
Even with World Cup winner Emi Martinez between the posts, Villa face an uphill battle on Sunday — but there are rays of hope in the pace of Watkins and Leon Bailey on the counter-attack. The visitors should have opportunities of their own at the Etihad Stadium.
Man City vs Aston Villa game info
| Location: | Etihad Stadium, Manchester, England |
| Date: | Sunday, February 12, 2023 |
| Time: | 11:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | USA Network |
Man City vs Aston Villa key injuries
Man City: John Stones CB (Out), Phil Foden FWR (Questionable)
Aston Villa: Diego Carlos CB (Out), Bertrand Traore ST (Questionable)
Man City vs Aston Villa recent form
| Teams | Last five matches |
|---|---|
 Man City |
L-W-W-W-L |
 Aston Villa |
W-W-L-W-L |
Man City vs Aston Villa weather
The forecast calls for partly cloudy conditions in Manchester on Sunday, with temperatures in the mid-40s at kick-off.
