Man City vs Real Madrid Picks and Predictions: More Offense Expected in Second Leg

If this year’s Champions League semifinal second-leg clash between Manchester City and Real Madrid comes anywhere near approaching the drama and excitement of what we got last year, soccer fans are in for a real treat. The two teams will take the pitch on Wednesday at the Etihad Stadium tied on aggregate, both knowing a victory for their side will send them into the final in Istanbul.

For Man City, Wednesday’s match gives them an opportunity to exact revenge for the heartbreak they suffered at the hands of Madrid a year ago. It also gives manager Pep Guardiola another opportunity to prove he can win the biggest trophy in Europe without Lionel Messi.

For Madrid, manager Carlo Ancelotti will be out to prove that he’s still one of the greatest managers in the world, and another Champions League crown could cement his place among the all-time legends.

Will Erling Haaland and Kevin de Bruyne see their hopes of just England’s second-ever treble become possible, or will Vinicius Junior and Karim Benzema lead Madrid to another final? We break down all the action in our Man City vs. Real Madrid free betting picks below. 

Man City vs Real Madrid best odds

Man City vs Real Madrid picks and predictions 

Picking the best bet from a match like this one can be tricky. These are two outstanding teams, and I could see this fixture going in a million different directions. Thankfully, the prop markets are offering us a solid wager that won’t involve trying to predict the winner. 

Thibaut Courtois is a big reason Real Madrid are still in this tie. His five saves were key to limiting City to just one goal, and there wasn’t much he could do about Kevin de Bruyne’s screamer from outside the box. However, many of his saves — and those made by Ederson at the other end — led to corner kicks. That’s our angle into this match’s betting market. 

The first leg featured a total of 15 corner kicks, with Real Madrid edging out City by a single attempt. The two sides combined to block 10 shots, which helped drive that number up, but given the way these two sides play, that’s to be expected — and it’s been a trend. 

The second leg between these two in last season’s semifinal saw 12 total corner kicks, only two of which came during the extra 30-minute period of play. And in the wide-open first leg a year ago, they combined for eight corners — but that’s because they weren’t as committed to denying shooting chances.

When Real Madrid visited Chelsea nursing a 2-0 aggregate lead in the quarterfinal a few weeks back, they allowed Chelsea to shoot from distance. They trusted in their defense to block shots, and for Courtois to block what got through. It led to the Blues attempting eight corners of the 10 in the match. 

In the first leg between City and Real Madrid, Man City attempted eight shots from 16 yards or more from goal, including seven from outside the box, many of which led to corners. Man City’s going to shoot early and often again on Wednesday, and Real Madrid are going to be desperate to stop anything from getting to their goal. 

That’s good news for our best bet, as City tends to earn a high number of corners from teams who can get in their way. Their match with Everton at the weekend saw 14 corners taken, marking the fourth consecutive match with at least nine attempted. 

For me, 10 is the floor on Wednesday with how end-to-end this match could be, and just like the first leg, I expect bodies to be flying to block shots. Bank on another double-digit corner outcome and enjoy what should be a scintillating affair. 

My best bet: Over 9.5 corners (-110 at DraftKings)

Man City vs Real Madrid side analysis

At a price of -165 or higher, Manchester City are heavily favored to win in regulation and advance to the final. Their price to qualify outright is upwards of -320 across the board, as few give Real Madrid a chance to overcome not taking a lead to the Etihad.

Part of that is driven by consistency — or a lack thereof. Man City have not lost a match since early February, going 22 unbeaten with 18 wins in all competitions during that span. Their only defeat at the Etihad this campaign was a stunning 2-1 loss to Brentford on the eve of the World Cup break.

This weekend, they defeated Everton 3-0 and can clinch the Premier League title with a win. However, Nathan Ake will likely continue to miss both matches with an injury.

Real Madrid have lacked that consistency, with three wins and two defeats in their last six including two straight away losses. The lone draw came in the 1-1 first leg, which they followed up with a 1-0 squeaker over Getafe this weekend.

While Madrid rotated in that match, the return of Ferland Mendy — who played the entire first half coming back from injury — was positive news. While he’s unlikely to start, his availability gives them another weapon off the bench. The return of Eder Militao provides a huge boost, as well. 

City are likely going to win this match, but you can’t count out Ancelotti and Madrid. They know how to win, they’ve got experience at every position, and they can hurt City on the counter-attack. Personally, I think the draw at +350 at BetRivers offers tremendous value, with City winning in extra time or penalties. 

Man City vs Real Madrid Over/Under analysis

The total for this match is more in the range of an even 3 rather than the typical 2.5, with the Over 2.5 heavily juiced. Some books have moved to a 3.5-goal total but sites like DraftKings will allow you to play the Asian 3.0 line. 

I’m on the Over 3 in this one, as it offers tremendous value at -110, especially when you consider a three-goal outing returns your wager. That’s because Man City’s last nine matches have all seen three or more goals — with City having scored at least three in all but one of those. Five of those matches featured 4+ goals.

Madrid’s matches haven’t been as high scoring, but they’ve scored multiple goals of their own in four of their last five away matches. Three of those saw them keep a clean sheet, which is highly unlikely here. And given neither can accept a defeat, a goal before halftime will likely lead to an open affair and plenty of goals.

The 1-1 draw in the first leg was the first time in the last five meetings these two didn’t combine for at least three goals, and this match a year ago ended in a 4-3 shootout. Take the 3-goal total and stay away from the juice. 

Man City vs Real Madrid game info

Man City vs Real Madrid key injuries

Man City: Nathan Ake D (Out).
Real Madrid: Ferland Mendy D (Probable), Eduardo Camavinga M (Probable). 

Man City vs Real Madrid weather

Sunny skies and dry conditions will be welcomed by fans and players alike. Temperatures will be in the mid-50s at kickoff, with no rain in the forecast and light winds. 

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