The first legs of the Champions League Round of 16 featured one utter domination and that came in Portugal, where Manchester City defeated Sporting Lisbon 5-0. The tie was effectively finished by halftime, at which point City were already up 4-0.
Now that sky blue juggernaut returns home and looks to balance what is a formality against Sporting with an increasingly tense title race domestically.
We'll break down the side and total for you, and dig up some Champions League betting value, in our free picks and predictions for Manchester City vs. Sporting Lisbon on March 9.
Manchester City vs Sporting Lisbon match odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Compare Champions League odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Manchester City vs Sporting Lisbon betting tips
- Prediction: Manchester City (-763)
- Prediction: Under 3.5 (-143)
- Best bet: Raheem Sterling anytime goal (+100)
Predictions made on 3/8/2022 at 5:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Manchester City vs Sporting Lisbon game info
• Location: Etihad Stadium, Manchester, England
• Date: Wednesday, March 9, 2022
• Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
• TV: Paramount+, DAZN
Manchester City vs Sporting Lisbon betting preview
Weather
Rain will finally arrive after a cloudy day in Manchester on Wednesday, with light showers forecast throughout the evening. Temperatures at kickoff are expected to be around 50 degrees Fahrenheit.
Injuries
Manchester City: Joao Cancelo LB (Questionable), Kyle Walker RB (Out), Ruben Dias CB (Out), Nathan Ake CB (Out).
Sporting Lisbon: Matheus Nunes CM (Out), Pedro Goncalves CM (Out), CM Palhinha (Out).
Manchester City vs Sporting Lisbon predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Side analysis
This tie is over. Manchester City exist in a different class to Sporting, can control a game better than any team in the world, and carry a 5-0 lead into their home stadium. We'd love to try and make a case for even a draw on the three-way moneyline but that simply isn't in the cards.
City are the betting favorites for both the Champions League and the Premier League. They have squad depth that is unrivaled in this competition, and in Pep Guardiola, they have a tactical edge in every single match. In 19 home games across competitions this season, City's record reads 16 wins, one draw, and two losses, with 62(!) goals scored compared to 17 conceded.
There isn't any mystery in picking a side and, frankly, there isn't exactly great value to be found on alternate lines, either, with City -1.5 at -205 and -2.5 paying +125. The former is no good, the latter is a little risky with the chance of City spending an hour or more tomorrow in a glorified rondo.
The total and a best bet leave us a chance to uncover some value and engage with this game more critically, so let's carry on.
Prediction: Manchester City (-763)
Over/Under analysis
We've got a high total of 3.5 on the board here after City put five past Sporting in the first leg. While the Over is sitting at plus money, it would be difficult to take it and back four goals or more.
City's five goals in Lisbon in the first leg came from just 1.8 expected goals and six shots on target, with a masterful performance highlighted by almost no errors in front of goal. Yet, it also highlights the way in which they took their foot off the gas over the final 45 minutes, with their 22 shot-creating actions well below their season-long average (29.46).
The full 90 in Manchester on Wednesday will look a lot like the final 45 in Lisbon, and that means passing, passing, and more passing from a City team happy to recycle possession and get past this fixture unharmed.
Prediction: Under 3.5 (-143)
Best bet
In what is a formality of a match, the goalscorer market is our best place to find value and that's where we go for our best bet here.
Between the gulf in class and the likelihood of considerable squad rotation, any number of Man City players could find themselves on the scoresheet on Wednesday. It's Raheem Sterling, however, who stands out as especially good value.
The England international was an unused sub over the weekend in the Manchester derby, so he'll be well-rested having last played at the end of February, and he's likely to start here. Sterling was excellent in the first leg, notching an assist before scoring the fifth and final goal.
Sterling has been excellent since November, with 12 goals in his previous 20 games for City. As he makes his first appearance in March, expect Sterling to find another goal in a strong run of form.
Pick: Raheem Sterling anytime goal (+100)
