The circus is back at Old Trafford on Thursday, as Manchester United host Chelsea in midweek Premier League betting action.
Man U, still in the hunt for Top 4 but fading rapidly, suffered a damaging loss over the weekend away to Arsenal and now must welcome Chelsea, who firmly remain third in the table at the tail-end of an up-and-down campaign. With time running out for Man United to gain ground on their Top 4 rivals, will they earn a crucial result at home?
Read on for our free Premier League picks and predictions for Manchester United vs. Chelsea, with kickoff on April 28.
Manchester United vs Chelsea match odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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Manchester United vs Chelsea betting tips
Predictions made on 4/27/2022 at 5:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Manchester United vs Chelsea game info
• Location: Old Trafford, Manchester, England
• Date: Thursday, April 28, 2022
• Time: 2:45 p.m. ET
• TV: USA Network
Manchester United vs Chelsea betting preview
Weather
It will be an overcast evening in Manchester but not too cold and no rain or wind in the forecast. Temperatures at kickoff are expected to be around 50 degrees Fahrenheit.
Injuries
Manchester United: Aaron Wan-Bissaka RB (Questionable), Luke Shaw LB (Out), Edinson Cavani ST (Out), Paul Pogba CM (Out), Fred CM (Out), Harry Maguire CB (Out), Jadon Sancho AM (Out).
Chelsea: Andreas Christensen CB (Questionable), Reece James RWB (Questionable), Antonio Rudiger CB (Questionable), Ben Chilwell LWB (Out), Mateo Kovacic CM (Out), Callum Hudson-Odoi AM (Out).
Manchester United vs Chelsea predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Side analysis
No, Manchester United will not get a crucial result. They certainly cannot be trusted to do so, especially with their collective backs against the wall. This Manchester United team is weak, with a genuine lack of spirit and togetherness. The possibility of another year outside of the Champions League won't cause them to stir, not with such major changes looming in the summer.
Not helping matters: Chelsea are damn good, despite recent blips, and are roundly better than Man United.
Chelsea's attack creates chances at a strong rate — their 24.47 shot-creating actions per 90 are third-best in the Prem — and are capable of explosive performances. We saw it in a thrilling but ultimately failed comeback attempt against Real Madrid and then against Southampton, in a 6-0 win. Kai Havertz is enjoying a better second half to the season playing up top and has helped Chelsea to the third-best marks in goals scored (67) and expected goals (56.1).
Man United, on the other hand, have too often relied on Cristiano Ronaldo's heroics to salvage any sort of a goalscoring threat this year. As is the case in the table, Man U are well off the Top 4 in most attacking metrics, sitting fifth in shot-creating actions (23.03), goals (53), and xG (51.0). However, it's at the other end of the pitch where it has too often come undone for the Red Devils this season — and where the largest difference between these two sides exists.
Man U have often been shocking defensively, with their 51 goals conceded the seventh-most in the Prem. That has come from an xGA of 48.0, also seventh-most, which says there's hardly been bad luck involved. In fact, they've allowed so many chances that their goalkeeping has been the second-most valuable in the Prem per post-shot xG minus goals allowed, which suggests they could have conceded between 7-8 goals more than they have.
That stands in contrast to Chelsea, whose defensive metrics are bettered by just Man City and Liverpool across the board. That holds true for almost everything about Chelsea this season, as a well-coached side who are dangerous in attack, deep at every level of the pitch, and very difficult to break down in defense. And all of that stands in contrast to Manchester United, who are a team of individuals without instruction nor care. Thursday's result will be as you would expect.
Prediction: Chelsea (+115 at bet365)
Over/Under analysis
Any game in which Chelsea are involved, despite a few recent explosive matches, should have one leaning toward the Under on a goal total of 2.5. This one is no different.
Under Thomas Tuchel, Chelsea have been among the most rigidly defensive teams in the Premier League with just 27 goals conceded this season (third-fewest) despite injuries at both wing-back positions as well as in his three-man defensive line. Impressively, they've only allowed nine of 27 goals away from Stamford Bridge, with both their goals allowed and expected goals against (13.9) away from home second to just City.
If Chelsea are to win, then we should expect them to remain in complete control of the game, limit Man United's chances, and convert the few high-quality chances they create for themselves. In the eight games Chelsea have either won or drawn against other teams in the Top 8 this season, there has been an average of 2.0 total goals with only two of eight going Over that average.
Chelsea will win Thursday, and they'll do it in the fashion that has marked them all season.
Prediction: Under 2.5 (+100 at bet365)
Best bet
As outlined in the side analysis, there's good reason to believe Chelsea will be victorious at Old Trafford on Thursday. And to get Chelsea against this dying star of a Man U team at plus-money makes it our best bet, too.
In addition to everything we've already highlighted between the two teams, it's worth noting Chelsea's fantastic form on the road compared to Man United's form at home.
Only Man City have a better points per game as the away side than Chelsea this year, with the Blues averaging 2.25 off an outstanding record of 11 wins, three draws, and two losses. Man United, meanwhile, have hardly been exceptional at Old Trafford this season. Their per-game return of 1.82 points is fairly in line with their season-long average, with City and Liverpool already having come into Old Trafford and winning.
Chelsea are better than Man United, never blink as the away side, and go into a crumbling fortress on Thursday. Back them to head back to London with three points.
Pick: Chelsea (+115 at bet365)
