Mexico vs USA World Cup Qualifying Picks and Predictions: USMNT Tickets Aren't Punched Yet

CONCACAF World Cup qualifying is in its last chapter, with just three games separating teams from the World Cup in Qatar — or the disappointment of missing out. 

Both Mexico and the USMNT have positioned themselves well ahead of the last international window in qualifying, with the two in second and third, tied on 21 points after 11 games. The four-point gap they have to fourth-place Panama is crucial, as the Top 3 teams get automatic berths in Qatar while fourth place heads to the inter-continental playoff. 

Here are our free soccer betting picks and predictions for Mexico vs. USA, with kickoff on March 24. 

Mexico vs USA game info

• Location: Estadio Azteca, Mexico City, Mexico
• Date: Thursday, March 24, 2022
• Time: 10:00 p.m. ET
• TV: CBS, Paramount+

Mexico vs USA betting tips

• Prediction: Mexico (-110)
• Prediction: Under 2.5 (-170)
• Best bet: Mexico (-110)

Click on each pick for complete analysis

Mexico vs USA match odds

Mexico: -110
USA: +285
Draw: +245

Total: 2.5
Over: +130
Under: -170

Mexico vs USA betting preview

Weather

Warm conditions are expected in the altitude of Estadio Azteca on Thursday evening, with temperatures a hot and heavy 70 degrees Fahrenheit with 35% humidity expected.

Injuries

Mexico: None.
USA: None.

Mexico vs USA predictions

Side analysis

The United States have positioned themselves well to return to the World Cup, after failing to qualify in 2018. It isn't, however, all rainbows ahead of the first game of the window. The points haul the USMNT need to punch their ticket is far from a sure thing, with grueling trips to Mexico and Costa Rica on either side of a home date against Panama — the team in fourth currently at the U.S. and Mexico's heels. 

The squad took a few hits ahead of a crucial window, too. They'll be missing Weston McKennie, a vital part of the U.S.'s midfield three, after he suffered an ankle injury for Juventus in the Champions League. Worse still, McKennie was playing the best soccer of his career — or at least since leaving Schalke — when he got hurt.

McKennie is absolutely crucial to the USMNT's ball progression and provides a cutting edge going forward that they desperately need. During qualifying, he ranks second on the U.S. in expected goals, chances created, and both touches in and passes into the penalty area. Through 11 games, the USMNT have taken a full point more per game with McKennie (2.3) than without (1.3).

McKennie will be joined on the sidelines by Brenden Aaronson, after the winger pulled out of international duty with a knee injury. While the RB Leipzig attacker's counting stats haven't popped for country, he has become a stalwart of this U.S. team with seven starts and four substitute appearances in 11 qualifiers.  

The missing players compound an already glaring issue for the States, who have spent qualifying creating chances and possessing the ball at a massive rate while creating very little of actual threat. Their quality has been enough to overcome that issue against CONCACAF's weaker teams and at home, but in Mexico City, at the Azteca, against Mexico? That's an entirely different animal and really, an animal that resides atop the food chain in the region. 

Mexico have more going forward than the U.S., even with Christian Pulisic re-finding his footing after a slow start to the season. Raul Jimenez is CONCACAF's best No. 9 (though Jonathan David's argument is increasingly strong) and he's flanked by Chucky Lozana, a brilliantly creative winger for Napoli, and Tecatito, who has started life at Sevilla well. 

While the midfield battle is one the U.S. won with consistency in their three meetings with Mexico last season — and one they would have liked their chances in again with Andres Guardado injured — losing McKennie throws that out the window. There is simply no U.S. midfielder who can replicate all that McKennie does from a movement standpoint, especially with Tyler Adams tasked with shielding the backline.  

At full health and at a neutral venue (or in the States) we would like the USMNT to get a result in this matchup, as they did in three consecutive meetings in 2021. However, neither of those factors can be counted on here. It's an undermanned U.S. team headed into an impossibly difficult atmosphere. 

Prediction: Mexico (-110)

Over/Under analysis

The 2.5 goal total in this one is -170 to the Under and rightfully so. For starters, there should be little expectation of the U.S. scoring.

McKennie and Aaronson's absences will hurt their ball progression considerably. While USMNT fans are no doubt pleased Gyasi Zardes was left out of the squad, his absence leaves them without any great option as far as hold up play at striker, in a game in which they'll likely be defending fairly deep. Pulisic is good, not great, at advancing the ball but otherwise, the U.S. may find it difficult to get out of their own half on a consistent basis. 

For Mexico's part, they haven't exactly been a freewheeling attack, either. Outside of games against Honduras, Jamaica, and El Salvador — who make up the bottom three places in qualifying after losing 20 of 33 combined games — Mexico have scored five goals across seven matches, never scoring multiple goals against the rest of the field.

We can expect more low-scoring and cagey games the rest of the way for Mexico, including at the Azteca on Thursday. 

Prediction: Under 2.5 (-170)

Best bet

It was a banner year for the USA in their rivalry with Mexico, winning all three competitive games, but all three came on home soil. To go away to Mexico City and repeat that feat is something completely different, and something we have rarely seen.

Mexico, on balance, are superior to this USMNT. However, on balance doesn't need to be considered here because all things aren't equal in this matchup — Mexico have bordered on unbeatable at the Azteca in qualifying. Since the stadium opened in 1966, Mexico have won 43 of 55 World Cup qualifiers in the high altitude of Mexico City, drawing 10, and losing just twice. The U.S.'s record against their rivals there reflect Mexico's dominance, with three draws and 12 losses all they have to show. 

El Tri are superior to the USMNT on paper and now welcome their hated rivals into the region's most intense cauldron with revenge on their mind. 

Pick: Mexico (-110)

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