Napoli vs AC Milan Picks and Predictions: Both Sides Succeed in Scoring

After AC Milan defeated Napoli 1-0 in their first leg a week ago, the Champions League tie between the two sides sits on a knife’s edge. Now the two teams will square off in Naples on Tuesday to determine who reaches the semifinals of Europe’s biggest club competition — just as the hosts return to full strength.

The second leg will see star striker Victor Osimhen return to the starting lineup for the hosts after being out with an injury. His absence has been felt on the attacking end and could swing things in favor of Napoli. Meanwhile, Milan will be hoping to recreate the exact same scenario as their Round of 16 tie with Tottenham, by following up a 1-0 win with a scoreless draw.

There’s lots of drama and subplots surrounding this all-Italian matchup, and we break it all down from a betting angle in my Napoli vs. AC Milan picks and predictions for Tuesday, April 18. 

Napoli vs AC Milan best odds

Napoli vs AC Milan picks and predictions

Napoli and Milan fully rotated their squads at the weekend in anticipation of a very contentious, difficult confrontation. They both came away with draws, as Napoli shared the spoils in a scoreless match against Verona and Milan came back to level things at Bologna. 

As the Rossoneri have been doing lately, they finished the match scoring far fewer goals than expected, with just one goal despite 1.45 xG. But with every outfield player rotated, Milan still showed they’re capable of creating chances.

Now they will face a Napoli side missing two key players in defense. Andre-Frank Zambo Anguissa was sent off in the first leg and will miss the match. So will star central defender Kim Min-jae, whose late yellow card sees him missing out. That’s a big problem for a defense that conceded four goals at home to this very Milan team just two weeks ago.

As for the Rossoneri, they will consider themselves lucky to have kept a clean sheet in the first leg. Napoli registered 1.34 xG in large part due to an early chance for Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, whose first-minute attempt was cleared off the line from five yards out. They nearly scored minutes later when Mike Maignan denied Petr Zielinski’s long-range effort with a brilliant save.

The return of Osimhen — who returned for a quarter-hour in the Verona draw and hit the woodwork — will add even more potency to Napoli’s outstanding attack and should help end their two-match run without a goal.

A Napoli goal will mean that Milan must come forward and find one of their own to avoid extra time. Given the loss of two of their three key defenders, Napoli will be vulnerable to Brahim Diaz and Rafael Leao on the counter-attack.

There are a lot of prop bets that I like for this match, but the best bet is to keep it simple and play both teams to score. The line is evenly balanced on both sides, and while only one of the last six meetings between these two teams has featured goals from each team, four of the previous six at Stadio Maradona have seen both teams score.

Given the stakes and the return of one of the best strikers in Europe, it’s hard to see either team keeping a clean sheet.  

My best bet: Both teams to score (-110 at bet365)

Napoli vs AC Milan side analysis

Napoli are strong favorites at home, with a 3-way money line price ranging from -130 to -150 across the board. The return of Osimhen has swung the lines since they opened, buoyed by the fact Napoli have lost just three times all season at home and have won 15 of 20 in all competitions. Giovanni Simeone will miss out but wasn’t expected to start, while Anguissa and Kim are suspended. 

Milan have won just two of their last eight matches in all competitions — and ironically enough, they’ve both come against Napoli. Their result on the weekend can be tossed out given the rotation, but it was their fourth draw in seven matches. That said, a draw would suffice on Tuesday, as it would see them through. Stefano Pioli will have his full side available minus Zlatan Ibrahimovic. 

I wouldn’t be surprised to see a Napoli win, but I think Milan still advances. If Milan lose by one goal, then extra time would be needed. Should it go to penalties, Milan would have the advantage with Maignan in goal.

As talented as Osimhen is, he’s never actually scored in two matches against the Rossoneri. But the combination of him and Kvaradona will certainly test Milan’s defensive ability. 

One fun parlay to consider is for Napoli to win and Milan to advance. It currently pays out +680 at FanDuel and given the possibility of such an occurrence, that’s solid value. That said, Milan have won their last three matches at Stadio Maradona, and it’s not out of the question for them to advance within regulation.

Napoli vs AC Milan Over/Under analysis

The books also believe this will be a tight, low-scoring affair as the Under is currently favored around -120 across the board. Despite Osimhen’s return, Milan’s defense has proven itself to be stout and has kept two clean sheets in two weeks against the Neopolitanos. 

Maignan has been an absolute rock at the back, and Bologna’s first-minute goal was one he could do nothing about. It ended a run of five straight clean sheets for club and country. Meanwhile, Napoli haven’t conceded in four of their last six at home and have kept four clean sheets in nine Champions League matches.

This is a match where I’m not going to touch the total until I see how the teams come out. Napoli could be a bit cautious given the lack of key pieces in defense, and if that’s the case it could lead to a very cagey first half.

However, they could come out looking to put pressure on Milan the way they did in the first leg, and leave themselves exposed on the break. If that’s the case, I will jump on the Over early. Either way, I’d recommend waiting to see how things play out in the first five or ten minutes. 

Napoli vs AC Milan game info

Napoli vs AC Milan key injuries

Napoli: Kim Min-jae D (Out), Andre-Frank Zambo Anguissa M (Out), Giovanni Simeone F (Out).
AC Milan: Zlatan Ibrahimovic F (Out). 

Napoli vs AC Milan weather

Rain very well may play a factor in the match, as well. Naples is expecting heavy rain and possible flooding conditions during the day, with the city under a “yellow warning” all day ending right around kickoff. Temps will be in the mid 50s, but winds should be very light. 

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