Newcastle vs Aston Villa Picks and Predictions: Visiting Villains Give Magpies Fits

The biggest game on Saturday’s Premier League slate is Newcastle vs Aston Villa. It’s the final game on an exciting day of EPL odds action, and it features last year’s fourth-placed Newcastle against an Aston Villa team that finished seventh.

Eddie Howe and Unai Emery were two of the Premier League’s best managers last year, and this will be a fascinating meeting. Don’t miss our Newcastle vs Aston Villa free picks and predictions for Saturday, August 12.

Newcastle vs Aston Villa best odds

Newcastle vs Aston Villa picks and predictions

If there were two teams who really went above and beyond expectations last season, it was Newcastle and Aston Villa. Now the two are meeting in their opening Premier League game on Saturday.

The two sides even met recently, with their preseason game in Pennsylvania at the end of July finishing at a 3-3 draw. When you look at what both teams achieved last season, you can make an argument that either team will win. But for me, I can’t stop looking at the +380 available on an Aston Villa win, and that has to be my best bet.

It’s been a long time since Villa last won a game at St James’ Park, all the way back in 2005. But this is a different team — a far more confident and incredibly well-coached team — and I believe that they have the ability to take the three points back to the Midlands.

Newcastle deservedly finished fourth last season, but I can’t help but think that they exceeded expectations and were helped by the likes of Chelsea and Liverpool having hugely disappointing seasons. The additions of Harvey Barnes and Sandro Tonali strengthen the team, but I’m not certain if either of them are going to take the club to the next dimension.

I can’t the same of Aston Villa’s transfer business. So far they’ve added Youri Tielemans, Pau Torres, and Moussa Diaby (a club record signing) to the squad at Villa Park. Tielemans is an experienced Premier League midfielder who can challenge for a starting spot immediately, but it’s Torres and Diaby who are truly exciting. 

Torres is a left-footed central defender who is exceptional on the ball and will really help improve Aston Villa’s transitioning the ball from the back. Then there is Diaby, still just 24, and he can play anywhere across the front line. Last season, he scored a Bundesliga goal roughly every three games for Bayer Leverkusen. 

He was linked with European giants, and it’s a coup that he’s ended up at Villa. Diaby is a player who can instantly make an impact.

Aston Villa finished the season so brilliantly, having been fantastic since Unai Emery arrived, that I think they really stand a good chance of winning this one. The +380 odds imply just a 20.8% chance that they win this game, when in reality I’d argue that should be somewhere around 40%, so we’ll be taking the value here.

This is far more of a pick’em than the sportsbooks seem to think, and given that Aston Villa won their last Premier League meeting (albeit at home, 3-0), it gives me great optimism that Emery’s Villains can start as they finished last season and take home the three points.

My best bet: Aston Villa moneyline (+380 at FanDuel)

Newcastle vs Aston Villa same-game parlay

Aston Villa moneyline

Sandro Tonali to be booked

Ollie Watkins to score anytime

+2,200 at bet365

Thanks to our best bet already having fairly high odds, it means that our three-legged Same Game Parlay has really juicy odds of +2200, which I absolutely love and I’ve already placed the bet myself.

First up, and for the reasons above, we’re backing Aston Villa to win. I think at the prices available, they offer really good value.

Then we’re looking at the cards market, and in particular Newcastle’s new signing Sando Tonali. 

Tonali, a magnificent midfielder who arrived from AC Milan, is ripe to get a card in this game. He plays in central midfield, a position that we often see getting booked due to the combative nature of the role. 

He picked up seven yellows in 34 games for AC Milan in Serie A last year, but this isn’t his native Italy. It’s the Premier League, and it’s quicker and more intense than Serie A. 

Tonali will be able to handle that eventually, but I’m expecting him to struggle with the physicality and athleticism of the Premier League for the first month. I can certainly see him struggling against Villa’s intensity in midfield on Saturday.

Our final bet is for Aston Villa’s 27-year old striker Ollie Watkins to score. 

Last season was a real breakout for Watkins, as he scored 15 goals in 37 Premier League games. In truth, it feels like his brilliance was often missed because of the incredible goalscoring of Erling Haaland and Harry Kane, but what Watkins achieved was special. Emery put his trust in the England man, selling Danny Ings, and that faith was repaid. 

I’m expecting another big season from Watkins, and if Villa win this game, you’d have to imagine that Watkins has found the scoresheet.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Newcastle vs Aston Villa spread and Over/Under analysis

As I wrote above, I can see an argument for any of the three results on the moneyline here. Newcastle were great last season, and some might want to grab that -130, but it’s too short for me. The draw at +290 could be value given that the two teams tied in their preseason meeting. 

However, as my best bet shows, I absolutely love Aston Villa at +380. It’s a giant price, and one that has to be considered here.

The total market is another that I feel offers big value with Over 2.5 goals at -120 and Under 2.5 goals at +105. I’m instantly smashing the Under here. 

After all, these are two great defensive teams who both showed last season that they’re very hard to score against and are both incredibly well-organized. 

Newcastle vs Aston Villa game info

Newcastle vs Aston Villa key injuries

Newcastle: Javier Manquillo LB (Out), Emil Krafth RB (Out), Fabian Schar CB (Questionable), Joe Willocks CM (Questionable)
Aston Villa: Emiliano Buendia CAM (Out), Leander Dendoncker DM (Out), Alex Moreno LB (Out), Jacob Ramsey CM (Out), Bertrand Traore FWR (Out)

Newcastle vs Aston Villa recent form

Teams	Last five matches
Newcastle	N/A
Aston Villa	N/A

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