Wednesday’s Newcastle vs. Dortmund game is potentially the pick of that day’s Champions League games with this Group F clash being able to define the group.
Newcastle come into this top of the group having beaten PSG in their last game, while Dortmund are bottom on points. If Newcastle win then it moves them into a great position in terms of reaching the knockout stages of the Champions League group and it would give Dortmund a nearly impossible task to escape the group.
Group F is the group of death but who will come out on top of what is a hugely important game for both teams? Don’t miss our Champions League picks and predictions for Newcastle United vs. Borussia Dortmund on Wednesday, October 25
Newcastle vs Borussia Dortmund best odds
Newcastle vs Borussia Dortmund picks and predictions
Wednesday serves us up another big game from this season’s Champions League ‘group of death’ between Newcastle and Dortmund. When Newcastle drew Dortmund, PSG, and Milan it was widely dubbed as the toughest possible group in the competition and it’s arguably the most difficult in a number of years. However, we are 33% through the group stage and Newcastle sits top of Group F following that incredible win over PSG last time out. Dortmund sit at the bottom with their only point coming from a 0-0 tie with Milan, while PSG and Milan are sandwiched between the two.
Heading into this game on Wednesday it already feels like a must-win for Dortmund. If they are on just the one point after three games then it would be nearly impossible for them to qualify for the knockout rounds, and a win for Newcastle would give them serious belief in qualification. When it comes to predicting the game itself I think Newcastle as -149 favorites is probably too short, so I’m focusing my eyes elsewhere and my best bet is +115 for Under 2.5 goals.
Over 2.5 goals is listed at -143 which I feel is a hugely short price given what we’ve seen so far from both teams. Yes, Newcastle did demolish PSG 4-1 and it was well-deserved and hugely impressive but I feel that PSG’s style played into the hands of Newcastle and I can’t see this game going like that. Newcastle’s other game was a 0-0 draw in Milan, and both of Dortmund’s two games so far have had Under 2.5 goals. They lost 2-0 to PSG in their UCL opener and drew 0-0 with Milan at the start of October.
Four of Dortmund’s last six games in all competitions have had Under 2.5 goals including a dominant 1-0 win over Werder Bremen last week. Dortmund struggled to adapt to life without Jude Bellingham to start the season but it’s worth noting that they are one of just three unbeaten teams in the Bundesliga. Part of that success has been built on a strong backline and they’ve only given up eight goals in eight Bundesliga games.
A strong defense is something that Dortmund share with Newcastle, who have only given up a goal per game in the Premier League. Nobody has scored more goals than Newcastle’s 24 goals but that is heavily skewed by the 8-0 win over Sheffield United. They also had two other big wins 4-0 over Crystal Palace and 5-1 over Aston Villa, and besides that have generally had lower-scoring games.
Both teams are fairly healthy, with Newcastle just missing Joe Willock, Harvey Barnes and Youssoufa Moukoko for Dortmund. This result matters so much for both teams that I expect this to be a cagey one, with both teams starting slow and looking to keep things tight and then using the second half to go on and score.
The bookies see this as being high-scoring but I think that the recent form of both teams, plus the sheer importance of the game, means that Under 2.5 goals is the value wager here.
My best bet: Under 2.5 goals (+115 at TonyBet)
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Newcastle vs Borussia Dortmund same-game parlay
Under 3 goals
First Half result: Draw
Double Chance: Draw/Dortmund
I have a +450 Same-Game Parlay for you to get stuck into for Newcastle vs Dortmund.
We always start with our best bet for the game and we’re going to do it here too, with Under three goals as the first leg. The reasoning is above but I’m expecting this game to be cagier than people think. Newcastle have been very good at taking advantage of teams attacking this year, but I feel like Dortmund will be more careful, at least to start the game, which will limit the chances for a high-scoring match.
Then we’ll be backing the halftime result to be a draw. Both of Dortmund’s Champions League games have been 0-0 at halftime, and so has one of Newcastle’s two games too. Four of Dortmund’s past six games in all competitions have been level at halftime.
The final leg of the Same-Game Parlay will be for the game to finish as a draw or a Dortmund win. My reasoning here is that the markets are overrating Newcastle based on that incredible result against PSG. After all, this is a team who have lost three of nine Premier League games this season. It also undervalues a Dortmund team who are unbeaten in the Bundesliga and who won’t be as easy to beat as the odds suggest.
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Newcastle vs Borussia Dortmund side and Over/Under analysis
I totally understand anyone wanting to back Newcastle after their impressive victory over PSG last time out but at odds of -149 I feel like it’s slightly underestimating the potential of this Dortmund team. You can get +370 on Dortmund or +310 on the draw, and although I can’t be certain on either of those I think the +120 on the double chance is a smart way of tackling the game. Dortmund may only have one point in two Champions League games so far but they’ve been much improved domestically after a bad start to the season and I think they’re being undervalued here.
In terms of total goals, you’ll know from my best bet how I think it will go. The bookies are expecting a high-scoring one with Over 2.5 goals at -143 and Under 2.5 goals the least likely at +115. After the PSG game, I understand why some might expect goals but personally, I’d take the Under here, I think it probably offers slightly better value for money.
Newcastle vs Borussia Dortmund game info
| Location: | St James' Park, Newcastle upon Tyne, England |
| Date: | Wednesday, October 25, 2023 |
| Time: | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Paramount+ |
| Weather: | Heavy rain with temps under 50F. |
Newcastle vs Borussia Dortmund key injuries
Newcastle: Joe Willock CM (Out), Harvey Barnes MID (Out), Sandro Tonali CM (Questionable), Sven Botman CB (Questionable)
Borussia Dortmund: Youssoufa Moukoko STR (Out), Thomas Meunier RB (Questionable)
