Newcastle vs Liverpool Picks and Predictions: Salah Makes His Presence Felt at St. James' Park

A thriving club with dogged relentlessness on the pitch and deafening support off of it comes up against a historically proud club stuck in the mud on Saturday.

Yet, in a reversal of most of the last 20 years, it's Newcastle United who can be described as the former, while it's struggling Liverpool as the latter. 

Though Saturday's visitors enjoyed the high point of their season on Monday, in the Merseyside derby, a trip to the Northeast and St. James' Park is a much different proposition — even with recent middling showings from Eddie Howe's side.

Ahead of Saturday's late kickoff, check out our free picks and predictions for Newcastle United vs. Liverpool.

Newcastle vs Liverpool best odds

Newcastle vs Liverpool picks and predictions

Admittedly, this statement is made possible by the lofty standards he has set over the last five years, but it still rings true: Mohamed Salah has been a shell of himself for a year.

Liverpool's Egyptian King returned from the African Cup of Nations defeated — literally, losing in the finals — but also, seemingly, mentally. Even while Liverpool marched to the precipice of a quadruple, it was Sadio Mane and Luis Diaz, not Salah, serving as the driving force. 

Salah looked like an exhausted player, and understandably so after the absurd number of games he's had to play in recent years. However, the summer didn't seem to serve as a refresher.

As Liverpool flounders, Salah is amid his worst season Merseyside. Per 90 minutes, he's averaging by far his fewest goals (0.39), goals + assists (0.58), and expected goals + assists (0.66) for Liverpool.

That's why — aside from it coming against Everton — Salah's performance on Monday had to have been so encouraging. Not only did Salah score, finishing off a breathtaking counter, but he looked like, well, Salah.  

His 0.8 xG was his fourth-highest single-match total in the league this season, while his five shot-creating actions was the third most he has totaled. We can attribute some of that to Everton's shambles but Salah's eight progress carries, seven attempted take-ons, and three successful take-ons — all season highs for him — tell us more decisively: Salah is up for it. 

Too often a peripheral figure this season, Salah once again put his imprint on a game. Headed into a brutally tough fixture, Salah can again display the impact we've come to expect.

Cracks in Newcastle's once impenetrable defense are beginning to show. After last conceding in the league on November 6, they've allowed goals in consecutive games. Even more worrying, they've come in a similar fashion, with corner kicks making it through to the back post and too easily turned in. 

Despite Newcastle's previous two games coming against two of the league's least-potent attacks, in Bournemouth and West Ham, 15% of their goals allowed and 12% of their xGA have come in the last two weeks. 

As a whole, they are more susceptible than ever at the moment. On an individual level, no one is more so than Dan Burn who — while writing himself into Newcastle lore already this season — has been playing out of position at left-back. The towering 6-foot-6 central-turned-outside defender has performed well but has struggled in recent games, with fatigue rearing its head across the squad.

Burn was attributed with his first error (mistake leading to a shot) of the season last weekend and, after averaging 2.15 tackles + interceptions through the first 21 matches, he's totaled just three across the last two matches. Already not well suited to playing in space and defending 1-on-1, Burn now has to deal with a resurgent Mo Salah.

Liverpool's talisman is going to play with confidence, take Burn on, and get into incredibly dangerous positions. Provided Liverpool don't wilt, as they have previously this year, in such a raucous environment, Salah will play a part in a goal. 

My best bet: Mohamed Salah to score or record an assist (+100 at FanDuel)

Newcastle vs Liverpool side analysis

I do not have any play on a side here. Between the respective odds and the teams' forms, I have no interest in wading in.

Newcastle are playing the worst soccer of their season and have looked wildly dull without Bruno Guimaraes, who will serve the last of a three-match ban here. At +150 to win or -225 for a double chance, neither appeals to me. Not with the way Newcastle have played lately, not without Bruno in the middle, and not with the biggest match in 24 years looming next weekend.

From a Liverpool perspective, they remain an unimposing side. It's wild to say, of a Jurgen Klopp team, but it's true. To even call this year's Liverpool a shadow of themselves would be generous. There's no fight. I wouldn't back them to win at St. James' Park and at -200 for the double chance, it doesn't appeal to me, either.  

If one feels inclined to play a side, I would look to a draw with both teams to score (+333 at bet365) but I don't have a strong lean here.

Newcastle vs Liverpool Over/Under analysis

Even in Newcastle's recent regression at the back, they're 2-0 to the Under with a pair of 1-1 draws. Going forward, without Guimaraes and with Callum Wilson out of form, they aren't going to pose a huge threat to Liverpool.

Similarly, while Newcastle's defense has been breached in consecutive games, they're hardly shambolic and just skating by. Salah may be refinding his footing but Darwin Nunez is a wild card as likely to find the upper reaches of the stadium as he is the back of the net from 12 yards out, and Cody Gakpo has done little. 

I wouldn't back Liverpool to score multiple goals either, certainly not in the fortress that is St. James' Park.

Newcastle vs Liverpool game info

Newcastle vs Liverpool key injuries

Newcastle: Bruno Guimaraes CM (Out), Joe Willock CM (Doubtful), Javier Manquillo RB (Out), Emil Krafth RB (Out), Matt Targett LB (Out).
Liverpool: Ibrahima Konate CB (Out), Luis Diaz LW (Out), Thiago CM (Out).

Newcastle vs Liverpool recent form

Teams	Last five matches
Newcastle	D-D-D-W-D
Liverpool	W-L-D-L-L

Newcastle vs Liverpool weather

A rainy day Tyneside will continue through the evening, with an 80% chance of rain at kickoff. Temperatures in the evening, meanwhile, are expected to be around 45 degrees Fahrenheit.

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