Tuesday sees the return of the Champions League with the Round of 16. Tuesday’s biggest game is undoubtedly PSG vs. Real Madrid, in which new money meets old money, with the PSG welcoming the most successful team in Champions League history to the Parc des Princes.
Who will get the advantage in this, the first leg of this huge clash? Don’t miss our PSG vs. Real Madrid tips and predictions.
PSG vs Real Madrid match odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Compare Champions League odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
PSG vs Real Madrid betting tips
Predictions made on 2/14/2022 at 5:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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PSG vs Real Madrid game info
• Location: Parc des Princes, Paris, France
• Date: Tuesday, February 15, 2022
• Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
• TV: DAZN, FuboTV, Paramount+
PSG vs Real Madrid betting preview
Weather
The game kicks off at 9:00 p.m. local time and temperatures in the French capital will be 50 degrees. Rain is likely to start two or three hours before kickoff and continue throughout the game.
Injuries
PSG: Sergio Ramos (Out), Ander Herrera (Questionable).
Real Madrid: Mariano Diaz (Questionable), Karim Benzema (Questionable), Ferland Mendy (Questionable).
PSG vs Real Madrid predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Side analysis
The Champions League returns on Tuesday with the knockout stages starting and we’re being served up a mouth-watering tie to start. Paris Saint-Germain welcome Real Madrid to the Parc des Princes in a battle of flash, Jordan clad, new money versus old money, a European giant in Los Blancos.
There are a million different narratives tied up within this matchup with each just as tantalizing as the last. Both teams sit top of their respective national leagues, PSG are 13 points clear in Ligue 1 and look unlikely to be thwarted. Real Madrid only sits four points clear of Sevilla but given their pedigree they are favorites with the sportsbooks.
On Tuesday, these two meet with the Parisian’s -105 favorites. It’s understandable why they’re so short as they’ve got a brilliant record at home this season. They’ve won all but two of their 16 games on home turf and they’ve not stayed Under 2.5 Goals (+120) conceded a goal at home in the past two months.
Meanwhile, Real Madrid comes into this game having won only one of their past four games. A loss to Athletic Club in the Copa del Rey and two draws in the league aren’t great preparation to face one of Europe’s best teams but with Karim Benzema expected to return to the starting lineup there is hope that can perform well.
The shadow of Kylian Mbappe looks large over this fixture. The future of the 23-year old is the elephant in the room with the forward a long-term target of Real Madrid, a club that he himself supported as a child. Mbappe’s contract expires this summer and he’s yet to sign a new one despite the club’s attempt to retain their superstar. With 90 goals for PSG in 102 games and 24 in 53 for France, both clubs believe that Mbappe is the key to their future and he, even more so than teammates Lionel Messi and Neymar, will be the center of attention come kick-off.
Mbappe drew criticism for an underwhelming Euro 2020 but since returning to his club, he’s been inspired and has been turning in the performance that is expected of him. He has every possibility of being the difference-maker in this game.
The Frenchman wouldn’t be the first player to move between the clubs with PSG’s Keylor Navas, Achraf Hakimi, and Sergio Ramos all formerly of Real. Sadly, Ramos will be missing this first leg but it’s still another juicy thread to the narrative around this game.
When it comes to the game, it really could go either way. We know how Mauricio Pochettino will set his team up, they’ll play a 4-3-3, mirroring that played by Real, and he’ll rely on the aforementioned Hakimi and Nuno Mendes to supply width to their attacks from the fullback position. PSG’s attacks will build up through Marco Verratti, who’ll then supply PSG’s famous front three of Mbappe, Messi, and Neymar. Neymar is expected to return to the team for the first time since being injured in November, he’s rarely been able to stay fit in recent years and there must now be doubts over whether he’ll ever be the best player in the world, something which felt inevitable once upon a time. That mantle has long been held by Lionel Messi, a long-time foe of Real Madrid, but the Messi we see now isn’t the one we remember from so many glorious nights in Barcelona. He’s still capable of magic, so Real will need to be careful.
Madrid too has aging stars, their midfield trio of Luka Modric, Toni Kroos, and Casemiro have conquered Europe many times but are starting to show their age. The return of Benzema will be key for Real though, he’s been incredible in recent years and is the current face of the team, alongside the young Brazilian Vinicius Junior, who has really improved and is on the cusp of becoming a global star.
When these two teams meet, it really could go either way. PSG might have a front three that sets FIFA players' hearts racing but that attack needs to do their share of defensive work. Real, meanwhile, can rely on experience and know-how and can’t be underestimated. These teams are a lot closer than the odds suggest and given those odds, I wouldn’t back PSG. The draw leaps out as a potentially large price for two teams who won’t want to lose this first leg.
Prediction: Draw (+275)
Over/Under analysis
The Over is the favorite for Tuesday’s game which is understandable given the attacking talent on show but we’ll be taking an alternate approach and backing Under 2.5 goals. Real’s past three games have only seen a combined two goals.
When PSG shows up they really show up but despite winning 5-1 and 4-0 in their past six games those are their only two games of over 2.5 goals in that timeframe. This really could go either way and is such a hard game to call that taking the bigger odds on the Under makes sense.
Prediction: Under 2.5 (+120)
Best bet
Death, taxes, and Marco Verratti getting booked. Now 29-years-old, the Italian has been in Paris for 12 years and has become one of the world’s finest midfielders. His understanding of space is incredible to watch and the way he threads play shows his immense creativity.
He does have an Achilles heel and that’s his temperament. The hot-headed midfielder has a tendency to snap and has already picked up nine yellow cards in just 13 starts this season. In a game of this size and up against a midfield featuring Kroos, Modric and Casemiro it really feels like a dead cert.
Pick: Marco Verratti to get booked (+130)
