RB Leipzig vs Man City Picks and Predictions: City Will Concede in First-Leg Victory

It’s the final slate of first-leg games in this year’s Champions League and Wednesday’s action is headlined by RB Leipzig vs. Man City.

This is a very modern matchup, with a team owned by a global energy drink facing off against one owned by a Middle Eastern state.

Can Man City win and get one step closer to their Champions League dream? Check out my RB Leipzig vs. Man City free betting picks below to find out.

RB Leipzig vs Man City odds

RB Leipzig vs Man City picks and predictions

Wednesday dishes up the final two first-leg matches in the Champions League Round of 16 and the highlight is surely RB Leipzig vs. Manchester City. The reigning English champions Man City are available at odds of -124, a price we wouldn’t have seen many times in recent years as they struggle to find consistency domestically.

These are two teams who clearly have quality but are not quite performing at the levels we’re used to seeing from them. In their past five domestic league games, they have similar 3-1-1 records, something which clearly shows they’re both going through a similar streak of inconsistency.

The issue for both teams has been one of defensive fragility. Leipzig scored 13 goals in six UCL group matches but shipped nine goals, which tells you why they dropped points and finished second to Real Madrid.

Then you have Man City: they’ve allowed 24 goals in the Premier League this year. That’s a good record in many ways but not as much so when you consider they conceded 26 goals in the whole of last season. 

That leads us nicely to the best bet for this game, which is Man City to win but both teams to score. City — thanks in part to Erling Haaland — know how to score, having tacked up 60 in 24 EPL matches this season and notched another 14 in the UCL group stage.

It’ll be hard to keep them out and I’m certain that they’ll win this game, scoring multiple goals in the process. 

As it's been all season, City's issue is that they're not quite as defensively secure, in part because of Haaland, who doesn’t help them defensively like their false nine system did last year.

The brilliant Christopher Nkunku scored 16 goals in 22 games before he got injured in the World Cup build-up. He returned this past weekend and should he start this game, he’ll add another dimension to this team and cause City serious issues.

These teams have only met twice previously and the losing team managed to score both times. I’m expecting that to continue here with City taking the lead into the second leg.

My best bet: Man City to win + both teams to score (+200 at DraftKings) 

RB Leipzig vs Man City side analysis

If you read my best bet you’ll know I think City will do enough to win. They’re an older, wiser team with excellent coaching and a number of game-breaking players who’ll do enough to take his game out of Leipzig’s hands.

The home side will start with a 4-2-3-1 and their team features a number of familiar faces. Any fans of the Premier League will recognize Timo Werner who’ll be on the left flank for Leipzig and he’s going to be a threat to City despite that underwhelming stay in England. He’s scored eight goals in 22 games for Leipzig this year, while also contributing some crucial assists. 

There are also some faces we saw at the World Cup, including Germany’s David Raum at leftback and Josko Gvardiol, the central defender who starred in Croatia’s run to the semifinal stage. The key men are the aforementioned Nkunku as well as Dominik Szoboszlai, who’ll play to the right of him.

For Man City, we should see Kyle Walker make his Champions League debut for the season alongside Ruben Dias and potentially Manuel Akanji, who will be more than familiar with Leipzig having spent a number of years playing in Germany. 

Riyad Mahrez has performed well lately and should start on the right with Jack Grealish currently enjoying an extended run as a starter — something he’s paid back with some brilliant performances since January.

Phil Foden is likely to start on the bench once again as he continues to be in Pep Guardiola’s bad books. As usual, the key men for City will be the incredible Kevin De Bruyne and Erling Haaland, who are both the team’s principal creators and goal scorers.

RB Leipzig vs Man City Over/Under analysis

The bookies are expecting Over 2.5 goals and I am too, as my best bet suggests. With the quality of firepower that both teams possess, it’s clear why we would expect goals. 

We’ve seen plenty of goals in Leipzig home games this season, with 70% of their games at the Red Bull Arena going Over 2.5 goals.

There have been Over 2.5 goals in 66.7% of Man City’s league games this season with five of eight league games since the start of 2023 going Over this mark.

RB Leipzig vs Man City game info

RB Leipzig vs Man City key injuries

RB Leipzig: Peter Gulacsi GK (Out), Abdou Diallo CB (Out), Dani Olmo FWR (Out).
Man City: John Stones CB (Out).

RB Leipzig vs Man City weather

Temperatures will be in the upper-40s when this game kicks off after a dry day in East Germany.

Pages related to this topic