Real Madrid vs PSG Picks and Predictions: All to Play For at the Bernabeu

The Champions League Round of 16's most star-studded matchup swings to one of Europe's finest venues for the second leg Wednesday, as PSG head to the Bernabeu to face Real Madrid. 

When this draw first was made, all thoughts immediately went to PSG's young superstar Kylian Mbappe, who has long been expected to move to Madrid in the summer. Mbappe remained center stage in the first leg, with a fantastic goal the difference in a 1-0 win. He is, again, in the middle of it all as a foot injury suffered Monday has left his status in doubt. 

With one of Paris' stars in doubt, we break down the matchup and the Champions League betting value in our Real Madrid vs. PSG picks and predictions. 

Real Madrid vs PSG match odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

Compare Champions League odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Real Madrid vs PSG betting tips

• Prediction: Paris Saint-Germain (+155)
• Prediction: Under 3 (-115)
• Best bet: Paris Saint-Germain (+155)

Predictions made on 3/8/2022 at 7:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Real Madrid vs PSG game info

• Location: Santiago Bernabeu Stadium, Madrid, Spain
• Date: Wednesday, March 9, 2022
• Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
• TV: CBS, DAZN

Real Madrid vs PSG betting preview

Weather

There are some great conditions ahead for PSG and Real Madrid Wednesday night in Spain. It's expected to be a calm night with temperatures around 55 degrees Fahrenheit and 55% humidity. 

Injuries

Real Madrid: Marcelo LB (Questionable), Ferland Mendy LB (Out), Casemiro CM (Out).
PSG: Kylian Mbappe ST (Questionable), Sergio Ramos CB (Out), Ander Herrera CM (Out).

Real Madrid vs PSG predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Side analysis

With a front line straight out of FIFA, consisting of Mbappe, Neymar, and Lionel Messi, a fantastic squad bolstered by savvy free transfers, and one of the sport's best managers in Mauricio Pochettino, expectations were sky-high for PSG prior to this season.

Paris got out of their Champions League group without issue and boast a 12-point lead in Ligue 1, yet this season has been underwhelming. Pochettino's unhappiness and unsteady job status have been clear from the start, and Messi has yet to really settle, with just seven goals in 24 appearances across competitions.

Even Mbappe, who has been downright spectacular this season, has been a constant in the PSG drama with his contract thought of every time he does something breathtaking. Between PSG's season and their recent history of complete disasters in Europe, many expected another difficult moment against Madrid in the first leg. Instead, they were excellent. 

PSG dominated Madrid in the French capital, with a performance deserving of much more than the 1-0 scoreline. PSG looked like the best of Pochettino teams, pressing high and relentlessly, moving the ball rapidly, and, ultimately, playing like a team — something all too often lacking from PSG. 

Wednesday's visitors are the superior team, especially with Madrid missing pieces like Casemiro and Ferland Mendy, and were utterly dominant in the first meeting. There is enough to believe in PSG to advance but picking a side, it'll come down to whether they try and gut out a draw or attack and take their fate into their own hands. Nothing suggests PSG would do the former — not their squad, their manager, or their defensive stability. 

PSG's best chance at advancing will come in playing proactive, attacking soccer as they so often do. Between Madrid's absences and the likelihood of positive regression after the first leg's performance, we like their chances of being successful. 

Prediction: Paris Saint-Germain (+155)

Over/Under analysis

The effectiveness of Paris' high press certainly played a part, but we have to expect Madrid to attack with more intent than they did in Paris in the first leg. That effort was, really, just pathetic and almost non-existent, with the carrot of away goals no longer providing an incentive to push high. Madrid created just 0.1 xG from three shot-creating actions and zero shots on target.

The need for Madrid to play higher and open themselves up will create goal-scoring opportunities, whether that's from Madrid breaking down PSG or Paris springing a counter and punishing Madrid. Both of those factors, however, have us leaning to the Under.

The likelihood of Madrid effectively breaking PSG down and creating good opportunities doesn't appear to be all that high, after a completely muted showing in Paris. They will no doubt be more proactive going forward but there isn't much evidence to say intent will equal success. 

PSG's success on the counter, too, could be muted if Mbappe does miss out on the second leg. While Neymar and Messi are, obviously, phenomenal players, they aren't quite the counter-attacking threat Mbappe is. There may not be a better counter-attacking player on the planet than Mbappe and he has been central to everything for Paris this year, with more than three times as many goals (24) as the next closest player (Messi, 7) and a club-leading 15 assists, with Messi's 10 the next closest. 

Barring a collapse from Madrid, a push on this total would seem like the worst case for Under 3 bettors. Madrid won't have the ability to score multiple goals, while two goals for Paris would kill this tie off. 

Prediction: Under 3 (-115)

Best bet

Of course, Madrid will have to chase the deficit here, and the home factor is important, but there's no reason for PSG to be underdogs at +155. That is simply absurd and ignores the 90 minutes we've seen these two play already. 

The 1-0 scoreline in Paris' win doesn't tell anywhere close to the full story — a story of Paris dominating every phase.

PSG controlled nearly 60% of the ball and had nearly 200 passes more than Madrid. Their ball progression was more than double Madrid's, with PSG's progressive distance totaling 1,883 yards compared to Madrid's 915. That wasn't a product of Madrid trying to play long balls to bypass PSG's press, either, with Madrid attempting fewer long passes in that game than their per-game average in La Liga.

PSG successfully pressured the ball on 36.5% of attempts, while Madrid did the same just 23.5% of the time. Paris, and more specifically Marco Verratti, won the midfield battle and now Madrid are without their most important player in the center of the pitch in Casemiro.

Paris had 21 shots and forced six saves to Madrid's three shots, none of which were on target. They created 2.6 expected goals and an incredible 41 shot-creating actions. The difference between the two in front of goal would be ugly for even the most lopsided Premier League games, with Madrid, in comparison, creating 0.1 xG and just three shot-creating actions. 

Mbappe's status looms over this game and he has been PSG's best player throughout the season, but from a neutral's perspective, I'm much more comfortable depending on Neymar and Messi to pick up the slack for Mbappe than I am depending on Federico Valverde to pick up the slack for Casemiro. 

PSG have given us plenty of reasons to doubt them in big Champions Leagues over the years but that shouldn't factor in here. Not after such an impressive first leg and not at this price. Take the excellent value of backing the Parisians to win in Madrid. 

Pick: Paris Saint-Germain (+155)

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