Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig Predictions and Picks: Los Blancos Make Most of Second Leg

Spanish giants Real Madrid seek to defend a slim 1-0 advantage today when they host RB Leipzig for the second leg of their Champions League Round of 16 matchups. Our Champions League odds tab Madrid as the overwhelming favorite to come away with a victory.

Real Madrid will feel a bit fortunate to have avoided losing in the first leg, as they kept a clean sheet despite conceding 1.37 xG to their opponents. They’re also stinging a bit after a controversial draw at the weekend, but Carlo Ancelotti will be thrilled to see his injury list getting shorter and should have a strong squad to return to winning ways.

Those missed opportunities in the first leg for RB Leipzig loom large as they hit the road to the Santiago Bernabeu, but they’re coming off a strong 4-1 win at the weekend and possess the attacking prowess to get a goal and make things interesting.

Our Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig picks and predictions for Wednesday, March 6 explain why Los Blancos will cause real problems for a Leipzig side that must chase a result on the road. 

Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig best odds

Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig picks and predictions

Real Madrid have won all seven of their matches in the Champions League this season despite missing numerous key players in the first leg, which they were fortunate to walk away from with a victory.

RB Leipzig nearly opened the scoring inside of five minutes, when Benjamin Sesko had a terrific chance from near the penalty spot but hit it too close to Madrid keeper Andriy Lunin. Sesko put four efforts on goal that night, taking advantage of a partnership between a slow Nacho Fernandez and an out-of-position Aurelien Tchouameni.

He won’t get that luxury on Wednesday, as Antonio Rudiger has returned, putting in a pair of 90-minute shifts over the past week and a half. He will pair with Tchouameni to provide a much quicker and more stable backline for the hosts.

But more importantly, Jude Bellingham will be back in the midfield. He was suspended after being shown a red card this weekend when the referee blew time just as a ball came into the area. Bellingham headed home what he thought was the winner, only to be shown the red for his reaction and thus suspended for this weekend’s match.

That means he can go a full 90 minutes, and his threat means Leipzig must be much more cautious than they were at home. It also provides a much stronger threat for Madrid both in regards to scoring and linking up with Rodrygo and Vinicius Jr, each of whom registered four shots in the opening leg of the tie.

Real Madrid have lost just twice this season in all competitions, with both defeats coming at the hands of cross-city rivals Atletico Madrid. On the flip side, Leipzig have played nine matches since the calendar flipped, and they’ve won just three versus five defeats and a draw. Those three wins all came against sides in the bottom half of the Bundesliga table, including their 4-1 victory over VfL Bochum on Saturday.

After navigating a very long spell filled with key injuries, Real Madrid are finally nearing full health. Only three players are on the absentee list, and an extremely dominant side is getting stronger. They’re going against an inconsistent Leipzig side without two of their starting defenders and who must chase the win.

Real Madrid’s juice is far too high on the 3-way line, but TonyBet’s giving -121 odds for Madrid to win by a goal or more. We’ll bank on Los Blancos to win by multiple goals, with a one-goal victory returning our wager. 

My best bet: Real Madrid -1 (-121 at TonyBet)

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Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig same-game parlay

Real Madrid -1.5

Jude Bellingham to score or assist

Jude Bellingham 3+ shots on target

Benjamin Sesko 1+ shot on target

30% boost available

+900 +1,170 at bet365

We can’t parlay our best bet, so we’ll get a bit bolder for our same-game parlay and take Real Madrid to win by multiple goals. They’ve done so in two of their three Champions League outings at home this season, with the other match being a 1-0 win over Union Berlin that saw them score just once despite outshooting their opponent 32-4. 

Part of their goal-scoring antics will be powered by Bellingham, who’s been involved in a goal in all five of his UCL appearances this campaign, with four goals and three assists. 

Bellingham has taken 16 shots on 35 shot-creating actions and is facing a Leipzig defense that’s allowed the third-most shots of the 16 remaining teams. We’re going to back him to contribute to a goal and get at least three shots on the day.

Finally, I expect Sesko to find a way to put an effort on goal. Leipzig has the fourth-most shots on goal in the competition this season, and Sesko has put a shot on goal in each of his last three appearances, including the four in the first leg. 

This parlay pays out +900 at bet365, but you can take advantage of a 30% profit boost on any soccer SGP and bump that up to a tasty +1,170 payout!

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig side and Over/Under analysis

Taking Real Madrid on the 3-way line will require paying -175 or more, with no real movement on the line since it opened in mid-February. Leipzig’s price has dropped slightly, settling at +450 to get the upset, while the draw is returning a solid +360. 

Real Madrid have won all seven Champions League outings this season and have suffered just two defeats across all competitions. As for Leipzig, their win against a struggling Bochum this weekend ended a four-match away run without a win.

Leipzig have lost six of their last 11 road tilts in all competitions. They’re simply not equipped to get the win here, and I don’t see a draw on the cards for them either. 

The total opened with the Over 2.5 heavily juiced, and the 3.0 Asian total is now on offer in most places. The Over for that is still favored, currently sitting in the -130 range, while the Under is slightly into plus-odds territory. I’d lean Over here, although I’m not a huge fan of the price and would likely look to get a better one in live markets. 

Both sides have plenty of pace and lethal attacking threats, and Leipzig presents a problem for any team on set pieces due to their strikers' aerial prowess. These sides are both in the Top 4 in shots taken in the competition, and I expect plenty of scoring opportunities from two sides who love to run. 

Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig game info

Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig key injuries

Real Madrid: Thibaut Courtois GK (Out), Eder Militao D (Out), David Alaba D (Out).
RB Leipzig: Mohamed Simakan D (Out), Lukas Klostermann D (Out).

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