Real Sociedad vs PSG Predictions and Picks: Mbappe Comes to Play

Real Sociedad will be seeking to overturn a 2-0 deficit when they host PSG in Tuesday’s pivotal Champions League clash. Our Champions League odds show the Spanish side is slightly favored to get the win at home. 

With just one win in their last nine fixtures regardless of competition, Real Sociedad know they’re facing an uphill climb as they must win by at least two goals to avoid elimination. But they’ve yet to trail at home this season in the Champions League and will have a stronger attack available than what they fielded in the first leg.

With his future no longer lying in Paris, there’s been drama surrounding Kylian Mbappe. PSG manager Luis Enrique has hinted he might not start the star forward, but he may not be able to take that kind of risk with the demands placed on him regarding this competition.

Our Real Sociedad vs PSG picks and predictions for Tuesday, March 5 explain why this match is prime to be an extremely entertaining contest and a profitable one for bettors. 

Real Sociedad vs PSG best odds

Real Sociedad vs PSG picks and predictions

PSG’s relationship with Kylian Mbappe since he announced his departure this summer to Real Madrid has become somewhat icy. In fact, Enrique has benched him for long stretches in each of their last three matches. And in their 0-0 draw with Monaco on Friday, his withdrawal at halftime saw him sitting in the stands in street clothes after the break.

Now, Enrique has indicated Mbappe’s name may no longer be written on the team sheet in ink. “Soon, we will be playing without Kylian, so we need to get used to it,” Enrique said last week. “When I want to play him, I will; when I don’t, I won’t.”

That is a key reason why some markets have stayed friendly for bettors, and our best bet is going to take advantage of that. 

I don’t think Enrique can mess around and not start Mbappe. The Ligue 1 title race is all but over at this point, and the Champions League is the one jewel missing from the club’s crown. It’s been reported that he told Mbappe he would still be involved “for the big games” and Tuesday’s match certainly fits that bill.  

The entire PSG defense hopefully treated Gianluigi Donnarumma to a nice meal, or got him a gift, or did something kind for him this weekend. After all, the man did everything short of standing on his head to secure a draw as he dealt with a heavily rotated squad and injuries in his back line. The scoreless draw extended PSG’s unbeaten run to 20 matches in all competitions.

Things might not get any easier against a Real Sociedad side that failed to register a single shot on goal in the first leg. As such, they need a multi-goal win to either advance or force extra time, and they’ll be happy to see Mikel Oyarzabal back after missing that fixture.

Despite missing that match, the Spanish winger’s eight shots on target are the 14th-most in the competition this season, made even more impressive by the fact he’s taken just nine shots. Meanwhile, teammate Takefusa Kubo’s 17 key passes are the second most among all players in the competition.

Despite their creative wide players, Sociedad have struggled for goals, with just seven scored despite having 9.4 xG in the competition. That means they’ll likely throw a few more bodies forward to test the makeshift PSG defense — exposing their own injury-riddled backline in return. 

What does that mean for us? It means goals, likely from both sides. It also means Sociedad has nothing to lose, and the pace of Mbappe and Ousmane Dembele will have room to hurt them on the break. But this PSG side has struggled away from home in Europe this season, and they’ve conceded in their last 12 visits to Spain in the competition. 

Everything about this match screams 2-1 or 2-2 to me, and PSG would be more than content with either of those scores. I’m confident in both teams finding the back of the net with at least three goals scored on the night, and I’m thrilled to get plus-odds at TonyBet for that very result. 

My best bet: Over 2.5 goals and both teams to score - Yes (+108 at TonyBet)

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Real Sociedad vs PSG same-game parlay

Over 2.5 goals

Both teams to score - Yes

Kylian Mbappe to score or assist

Over 11.5 corners

+624 at FanDuel

Not only do I expect Mbappe to start, but I fully expect him to contribute to a goal in some capacity. He opened the scoring in the first leg, one of his seven shots on the night, and registered 11 touches in Sociedad’s penalty area. With more room to operate, he’ll be an even bigger threat in the second leg.

That first match saw a combined 16 corners taken, and you’ll see a lot of desperate defending at both ends, which should lead to another high corner count. Both teams rank in the Top 4 in corners taken so far in this competition, and we’ll bank on seeing at least 12 more in this one. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Real Sociedad vs PSG side and Over/Under analysis

The 3-way line has Real Sociedad priced between +150 and +160, after opening as high as +200 in mid-February. PSG’s price has shifted from +125 to +175, with the draw priced at +250 after originally being around +270.

I’m staying away from this one because all three options are priced about where they should be. Sociedad have the weapons going forward to pip goals and PSG will be bearing all the pressure, given their previous epic collapses — including their 6-1 capitulation to Barcelona. But they’ve also won just one of their last nine fixtures, and PSG has the better team and are unbeaten in their last 20. 

As for the total, it’s fairly evenly split on the 2.5 market. You’ll pay slightly more juice on the Under, believe it or not, in part because PSG’s last four matches — including the first leg — have each seen two or fewer goals. 

Real Sociedad’s last four matches since that first-leg defeat have seen the Over hit three times, with both teams scoring in each match. I’m expecting a similar outcome here, hence our best bet, and I anticipate the Over’s price shifting a bit more when lineups come out if Mbappe is included.  

Real Sociedad vs PSG game info

Real Sociedad vs PSG key injuries

Real Sociedad: Alvaro Odriozola D (Out), Martin Merquelanz F (Out), Carlos Fernandez F (Out).
PSG: Marquinhos D (Doubtful), Milan Skriniar D (Out), Presnel Kimpembe D (Out).

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