Spain vs Brazil Predictions and Picks: Offenses Minimized at Bernabeu

Two of the world’s best footballing nations meet this afternoon as Spain and Brazil do battle at the Santiago Bernabeu in Madrid. Our soccer betting odds have La Roja favored to win on the day.

 Luis de la Fuenta won’t be happy with his side’s performance on Friday against Colombia as his heavily-rotated squad suffered a shocking 1-0 defeat. They outshot the South American side and registered more expected goals but they put just three of their 13 efforts on goal and their six-match win streak came to an end. 

Brazil left Wembley Stadium on Saturday with a 1-0 victory over a favored England side with Euro 2024 aspirations. The 17-year-old Endrick picked up his first goal for the Selecao and Dorival Junior urged fans to temper their expectations of the young prodigy. 

Find out why we’re anticipating a low-scoring affair in our Spain vs. Brazil free betting picks for their international friendly on Tuesday, March 26.

Spain vs Brazil best odds

Spain		Brazil
+133	Moneyline	+190
+240	Draw	+240
Over 2.5 (-109)	Total	Under 2.5 (-122)

Odds courtesy of TonyBet on March 26, 2024.

Spain vs Brazil picks and predictions

When not facing the minnows of the world like Cyprus and Georgia, goals have been tough to come by for Spain. They failed to find the back of the net against Colombia and they scored just once against Norway in Euro qualifying back in October.

And even when Spain scores, it’s rare of late that their opponents do. They’ve conceded just four goals over their last eight matches and have yet to allow multiple goals in a match over their last nine outings.

Stretching back to their defeat to Morocco in the 2022 World Cup, both teams have scored in just four of their last 12 matches. All things considered, it's likely we see at least one clean sheet on the day.

A big issue for Spain has been finding a striker they can rely on. We're past the days of Fernando Torres and David Villa and they’ve yet to find a replacement for those two icons. Alvaro Morata has tried, but he’s unreliable and may not even start as he returns from illness.

But it takes two to tango, and Brazil haven’t exactly been stacking the scoresheet over the past year. Their win over England came courtesy of an 80th-minute goal from Endrick —their first goal in over 255 minutes of play. 

Dorival Junior will have to manage a minutes limitation on forwards Rodrygo and Vinicius Junior as both players look to make it back to Real Madrid without injury. Richarlison’s availability is uncertain as he deals with a knee problem, which also gives him few weapons upon which to rely.

However, his midfield is strong and the back line performed well against England. They also likely won’t have to deal with Rodri, the conductor of the Spanish midfield. That will make it easier to handle their attack as nobody can fully replace his vision or deep-lying playmaking ability. 

This match has the feel of a 0-0 or 1-0 final score, and there are simply too many question marks with the Spanish attack and too little depth with Brazil’s front line for me to back goals. 

My best bet: Both team to score: No (-105 at TonyBet)

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Spain vs Brazil same-game parlay

Both teams to score: No

Spain 5+ corners

Under 3 goals

+330 at FanDuel

Spain have attempted at least five corners in nine of their last 10 matches as they cannot often clinically finish and tend to shoot from distance. Brazil conceded seven corners to England and I like them to concede at least five as they look to hold Spain at bay. 

I don’t see either side winning in a blowout here. As we’re backing at least one team to come away without a goal we’ll bank on neither side finding more than two on the day.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Spain vs Brazil side and Over/Under analysis

Spain are favored to win on home soil as indicated by their 3-way moneyline price of +115 across the board. Despite winning 11 of their last 12 friendlies against European nations, Brazil are third-choice with +250 odds while the draw is priced as high as +240.

These nations haven’t played each other in 11 years and Brazil have outscored their last 12 European opponents 26-4 in friendlies. However, Spain are 6-1-1 in their last eight matches while Brazil have just one victory in their last five. 

The total of 2.5 goals sees the Under the favored side, priced at -130 at best with the Over getting plus-money odds. The aforementioned scoring issues for Spain are a part of that, as are Brazil’s recent results.

Only one of Selecao’s last six matches have seen 3+ goals. Spain’s recent matches have seen more goals, but scoring a combined 19 goals in four matches against Georgia and Cyprus has more to do with that. In their other six matches in the past calendar year, La Roja scored only five goals while conceding just four. 

Spain vs Brazil game info

Spain vs Brazil key injuries

Spain: Rodri M (Doubtful), Alvaro Morata F (Questionable), Jose Gaya D (Out).
Brazil: Richarlison F (Doubtful), Rodrygo F (Questionable), Vinicius Jr F (Probable).

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