Spain vs Italy Picks and Predictions: Back-and-Forth Blunders

Two European giants look to move on from a very disappointing 2022 campaign when Spain and Italy square off in today's Nations League semifinal matchup in the Netherlands. 

After being dumped out of last year’s World Cup, Spain’s side has seen numerous changes. Not only have they replaced their manager, but a large number of players have either been dropped or retired. Luis de la Fuente must find a source of goals if he wants to lead his side to the final. Meanwhile, Roberto Mancini’s men failed to qualify for the World Cup altogether, and now hope to get revenge for their loss to Spain in the 2021 Nations League semis. 

Both teams have multiple question marks as to who will take the pitch on Thursday evening, but we’re here to explain why that helps you from a betting angle in our Spain vs. Italy betting picks and predictions. 

Spain vs Italy best odds

Odds courtesy of bet365 on June 15, 2023.

Spain vs Italy picks and predictions

De la Fuente’s takeover from former manager Luis Enrique hasn’t gone as well as some would have hoped. After their poor performance at the World Cup, they’ve begun their qualification for the Euro 2024 tournament by losing at Scotland in their second match. They looked toothless at times, managing just eight shots and putting only three of those on target. 

Spain’s attack in general of late has lacked teeth. While they did manage seven goals against Costa Rica in the World Cup, they probably should’ve saved a few of those for the matches to come. They managed just one goal from Alvaro Morata in a draw with Germany, before only one more — again from Morata — in their defeat to Japan. Their match against Morocco in the Round of 16 saw them go 120 minutes without scoring en route to a penalty shootout defeat.

It was a promising sign to defeat Norway 3-0 to open the Euro qualifiers, especially with players other than Morata supplying the goals. But it’s their midfield that will be of bigger concern for de la Fuenta on Thursday. Sergio Busquets retired after the World Cup from international duty, and Rodri stepped into the role as many expected. 

But Rodri might not be able to go the full 90 minutes, if he starts at all. He just played 90 minutes in the Champions League final on Saturday and celebrated his winning goal in Manchester City’s parade on Monday. Even if he starts, they certainly won’t have Pedri in the midfield as he was left off the team due to injury. They’re also likely without forward Dani Olmo. 

Spain’s midfield has been the heart of their team for as long as I can remember. Were they to have both Rodri and Pedri, I could see them taking advantage of an Italy midfield and defense that will likely be tired as well. Mancini has numerous players who played in the Champions League final for Inter Milan or in the Europa Conference League final with Fiorentina. Nicolo Barella may not start, but if he does, probably won’t go a full match. In addition, he will be without Sandro Tonali, who is suiting up for the Under-21 Euro team.

Italy opened their Euro qualification run with a 2-1 defeat to England, and followed it with a win over lowly Malta. Two of their three goals came from Mateo Retegui, a 24-year old who plays his football in Argentina. While Ciro Immobile is back in the team, it’s concerning that the Azzurri are relying on a forward who can’t even cut it in a European league.

With a spot in the final on the line, and key players dealing with injury and fatigue, both sides are likely to set up cautiously and look to manage minutes ahead of a possible period of extra time. Combine that with the inability to find consistent goal scorers, and I’m taking the Under here. However, I don’t want to lay the juice for the standard 2.5 Under, so I’ll go with the Asian line of 2.25 instead.

My best bet: Asian goal line Under 2.25 (-120 at bet365)

Spain vs Italy side analysis

Spain’s 2-0 loss to Scotland saw them start Euro qualifying with a win and a loss. Pedri will miss the match, as will Juan Bernat who withdrew from the team. Jordi Alba and Jesus Navas were both recalled at fullback, and could start as well. Dani Olmo will be key to their attack, but he’s dealing with a muscle injury and is unlikely to be fit enough to start. 

Italy began their Euro qualifying with a win and a defeat as well. The Azzurri may be without Alessandro Bastoni, as the Inter defender was dealing with a fever on Wednesday and will also be battling fatigue. They also won’t have forward Domenico Berardi or midfielder Matteo Pessina. 

Italy’s midfield will have plenty of experience with Jorginho and Marco Verratti alongside Barella, while their fullbacks will give Spain some issues. Spain are favored on the 3-way line but at +120 it’s not an overwhelming number. I see real value in both the draw at +220 and in an Italy draw no bet wager at +135. This should be a cagey affair, and Italy have won or drawn in four of the last six meetings.  

Spain vs Italy Over/Under analysis

The Under 2.5 is juiced for a reason. Neither of these teams have any one player they can consistently rely on to score. While Morata has tried to be that player for Spain, the number of chances he misses is astonishing. 

In Spain’s last 12 competitive matches, they’ve scored a total of 22 goals — but seven of those came against Costa Rica. Seven of those 12 matches have seen two or fewer goals scored, and Spain have scored one or fewer goals in eight of them. 

The same thing could be said for Immobile as was said for Morata. Even with him back in the fold for Thursday’s match, it’s not a guarantee of any reward at the offensive end. Italy have just 11 goals in their last eight competitive fixtures, with five of those matches seeing no more than two goals. Italy have also kept four clean sheets in that span.

Our best bet explains why we’re on the Asian Under, but if you’re going to play the Under 2.5 I would parlay it. The Over offers a decent price for those willing to take it, but it’s hard to see this match going differently than many before; four of the last six meetings between these two sides have seen exactly two goals scored. 

Spain vs Italy game info

Spain vs Italy key injuries

Spain: Pedri M (Out), Rodri M (Questionable), Dani Olmo F (Doubtful).
Italy: Alessandro Bastoni D (Questionable), Domenico Berardi F (Out), Matteo Pessina M (Out). 

Spain vs Italy weather

Thursday’s match in Enschede will be perfect. Sunny skies and temperatures in the mid-70s will greet all involved, with wind gusts hitting around 20 mph. There is no rain anticipated anytime during the day. 

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