Sporting CP vs Manchester City Picks and Predictions: Sterling, City Prove Too Much

Last year Manchester City got close to their first Champions League trophy but fell at the final hurdle. As magnificent as Man City is, it’s the only thing missing on their resume and it’s become the club's main focus. 

Their first knockout game in this Champions League run is a trip to face Sporting in Lisbon. Can Guardiola’s team get an advantage to take back to Manchester? Don’t miss our Sporting vs. Man City tips and predictions.

Sporting CP vs Manchester City match odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

Compare Champions League odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Sporting CP vs Manchester City betting tips

• Prediction: Manchester City (-350)
• Prediction: Under 2.5 (+130)
• Best bet: Manchester City win to nil (+110)

Predictions made on 2/14/2022 at 6:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Sporting CP vs Manchester City game info

• Location: Estadio Jose Alvalade, Lisbon, Portugal
• Date: Tuesday, February 15, 2022
• Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
• TV: Paramount+, DAZN

Sporting CP vs Manchester City betting preview

Weather

Man City will relish their trip to Lisbon. The weather will be just below 60 degrees at kick-off and sunny, albeit with some clouds.

Injuries

Sporting CP: Pedro Goncalves (Doubtful).
Manchester City: Jack Grealish (Out), Gabriel Jesus (Out), Cole Palmer (Out), Kyle Walker (Out).

Sporting CP vs Manchester City predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Side analysis

When Man City faced Chelsea in the Champions League final last year, it felt like it was finally time for City to get the European title that their incredible performances warrant. As sensational as Man City have been in the Premier League, it is the one question mark over Pep Guardiola’s reign at the club, that they are yet to lift the most famous trophy in club soccer. That day in Porto saw City fall apart and outmanoeuvred by Chelsea. Now, the club is back in Portugal, although in Lisbon not Porto, and ready to put the record straight as the knockout round begins. 

The sportsbooks have Man City as major favorites but there may be a reason for caution. This team was also expected to steamroll Lyon in the semi-final of the Champions League two years ago, and they got outsmarted by a weaker team. That said, it shouldn’t be the case on Tuesday.

Sporting sits second in the Primeira Liga, six points behind Porto and four ahead of Benfica. They haven’t been able to match the goal-scoring exploits of those clubs but have only conceded 15 goals in the league this year, proving that they’re a tough team to beat.

They can’t be taken for granted, having finished second in their Champions League group and knocking out Borussia Dortmund in the process. It’s a tough ask but you never know, maybe Ruben Amorim could be able to pull off something special. He’ll certainly look to minimize City’s threat with a 3-4-2-1 formation.

Despite having three players sent off at the weekend in a game against their rivals Porto, those players are available for this game. The most important of those is Sebastian Coates. The former Liverpool defender has become a lynchpin in this team and marshals the defense. 

Man City’s formation won’t be a surprise with Guardiola almost certain to deploy a 4-3-3. The question, as ever, will be who starts the game with ‘Pep roulette’ likely to be a factor again. Ruben Dias and Aymeric Laporte will start in the center of defense, the two players being key to their defensive success this season, with City conceding just 14 in the league in all season.

I imagine that Raheem Sterling, Phil Foden and Riyad Mahrez will start in the front three, purely because we know that Jack Grealish and Gabriel Jesus are injured. We should also see Rodri anchor the midfield with Kevin De Bruyne and Bernardo Silva alongside him.

For all of the brilliance of De Bruyne and Silva, it’s Raheem Sterling that has been a difference-maker of late. After a fantastic Euro 2020, he returned to his club and struggled to reclaim his international form. There were reports linking him with a move away from Manchester but he now looks like a superstar again. 10 games in 15 league starts and two in the Champions League show his ability and having scored three at the weekend against Norwich he’s in form too. 

Given City’s imperious form, it’s impossible to look beyond them winning and taking the advantage back to Manchester. The odds of -350 are so short that it’s probably not worth betting on it, however, with better value to be found elsewhere.

Prediction: Manchester City (-350)

Over/Under analysis

Given that Man City has scored 61 goals this season, there are good reasons why Over 2.5 goals is the favorite. The better value is on the Under, however. Both clubs as mentioned have the best defensive records in their respective leagues, with both teams just shipping a combined 29 games in the league this season. 

You can’t make a direct comparison given the differences in both domestic competitions but it’s worth noting that Under 2.5 goals has landed in 72.7% of all Sporting’s home games in the league this year. These are two good sides but given the importance of not losing this opening match, it’s going to be a tight and cagey affair, at least in the first half. Take the Under 2.5 goals here, given Sporting’s record at home, it’s the smart play and comes at a big +130 price.

Prediction: Under 2.5 (+130)

Best bet

Odds of -350 on Manchester City winning aren’t that attractive but there’s one way to get those to a far juicier price and one about even money. At odds of +110, you can back Man City to win to nil. They’ve won their past two games and kept clean sheets in the process and given the great defensive ability of both teams it’s likely to be close. I’d be tempted to back City to win 2-0 at odds of +550 but it’s safer to just take the +110 and back Pep’s men to win to nil.

Pick: Manchester City win to nil (+110)

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