The USA and Canada will meet at SoFi Stadium on Sunday to determine the third-place finisher in the latest iteration of the CONCACAF Nations League.
The Americans saw their perfect record in Nations League knockout matches come to an end with Panama snatching a stunning victory deep into stoppage time. The Canadians fell to the hands of Mexico after conceding just seconds into the match and saw their six-match unbeaten run snapped.
My USA vs. Canada predictions and free betting picks for Sunday, March 23 explain why we're unlikely to see these teams held goalless as they were in the semifinals.
USA vs Canada picks and predictions
My best bet: Over 2.5 + Both teams to score (+108 at TonyBet)
My analysis
While both USA and Canada were held scoreless in their respective CONCACAF Nations League semifinal matches against Panama and Mexico, it wasn’t for a lack of opportunities.
Panama set up in an extremely compact 5-4-1 with a high defensive line. They utilized the narrow SoFi Stadium field to their advantage, preventing penetration and forcing the Americans into difficult chances.
Canada was put in a tougher situation, conceding inside 60 seconds after a poor throw-in and then having to try to break down a Mexican side defending the lead. El Tri utilized a 3-4-2-1 that often resembled a 5-4-1 out of possession, soaking up pressure and hitting the counter with pace. Canada struggled to create opportunities, putting just one of 11 shots on target despite dominating possession.
Thankfully for fans, we won’t see that kind of clash of styles on Sunday. These sides want to be on the ball and utilize pressure to get it back when possession is lost. Both teams utilize pace in the wide areas, have dynamic playmakers who want to get into space, and will look to force turnovers in the midfield.
What both teams also have right now are question marks in defense. The Americans only conceded three shots against Panama, the last of which was a 94th-minute goal many feel Matt Turner should’ve stopped. However, the USMNT defense was challenged all night with long balls into the final third as they pushed bodies forward, and Turner is in poor form.
For Canada, it was a similar story. The early goal caught them out, and then they were put in tough situations every time Mexico launched the ball forward. Goalkeeper Dayne St. Clair also had his positioning questioned on Raul Jimenez’s free-kick goal in the 75th minute. There are also major concerns about the midfield depth.
I expect we'll see plenty of rotation for both managers as well. The Americans are dealing with a real injury crisis at striker, but we'll likely see Gio Reyna added to the starting XI to create a few more chances. He and Christian Pulisic will be a constant threat going forward.
For Canada, the pace of Alphonso Davies will put pressure on the American fullbacks, where depth will be a concern. The USMNT will also be wary of the goal-scoring threat of Jonathan David, who has been involved in 33 goals for Lille this season.
These teams battled in a friendly back in September, which the Canadians took in a 2-1 victory. They also met in the 2023 Gold Cup Final, a match that was 1-1 after regulation but featured a combined 11 shots in the second half.
The creativity these teams possess won’t be stifled as we saw on Thursday night. Both teams can apply even more pressure on the compact SoFi playing surface. They will utilize turnovers and pace to generate opportunities, and we’ll see a much more entertaining match with goals on both sides.
Bet on soccer at TonyBet
One of Canada’s favourite sportsbooks for soccer, join TonyBet, which offers a 100% deposit match (up to $350) for new bettors!
Not available in Ontario.
USA vs Canada odds
USA vs Canada live odds
 USA |
 Canada |
|
|---|---|---|
| +104 | Moneyline | +204 |
| +250 | Draw | +250 |
| Over 2.5 (-120) | Total | Under 2.5 (-125) |
Odds courtesy of TonyBet.
USA vs Canada side and Over/Under analysis
- The Americans are +104 on the 3-way line, with Canada available at +204 and the draw fetching +250.
- There is some value in backing Canada to get a result here. The Americans are dealing with serious injury concerns, and they are the only side of the two with a proven goal-scorer at striker.
- The total of 2.5 goals is almost evenly split, with the Over at -121 and the Under at -125.
- Prior to the 2-1 friendly last September, the previous five meetings between these sides saw two or fewer goals scored in regulation.
How to watch USA vs Canada
| Location | SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date | Sunday, 3-23-2025 |
| Time | 6:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | Paramount+ |
USA vs Canada key injuries
USA: Antonee Robinson D (Out), Ricardo Pepi F (Out), Sergino Dest D (Out), Haji Wright F (Out), Folarin Balogun F (Out), Johnny Cardoso M (Out), Auston Trusty D (Out).
Canada: Richie Laryea (Out).
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
